BIG (World rank: #11) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #23) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-210) | Evil Geniuses (+165)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+150) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-190)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.12 | gade 1.10 | tabseN 1.09 | k1to 0.96 | tiziaN 0.94
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.05 | MICHU 1.02 | CeRq 0.98 | Brehze 0.96 | daps N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did play in April 2021 at FunSpark ULTI and BIG swept 2-0 (16-13 Dust2 / 16-13 Nuke), but XANTARES was on BIG instead of gade, and daps was not filling in for stanislaw, so both lineups have changed. TabseN led the way in that series with 50 kills and a 1.28 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
Evil Geniuses removes Vertigo
BIG removes Ancient
Evil Geniuses picks Inferno
BIG picks Dust2
Evil Geniuses removes Nuke
BIG removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
BIG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (10 maps): 5-5 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 73.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (10 maps): tabseN -5 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | k1to -4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | syrsoN +7 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | gade (5 maps with HYENAS) +14 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): 12-5 W/L record, 47.1% pistol round win percent, 73.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): tabseN +38 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | | syrsoN +72 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | gade (3 maps with HYENAS) +9 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
BIG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 4-8 W/L record, 54.2% pistol round win percent, 68.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
BIG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): syrsoN 0 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating | gade (8 maps with HYENAS) +43 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 66.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): MICHU +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Brehze -6 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 1-3 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 72.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): CeRq +7 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Evil Geniuses - Key stats on Mirage past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Evil Geniuses - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (3 maps): oBo +4 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | Brehze +8 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | MICHU +12 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | CeRq +6 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Evil Geniuses win 2-1. This is a tough series to call because gade is making his debut with BIG to replace XANTARES, while daps is standing in for Evil Geniuses. Gade played for North for a few years, but that organization ceased operations in February 2021, so he showcased his talents with HYENAS and proved that he is still a talented and consistent player at 26 years of age. Daps used to play professional CS:GO, but he switched to play VALORANT in October 2020, and then in June 2021 he announced his retirement from playing. Several days later, daps returned to CS:GO as the head coach of Evil Geniuses. For now, he is standing in for stanislaw, who temporarily stepped down from the roster. Daps used to be the IGL for NRG, where he was teammates with Brehze and CeRq, so he is certainly a familiar face.
With all of that out of the way, I think that Evil Geniuses are fine leaving Dust2 in the map pool and banning Vertigo instead because Dust2 is a map that daps is likely comfortable on. BIG have been banning Ancient recently, which should leave Inferno open as the map pick for Evil Geniuses. BIG have been willing to play Inferno a bit as of late, but I do give Evil Geniuses an edge on that map if it is played. BIG would have the edge on Dust2, but I could even see EG stealing that map. Mirage would then make sense as the decider map, which is another map that could go either way. I think that BIG is certainly in a better place than EG right now given that gade is seen as a long-term solution for them, while daps is only a temporary replacement for EG. Still, these teams are pretty evenly matched and I’m not sure that BIG should be (-200) moneyline favorites in this spot. Also, gade is tasked with replacing the star rifler for BIG, while daps is filling in for a player that had really been struggling, so any impact that daps finds could be crucial. On Draftkings, the pricing on BIG seems to be way too high. It is difficult to justify spending up for syrsoN when s1mple is in the same price range. Gade also seems overpriced given that HYENAS did not face as tough of competition as BIG will face at ESL Pro League. I see this match-up as a near coin flip, so I would rather ride with the underdogs to save some salary for the studs in the other series.
