Virtus.pro (World rank: #5) vs. Sinners (World rank: #23) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (-165) | Sinners (+125)
Map Handicap: Virtus.pro -1.5 (+175) | Sinners +1.5 (-230)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- Virtus.pro - Rating at event: YEKINDAR 0.97 | Jame 0.96 | buster 0.92 | Qikert 0.78 | SANJI 0.70
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: Jame 1.13 | YEKINDAR 1.02 | Qikert 1.02 | buster 1.01 | SANJI 0.89
- Sinners - Rating at event: SHOCK 1.08 | ZEDKO 1.01 | oskar 0.99 | NEOFRAG 0.96 | beastik 0.91
- Sinners - Rating past three months: oskar 1.15 | NEOFRAG 1.12 | SHOCK 1.08 | beastik 0.99 | ZEDKO 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Sinners removes Dust2
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
Sinners picks Vertigo
Virtus.pro picks Inferno
Sinners removes Overpass
Virtus.pro removes Mirage
Ancient is left over
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 61.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): Jame +14 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 8-4 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Jame +52 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Qikert +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Ancient past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 83.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (2 maps): Qikert +10 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | buster +2 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Jame +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | SANJI +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (17 maps): 12-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (17 maps): oskar +100 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | SHOCK +45 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | NEOFRAG +28 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | ZEDKO +8 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 71.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 22.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): SHOCK +19 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | NEOFRAG +10 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | oskar +6 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): NEOFRAG +15 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | SHOCK +14 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | oskar +17 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | ZEDKO +3 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | beastik 0 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
VP wins 2-1. Virtus.pro should ban Nuke, which means that Sinners can pick their favorite map: Vertigo. Sinners beat G2 on Vertigo and looked solid in a loss against Complexity at this event, and they are definitely capable of beating VP on that map. As for the rest of the map pool, Sinners will likely ban Dust2, which means VP will need to pick something else, and Inferno makes the most sense because it has been a strong map for them in the past. Ancient could end up as the decider since both teams have had good results on it and have not prioritized that map with their bans. Virtus.pro is the more talented team, though Sinners have been in better form recently, so this series could be close, but I think that this is a great match-up for VP in terms of their playstyle, and they should win on any map besides Vertigo.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Jame ($9,000)
If there is one safe DFS play from this match-up, then it would be Jame. His $9,000 salary makes him the most expensive player on either side by a decent margin, but there are value options on this slate, and $9K flat seems like a very reasonable price tag for him here, so I think that Jame should be a priority on this slate in a good match-up. I have VP winning this series since they should have an edge on any map besides Vertigo, and Jame should be a solid play regardless of the result anyway, since he often has 20+ kills on maps that his team loses. He has been quiet so far at ESL Pro League S14, but I expect him to have a monster performance sooner rather than later. I like Jame a lot more than anybody else here, so having him as a one-off rather than as a stack seems like a fine idea to me.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Qikert ($6,400) | YEKINDAR ($8,000) | oskar ($7,800) | NEOFRAG ($7,000) | buster ($7,200) | SANJI ($5,600) | SHOCK ($6,200)
OG (World rank: #10) vs. forZe (World rank: #16) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: OG (-190) | forZe (+140)
Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (+170) | forZe +1.5 (-225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- OG - Rating at event: mantuu 1.44 | niko 1.28 | flameZ 1.14 | Aleksib 1.12 | valde 1.11
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.24 | valde 1.11 | flameZ 1.07 | Aleksib 1.02 | niko 0.99
- forZe - Rating at event: zorte 1.28 | FL1T 1.18 | KENSI 1.02 | almazer 0.95 | Jerry 0.92
- forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.19 | zorte 1.14 | almazer 1.08 | Jerry 1.07 | KENSI 1.06
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced each other over a year ago at DreamHack Open Summer 2020 EU, but both teams have made a couple of roster changes since then, so I do not put much weight into the 2-0 sweep for OG (16-14 Mirage / 16-10 Nuke).
