Sharks (World rank: #66) vs. Havan Liberty (World rank: #83) - 4:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Sharks (-200) | Havan Liberty (+160)
Map Handicap: Sharks -1.5 (+175) | Havan Liberty +1.5 (-230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-115)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the CBCS Elite League 2021 Season 2 Playoffs.
- Sharks - Rating at event: real 1.42 | Lucaozy 1.21 | zevy 1.16 | jnt 1.06 | pancc 1.05
- Sharks - Rating past three months: Lucaozy 1.17 | zevy 1.13 | pancc 1.03 | real 0.99 | jnt 0.97
- Havan Liberty - Rating at event: ALLE 1.28 | dok 1.25 | remix 1.12 | drg 1.07 | skullz 1.02
- Havan Liberty - Rating past three months: ALLE 1.18 | dok 1.15 | remix 1.09 | drg 1.09 | skullz 1.06
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never played each other. Havan Liberty acquired skullz from TeamOne back in July, so he was not on the server when the teams played a map against each other back in April. Sharks did win that best-of-one 16-6 on Dust2, and pancc led the way with 19 kills and a 1.33 Rating.
Projected Maps:
Sharks removes Overpass
Havan Liberty removes Mirage
Sharks picks Vertigo
Havan Liberty picks Inferno
Sharks removes Ancient
Havan Liberty removes Dust2
Nuke is left over.
Sharks - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 78.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.4% round win percent after receiving first death
Sharks - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (8 maps): zevy +38 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | Lucaozy +15 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | pancc +9 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Sharks - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.9% round win percent after receiving first death
Sharks - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): Lucaozy +17 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | zevy +24 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | pancc +5 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | jnt +8 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Havan Liberty - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 80.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 20.0% round win percent after receiving first death
Havan Liberty - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): dok -3 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | ALLE +6 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | remix +2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Havan Liberty - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 81.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 33.3% round win percent after receiving first death
Havan Liberty - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): ALLE +4 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | drg +5 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | skullz +5 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Analysis:
The second series of the day is projected as a blowout, so this first match-up seems to be the one where we have a decision to make. Sharks are currently second place in the South American RMR standings, and this tournament is their chance to take the lead from MIBR, which could be crucial since only one team is guaranteed a spot in the PGL Major Stockholm. I have Sharks winning this series 2-1, but the upset potential is definitely there for Havan Liberty, who are still in the mix in fifth place for the RMR standings.
The map pool is not cut-and-dry for these teams, especially now that we are into the playoffs and teams might strategically flip the script. Both teams like to play Vertigo and Inferno, so it would make sense to see both of those maps in the pool. Overpass and Mirage should be the initial bans as well, but overall, I am not putting too much weight into the projected maps since we saw teams really switch things up on Thursday.
My first thought when I look at the Draftkings pricing is that zevy is way too cheap based on his potential upside with the AWP. Lucaozy also seems underpriced and stacking those two players makes a ton of sense at these prices since they are the consistent fraggers on Sharks. Pancc and real are both solid options, but their pricing makes them pretty unappealing for this slate. Jnt is usually not the player to target on Sharks, so he is not a priority for me today. I think we could be in for a tight series, so having some exposure to Havan Liberty could be the move. I like the idea of mixing in ALLE with two players from Sharks, and I also think remix is just as good if not a better option that might have lower ownership than ALLE. This could be a messy series and a lot of these guys have potential, but zevy, Lucaozy, remix and ALLE are my focus. There is not much value in the next series, so this would also be the spot for taking risks on punt plays, like skullz.
MIBR (World rank: #56) vs. KG Network (World rank: #103) - 6:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: MIBR (-4550) | KG Network (+1500)
Map Handicap: MIBR -1.5 (-675) | KG Network +1.5 (+425)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+450) | Under 2.5 (-750)
- This is a best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of the CBCS Elite League 2021 Season 2 Playoffs.
- MIBR - Rating at event: chelo 1.55 | boltz 1.44 | exit 1.31 | shz 1.26 | yel 1.16
- MIBR - Rating past three months: chelo 1.12 | boltz 1.12 | exit 1.03 | yel 1.02 | shz 0.97
- KG Network - Rating at event: UnK 1.18 | lukz 1.12 | segalla 1.11 | vLa 1.11 | hoax 1.10
- KG Network - Rating past three months: UnK 1.10 | lukz 1.09 | segalla 1.04 | vLa 1.04 | hoax 1.04
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Projected Maps:
MIBR removes Nuke
KG Network removes Overpass
MIBR picks Mirage
KG Network picks Ancient
MIBR removes Dust2
KG Network removes Inferno
Vertigo is left over.
MIBR - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 6-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 69.9% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.7% round win percent after receiving first death
MIBR - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): yel +47 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | exit +29 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | chelo -11 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | boltz +9 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
MIBR - Key stats on Ancient past three months (7 maps): 2-5 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 70.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 25.3% round win percent after receiving first death
MIBR - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (7 maps): boltz +21 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | chelo +10 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
KG Network - Key stats on Mirage past three months (1 maps): 1-0 W/L record, 100.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.4% round win percent after receiving first death
KG Network - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (1 maps): lukz +15 K/D Diff, 1.79 Rating | hoax +5 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | UnK +4 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
KG Network - Key stats on Ancient past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill, 40.7% round win percent after receiving first death
KG Network - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (2 maps): lukz +8 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | vLa +11 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | UnK +13 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | segalla +1 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Analysis:
Would I bet on MIBR as a (-4550) moneyline favorite? Never. But for DFS, the prize pools are not nearly big enough for us to even consider fading MIBR here. They are a much more talented team that KG Network, plus they are in first place for the South American RMR standings, so they need to win on Friday to maintain that lead. The odds for MIBR to sweep are (-675), meaning the implied odds give them an 87.1% chance of sweeping, so I am not going out on a limb when I say this should be an easy 2-0 victory with not much to talk about.
We cannot be certain what these teams will decide for maps during the playoffs, but Nuke and Overpass make sense as the initial bans. Mirage is the most played map for this MIBR roster, and I expect them to pick it in this spot. KG Network picked Ancient in their most recent series against GKC, and they won 16-6, so I think they will go for it again on Friday. MIBR is obviously a much tougher opponent than GKC, but Ancient is the one map that KG Network could maybe hope to steal from MIBR since Nuke should be insta-banned. Vertigo would then make sense as the decider map in this scenario.
I am stacking three from MIBR in my lineups as much as possible. I am finding my value from the first series, because I really do not want exposure to KG Network. Chelo is very active on the map and has the most upside of anyone on MIBR, though his $10,400 price tag is pretty expensive. Boltz is also in great form right now, but I would rather spend the extra $400 to get chelo if I had to choose one, although both look like strong plays. Yel could be in for a big day with the AWP, especially since we will likely see Mirage, which is one of his best maps. I think that exit looks like an excellent value at $8,000 for this match-up, while shz is my least favorite option on MIBR. Lukz, UnK, and segalla are all cheap enough that I would consider them on most slates, but not really in this match-up as a significant underdog. Like I said, do not overthink this one on Draftkings because MIBR should roll, and the prize pools are simply too small to take a massive risk.
**Favorite Stacks: MIBR, Sharks
**Favorite CPT plays: Lucaozy, chelo, yel, ALLE, boltz, real
**Favorite value plays: zevy, exit, remix