Favorite Draftkings Play: CeRq ($6,400)
CeRq was in his best form all year at ESL Pro League S13 with a 1.06 Rating and a +20 K/D Difference despite his team losing a majority of their maps and finishing the event tied for last place. He looked good at IEM Summer back in June, and I think that he will continue to get back to being in his 2020 form where he was a consistent option on this team especially now that oBo and MICHU are settled in. Daps being in the lineup feels like a good thing for CeRq specifically considering that daps was his former IGL on NRG. We might not get a lot of kills from daps, but that might mean that the others pick up the slack, and CeRq would be a prime candidate for that. Beyond any narrative, I think that we could see Dust2 in this series, and CeRq is the top option on his team on that map with the AWP in his hands. His salary also seems too low given the fact that EG could definitely be a live underdog against a team that has a brand new player to work into their lineup. I don’t love this match-up for DFS given the top options seem to be overpriced, particularly on the BIG side, so I would rather look for value here, and CeRq looks like an excellent choice at $6,400. I also really like Brehze for similar reasons, though Dust2 is not a great map for Brehze, so I prefer CeRq more. Stacking either side of this match-up does not seem very reasonable to me given the pricing.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Brehze ($5,800) | oBo ($8,800) | MICHU ($7,800) | tabseN ($8,200) | k1to ($6,800)
Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #65) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-550) | Fnatic (+400)
Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-140) | Fnatic +1.5 (+115)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+160) | Under 2.5 (-200)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.36 | electronic 1.16 | B1T 1.12 | Perfecto 1.05 | Boombl4 0.92
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: Brollan 1.23 | mezii 1.23 | Jackinho 1.06 | KRIMZ 0.95 | ALEX N/A
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. Fnatic swept 2-0 (16-13 Inferno / 16-9 Nuke) when the teams last faced each other in April 2020 at ESL Pro League S11. However, flamie was still on NAVI instead of B1T, and fnatic had flusha, JW and Golden on their roster instead of Jackinho, mezii and ALEX, so there have been many changes which makes those results pretty irrelevant.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Nuke
NAVI removes Vertigo
Fnatic picks Inferno
NAVI picks Dust2
Fnatic removes Mirage
NAVI removes Ancient
Overpass is left over
NAVI - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): s1mple +89 K/D Diff, 1.49 Rating | electronic +36 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | B1T +11 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (15 maps): 7-8 W/L record, 53.3% pistol round win percent, 72.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (15 maps): s1mple +113 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | electronic +21 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Perfecto +18 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | B1T +19 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 88.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NAVI - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): B1T +35 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | s1mple +19 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Perfecto +1 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Fnatic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 67.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Fnatic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): Brollan +11 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | KRIMZ +6 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Jackinho +3 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | mezii (12 maps with Endpoint) +19 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Fnatic - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (0 maps): N/A
Fnatic- Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (0 maps): mezii (11 maps with Endpoint) 42 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Fnatic- Key stats on Overpass past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 68.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Fnatic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (2 maps): Brollan +14 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | Jackinho +7 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | mezii (14 maps with Endpoint) +98 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
NAVI wins 2-0. In July, we had the first LAN event of the year with IEM Cologne, and NAVI took first place and the $400,000 prize, which also made them the number one team in the world rankings. ESL Pro League is probably not the most important event of the year for a team like NAVI, but they are still considered the best team in the world for a reason, and they will probably dominate Fnatic. They did not have the best showing at ESL Pro League S13, but they were playing with a six-man roster at the time, and B1T looks much better than flamie did, so this season should be more favorable for them. Fnatic recently shook things up when they decided to drop their IGL, Golden, as well as one of their long time fan favorites, JW. ALEX is their new IGL, and we have not seen him play since the failed Cloud9 roster disbanded in March. Mezii was also a part of that C9 roster, but he has spent his time smurfing in tier two on Endpoint, and his stats for the year look healthy as a result. I do think that this Fnatic roster has some potential, but their first match with a new roster against an extremely tough opponent could get ugly.
Inferno seems to be the most likely map choice for Fnatic based on what they have done in the past, but who knows what the plan will be with their new roster. NAVI have looked better on Mirage than Dust2, but Dust2 seems to be their preference, and that will likely continue considering Fnatic have not won a single time on that map in 2021. Overpass could be the decider map, but I doubt this series makes it past two maps as long as NAVI is not completely trolling.
