OG (World rank: #10) vs. Sinners (World rank: #20) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: OG (-325) | Sinners (+255)
Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (-105) | Sinners +1.5 (-120)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- OG - Rating at event: mantuu 1.24 | flameZ 1.14 | valde 1.09 | Aleksib 1.04 | niko 1.02
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.21 | valde 1.10 | flameZ 1.08 | Aleksib 1.01 | niko 0.97
- Sinners - Rating at event: SHOCK 1.05 | oskar 0.98 | ZEDKO 0.95 | NEOFRAG 0.92 | beastik 0.86
- Sinners - Rating past three months: oskar 1.14 | NEOFRAG 1.10| SHOCK 1.08 | beastik 0.99 | ZEDKO 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative:
OG wins 2-0. I could see this series being a bit competitive, but OG is the much better team, and they also permaban Vertigo which takes away Sinners favorite map right off the bat. Sinners victory against G2 to open the group stage is no longer as impressive now that G2 sits at the bottom of Group B with an 0-3 W/L record. I do think that Sinners have shown that they can hang at the tier one level, and they are now officially a top 20 team in the world rankings, but OG at an online event while bootcamping seems to be a near unstoppable force. I just can’t figure out a map that Sinners have a real chance of beating OG on, besides maybe putting them to the test on Ancient, which is a map that they have never played a pro match on yet since it got added to the competitive map pool in May 2021. OG should roll here especially with Vertigo out of the way, though Sinners are at least competent enough to win some rounds.
Favorite Draftkings Play: flameZ ($7,800)
Draftkings priced flameZ up on Wednesday with this being an excellent match-up for OG, but he is still too cheap here. He is finding good form again now that he is playing online instead of LAN, and he seems to rack up kills in soft match-ups. The first time that we saw this OG lineup have some real success was when they were bootcamped for IEM Summer 2021, and their easiest match-up at that event was against Evil Geniuses, where flameZ had 74 Kills with only 42 deaths, as well as a 1.53 Rating across three maps. FlameZ seems to have just as much upside as valde on most maps, so I certainly prefer him at the cheaper price, though valde still looks like a fine play. Mantuu also looks really strong if you can afford him, while Aleksib and niko should be fine value options, with Aleksib looking like the better play. I prefer focusing on OG for DFS, but oskar would be my favorite on Sinners as a pretty consistent option in a tough match-up.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
mantuu ($9,400) | valde ($9,000) | Aleksib ($6,800) | niko ($5,800)
Virtus.pro (World rank: #10) vs. Complexity (World rank: #20) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: VP (-145) | CoL (+115)
Map Handicap: VP -1.5 (+190) | CoL +1.5 (-120)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- VP - Rating at event: YEKINDAR 1.10 | Jame 1.03 | buster 0.97 | Qikert 0.90 | SANJI 0.81
- VP - Rating past three months: Jame 1.12 | YEKINDAR 1.10 | Qikert 1.02 | buster 1.10 | SANJI 0.89
- CoL - Rating at event: blameF 1.23 | poizon 1.15 | es3tag 1.12 | jks 1.08 | NaToSaphiX 0.89
- CoL - Rating past three months: blameF 1.19 | es3tag 1.12 | poizon 1.06 | jks 1.06 | NaToSaphiX 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did face in July on LAN at IEM Cologne 2021, but RUSH was still on the roster instead of Es3tag, and NaToSaphiX was not standing in for k0nfig. Virtus.pro won that series 2-1 (6-16 Mirage / 19-15 Dust2 / 16-13 Overpass), though blameF led the way with 69 Kills and a 1.31 Rating across three maps.
Prediction/Narrative:
VP wins 2-1. Complexity has shown positive signs with es3tag in their lineup, but their potential is limited with NaToSaphiX standing in for k0nfig, and I think VP should be a bigger favorite here than the odds show. Complexity will likely ban Inferno, meaning VP would have to go for something else like Dust2. Either way, I think that VP should have the advantage as we get into the later rounds of maps, as Complexity will make mistakes in some spots with two new players in the lineup, and VP is one of the best teams at punishing those mistakes. This is a crucial match-up for determining playoffs, and this could be a tight series, but I give an edge to VP on most maps, and they should come out on top in a best-of-three.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Jame ($8,400)
This looks like a great spot for Jame with VP fighting for playoffs against a team that is not at full strength, and he has consistent fantasy production even in losses anyway. Dust2 is a much better map for Jame than Inferno, so the map pool should set-up nicely here. There are a lot of inexpensive options in this match-up, and Jame certainly appears to be too cheap at $8,400 in a spot with tremendous upside. I prefer stacking VP, but it is also difficult to ignore blameF going from ‘baitF’ to ‘entryF’, meaning he has switched his style for lurking to entrying with much success.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
YEKINDAR ($7,400) | buster ($6,400) | qikert ($7,000) | blameF ($8,000)
G2 (World rank: #3) vs. forZe (World rank: #16) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-140) | forZe (+110)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+195) | forZe +1.5 (-245)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.30 | huNter- 1.02 | nexa 0.88 | AmaNEk 0.87 | JaCkz 0.86
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.19 | huNter- 1.09 | nexa 0.99 | AmaNEk 0.99 | JaCkz 0.92
- forZe - Rating at event: zorte 1.24 | FL1T 1.19 | KENSI 1.12 | almazer 0.95 | Jerry 0.93
- forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.18 | zorte 1.14 | KENSI 1.07 | almazer 1.07 | Jerry 1.07
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative:
ForZe wins 2-1. G2 find themselves at the bottom of Group B after an 0-3 start, while forZe need to win as they are in the hunt for playoffs. ForZe continue to be unstoppable on Mirage, and I think they will beat G2 on that map. The rest of the map pool does not seem one-sided in either direction, but the fact that forZe need to win for playoffs makes me want to give them a slight edge on any other maps. You could also argue that G2 are now playing with no pressure, but there is certainly pressure for some players who may be worried about roster changes that could be considered after poor results. This series is tough to call but I lean forZe based on their dominance on Mirage.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Jerry ($6,600)
I liked Jerry a lot on Tuesday, though he did not impress nearly as much as some of his other teammates. Still, I think that this is a great spot for him here, and I am going right back to him based on the upside he has as an aggressive player, as well as the low ownership he has been picking up on Draftkings. He continues to be a risky play, but he has had some strong maps and if he can put together a complete series then he will end up as a monster DFS play.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
zorte ($7,200) | FL1T ($8,200) | NiKo ($8,600) | huNter- ($7,600) | almazer ($5,000)