Map Projections:
forZe removes Nuke
OG removes Vertigo
forZe picks Mirage
OG picks Inferno
forZe removes Dust2
OG removes Overpass
Ancient is left over
OG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (10 maps): mantuu +73 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | valde +50 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 85.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): flameZ +32 K/D Diff, 1.45 Rating | mantuu +45 K/D Diff, 1.40 Rating | Aleksib +20 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | valde +16 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
OG - Key stats on Ancient past three months (0 maps): N/A (Map not yet played)
OG - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (0 maps): N/A (Map not yet played)
forZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (27 maps): 24-3 W/L record, 57.4% pistol round win percent, 75.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (27 maps): FL1T +106 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | zorte +147 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | almazer +74 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Jerry +51 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | KENSI +59 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 8-4 W/L record, 45.8% pistol round win percent, 74.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): FL1T +62 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | Jerry +18 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | almazer +13 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | zorte +27 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | KENSI +13 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Ancient past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 45.5% pistol round win percent, 75.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (11 maps): zorte +47 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | FL1T +21 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
ForZe wins 2-1. Let me preface this by saying that OG has been the highest rated team at ESL Pro League S14 through four maps with a 1.22 Rating, and mantuu has been the highest rated player with a 1.44 Rating, which is even better than ZywOo from Group A so far. I have been saying for a long time that OG is a scary team in an online match when they are playing together at bootcamp, and that will remain the case as they are bootcamping for this entire event, so I understand the logic behind backing them on Tuesday. With that being said, I still think that forZe is better than the odds show, and I see this match-up as more of a coinflip at the moment. ForZe have continued to dominate Mirage and are currently on a 13 map win streak, plus they have also won 22 of the last 23 times on that map. Both teams typically ban Vertigo, but I think that forZe will be the ones to ban something else like Nuke, which would strengthen the map pool in their favor. These teams are both solid on Mirage, but forZe will probably pick that map regardless of the match-up, like we saw against Complexity. This would leave Inferno open as a good option for OG, though Dust2 could be in consideration as well. OG have not played Ancient yet, but they have shown a willingness to play it based on their bans, and it would have been the decider map against VP if that series went three maps, so I think that it could very well be the decider map in this series, unless maybe forZe decided to float Mirage through as the decider. With those maps in mind, I consider this to be a tough spot for OG, and forZe should be considered live underdogs. I think that OG will not be able to get an easy win on any map, even Inferno, so this could end up as a tight series, but ultimately, I lean the way of forZe based on their ability on Mirage as well as OG’s lack of history on Ancient.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Jerry ($5,800)
Jerry is just way too cheap at $5,800. The aggressive IGL is by no means the safest play on the slate, but the potential upside at this salary could cause him to end up as the best point-per-dollar play overall. This is the same salary that Draftkings had Jerry at when he faced Gambit back in June, when Gambit was ranked #1 overall in the world, and OG should be a slightly easier match-up at least. Mirage & Inferno are two of Jerry’s best maps, and we could see those as the first two maps played. Jerry has been the lowest rated player on forZe so far at season 14 of ESL Pro League, but I expect him to bounce back sooner rather than later. He had two really solid maps against VP on Sunday, including 26 kills with a 1.86 Rating on Mirage, and it is only a matter of time before he puts it all together with a consistent performance across each map in a series. I also really like zorte at $7,000, which seems too cheap for him as well, and FL1T could be a strong play too despite his more expensive salary. Almazer and KENSI are not priority targets for me on this slate, though KENSI is really cheap at only $4,800 which could open up a lot of other options. Mantuu, flameZ and valde are the only three that I would focus on for OG if you think that this could be a competitive series, while niko and Aleksib are typically only targets when OG has a softer match-up. I think forZe can easily win this series, so I would rather get to their players at cheaper salaries on Draftkings.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
zorte ($7,000) | FL1T ($8,400) | flameZ ($6,800) | mantuu ($8,800) | KENSI ($4,800) | valde ($8,200)
G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Complexity (World rank: #18) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-215) | Complexity (+170)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+140) | Complexity +1.5 (-170)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.30 | huNter- 1.06 | nexa 0.81 | AmaNEk 0.80 | JaCkz 0.76
- G2- Rating past three months: NiKo 1.18 | huNter- 1.10 | nexa 0.99 | AmaNEk 0.99 | JaCkz 0.91
- Complexity - Rating at event: blameF 1.26 | es3tag 1.22 | jks 1.09 | poizon 1.06 | NaToSaphiX 0.92
- Complexity - Rating past three months: es3tag 1.22 | blameF 1.20 | jks 1.06 | poizon 1.04 | NaToSaphiX 0.91
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because es3tag just recently joined Complexity in place of RUSH, and NaToSaphiX is standing in for k0nfig, who just had wrist surgery. However, the teams did face last month on LAN at IEM Cologne with eight of the ten players on the server, and G2 won 2-0 (16-14 Vertigo / 16-6 Dust2). HuNter- and NiKo combined for 101 kills across two maps with 52 and 49 respectively, and nobody on Complexity finished with a positive K/D ratio.