Favorite Draftkings Play: B1T ($8,000)
I am going with B1T as my favorite here based on the pricing and match-up. He has had a Rating greater than one in every event he has played in since flamie got benched in April, and he continues to improve with his best two events being his last two played. S1mple and electronic should smash here as well, but I think that B1T is capable of top fragging over them, especially in a soft match-up, and his price seems too cheap at $8,000 for this spot. I am prioritizing all of the spend-up options on NAVI for this slate, but B1T is still underrated and keeps getting better every time we see him play, so I will keep riding with him until Draftkings raises their prices appropriately. He is only $400 more than Perfecto, and I would much rather get to B1T on any slate, though Perfecto still looks fine. Boombl4 is never a safe option, so I do not love him at $6,800 here, but he could still be in for a solid day if NAVI completely outclass Fnatic. I am not tempted to play anybody on the Fnatic side in this match-up.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
s1mple ($10,600) | electronic ($9,200) | Perfecto ($7,600) | Boombl4 ($6,800)
FaZe (World rank: #4) vs. mousesports (World rank: #12) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: FaZe (-115) | mousesports (-110)
Map Handicap: FaZe -1.5 (+230) | mousesports +1.5 (-325)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group C
- FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.12 | rain 1.03 | olofmeister 0.93 | karrigan 0.90
- mousesports - Rating past three months: ropz 1.23 | frozen 1.13 | Bymas 1.00 | dexter 0.95 | acoR 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because coldzera was still on FaZe instead of olofmeister when these teams faced in April at DreamHack Masters Spring 2021. Mousesports won that series 2-1 (7-16 Mirage / 16-5 Nuke / 19-17 Overpass), though Twistzz was the top performer with 71 Kills and a 1.23 Rating across three maps.
Map Projections:
mousesports removes Overpass
FaZe removes Vertigo
mousesports picks Nuke
FaZe picks Ancient
mousesports removes Mirage
FaZe removes Dust2
Inferno is left over
FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): Twistzz +13 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | broky +35 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 74.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): rain +5 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | broky +16 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Twistzz +6 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
FaZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 70.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
FaZe - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): broky +19 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Twistzz +9 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
mousesports - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 79.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): ropz +37 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | frozen +29 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | acoR +5 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
mousesports - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 75.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): ropz +19 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Bymas +5 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
mousesports - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 74.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 38.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
mousesports - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): ropz +26 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | frozen -1 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Bymas +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | dexter +10 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Mousesports wins 2-1. FaZe shot up to #4 in the world when they finished tied with Astralis for third place at IEM Cologne, but are they really a top five team? This team seems overrated, especially now that this event is back online. Their roster has only been together since June when FaZe benched coldzera and brought olofmeister back once again, and they had very little success prior to IEM Cologne. Mousesports signed acoR in January and then signed dexter in February, so their roster has been together for some time now though they have had their ups and downs along the way.
I think that FaZe will look to establish themselves as one of the best teams in the world on Ancient since they just beat Heroic & Gambit on that map, and I could see them picking it here if mousesports do not ban it, though Mirage has been a strong map for them too. FaZe will likely ban Vertigo, which means that mouz might pick Nuke, which has been their most played map in the past three months. Inferno would then probably be the decider in this scenario. I could see this being a really tight series, but I give the edge to mousesports on most maps, besides maybe Ancient or Mirage. A majority of mousesports’ results on Ancient came from a charity tournament, which is something to note. If this does end up as a close series, then there could be viable DFS plays on both sides, but mouz is the main focus for me here. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but right now we would be ‘buying low’ on mousesports and ‘selling high’ on FaZe based on recent results, which makes me like mousesports even more in a match-up that I think is very winnable for them.
Favorite Draftkings Play: acoR ($5,400)
AcoR has been the lowest rated player on mousesports in the past three months, but I expect that to change sooner rather than later. Last time these teams faced, acoR had the highest K/D ratio on his team with 56 kills, 44 deaths along with a 1.16 Rating across three maps, and he outfragged the opposing AWPer, broky. AcoR sometimes gets criticized for disappearing in difficult match-ups, but I think that he will do well against a team like FaZe, and his price tag is dirt cheap at $5,400. I really like ropz here too, but there are also really good spend-up options on NAVI, so I slightly prefer the value play with acoR more in the context of the slate, though ropz should be an excellent play if you can afford him. Frozen is more inconsistent than ropz, but he could be another strong option too. Bymas and dexter are typically only a priority for me in series that mousesports should dominate, and I do not think that will be the case here. Twistzz & broky are the go-to guys on FaZe, but I would much rather spend the money on ropz or one of the NAVI studs.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
ropz ($9,600) | frozen ($8,400) | Bymas ($7,200) | broky ($8,600) | Twistzz ($9,400)