Map Projections:
Complexity removes Inferno
G2 removes Overpass
Complexity picks Nuke
G2 picks Dust2
Complexity removes Vertigo
G2 removes Ancient
Mirage is left over
G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 78.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): AmaNEk +42 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | NiKo +16 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | nexa +6 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | huNter- +2 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 68.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (9 maps): huNter- +31 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | NiKo +7 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 5-4 W/L record, 38.9% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): NiKo +57 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | huNter- +20 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | nexa +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): blameF +50 K/D Diff, 1.40 Rating | es3tag (2 maps) +5 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | jks +19 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | poizon +22 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 68.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): poizon +22 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | blameF +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | jks +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 9-5 W/L record, 46.4% pistol round win percent, 73.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): blameF +51 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | jks +16 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
G2 wins 2-0. This is the perfect bounce back spot for G2. Complexity did look sharp in their sweep against Sinners, while G2 actually lost their opening match to the Czech organization. Still, Complexity will surely have weaknesses given their recent roster changes, and G2 should be able to exploit several of those weaknesses. Es3tag certainly seems to be an upgrade from RUSH for Complexity, but NaToSaphiX is still an awkward fit given his preference of being the primary AWPer, plus G2 should be hungry for a win after an 0-2 start to the group. We know that Inferno and Overpass will very likely get banned right off the bat. Mirage used to be the frequent map pick for Complexity, but they have preferred Nuke with this lineup, so I think that Nuke will be their choice on Tuesday. G2 will have to decide on something other than Inferno, and Dust2 makes the most sense, especially since they bullied Complexity 16-6 on that map last time. Mirage would be the logical decider map in this scenario because G2 typically ban Ancient with their second ban, while Complexity would probably rather play Mirage than Vertigo.
Favorite Draftkings Play: NiKo ($9,200)
NiKo is the most expensive player on the slate, but $9,200 does not seem too expensive for him in a great match-up, especially considering there are some strong value plays to help save some salary elsewhere as well. I think that G2 is the best stack on the slate, and I could see a few players having monster performances, but NiKo is the best bet of them all as the second highest rated player in Group B so far with a 1.30 Rating, only behind mantuu. The map pool could set-up wonderfully for him as well because he will start on CT Nuke against Complexity if they pick it, which is a map where he usually gets extremely aggressive outside to hunt down some kills and boost his confidence. Dust2 and Mirage are two excellent maps for NiKo where he is able to let his incredible aim shine, so it looks to be another great spot for him. HuNter- looks like a really strong play as well at a similar salary, while AmaNEk might finally be in for a big day at this event with Nuke as a potential map. I also think that nexa and JaCkz are worth taking some shots on at cheap salaries against a Complexity roster that is not at full strength. I really prefer G2 here, but blameF at $6,800 is a tempting price tag for a player who was ranked the number six player in the world by HLTV in 2020. Poizon is always inconsistent with the AWP, but he would be my next favorite play on Complexity since the variance could maybe work in your favor for a GPP takedown, and his salary is cheap at $5,200. I think that G2 makes a lot of sense as a stack on Tuesday.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
huNter- ($8,600) | AmaNEk ($7,400) | JaCkz ($5,800) | nexa ($6,600) | blameF ($6,800)
**Favorite Stacks: G2, forZe, Jame/VP
**Favorite Captain Plays: NiKo, Jame, zorte, huNter-, FL1T, AmaNEk
**Favorite Value Plays: Jerry, JaCkz, nexa, Qikert