G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Sinners (World rank: #23) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-400) | Sinners (+295)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (-115) | Sinners +1.5 (-105)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+145) | Under 2.5 (-175)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.18 | huNter- 1.12 | AmaNEk 1.03 | nexa 1.01 | JaCkz 0.93
- Sinners - Rating past three months: oskar 1.17 | NEOFRAG 1.13 | SHOCK 1.08 | beastik 0.99 | ZEDKO 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other outside of a best-of-one showmatch that took place in March, which is not a result that I weigh heavily given the casual nature of exhibition matches. G2 did win 16-13 on Inferno and nexa top fragged with 23 Kills and a 1.60 Rating.
Map Projections:
G2 removes Overpass
Sinners removes Dust2
G2 picks Mirage
Sinners picks Vertigo
G2 removes Ancient
Sinners removes Inferno
Nuke is left over
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 61.1% pistol round win percent, 80.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): NiKo +65 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | huNter- +43 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | AmaNEk +23 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | nexa +15 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 73.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (6 maps): huNter- +23 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | NiKo +11 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (8 maps): 3-5 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 75.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (8 maps): AmaNEk +46 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | NiKo +26 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | huNter- +4 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 38.9% pistol round win percent, 70.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): oskar +57 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | NEOFRAG +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | SHOCK +8 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (15 maps): 11-4 W/L record, 53.3% pistol round win percent, 73.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (15 maps): oskar +100 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | SHOCK +47 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | NEOFRAG +22 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Sinners - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 71.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Sinners - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): oskar +19 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | NEOFRAG +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
2-0 win for G2. I'm going with a sweep for the better team, but Sinners are also solid. G2 are a heavy favorite, but it would not be completely out of the realm of possibilities to see Sinners take a map, Overpass and Dust2 have been the typical bans for the teams recently and that should continue on Saturday. Mirage makes the most sense as a map pick for G2, though Inferno has probably been their best overall map. Either way, they should win their own map pick with ease. Sinners favorite map is Vertigo, and they are one of the best teams in the world on Vertigo even though they play against mostly tier two competition. I think that Sinners would definitely give G2 a run for their money on Vertigo if it is played, but the series should be one-sided on any other maps. Oskar and NEOFRAG are the only options on Sinners that I would maybe consider here, with oskar (a veteran player that was once amongst the top in the world as a member of mousesports) being the safer choice in most spots. G2 should be the clear priority here, and they should make for an excellent DFS stack. G2 is a team that is known to sometimes let blow big leads in match-ups like these, but they should easily win out in a best-of-three.
Favorite Draftkings Play: huNter- ($9,400)
I am going with huNter- as the top option instead of NiKo given the fact that we should see Vertigo played, and huNter- is a killing machine on that map. Both of the Kovac cousins will likely make for strong plays in an easy match-up though. This is a good spot for AmaNEk, nexa, and JaCkz too, but none of them stand out as much, besides maybe nexa based on pricing and fragging potential.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
NiKo ($9,800) | nexa ($7,000) | AmaNEk ($8,000) | JaCkz ($6,200)
Virtus.pro (World rank: #5) vs. OG (World rank: #14) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Virtus.pro (-115) | OG (-105)
Map Handicap: Virtus.pro -1.5 (+245) | OG +1.5 (-310)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: Jame 1.14 | buster 1.03 | Qikert 1.03 | YEKINDAR 1.03 | SANJI 0.90
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.21 | valde 1.11 | flameZ 1.06 | Aleksib 1.00 | niko 0.95
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced each other on June 4th at IEM Summer 2021, with OG sweeping 2-0 (16-10 Mirage / 16-11 Overpass) and all five OG members posting a positive K/D ratio. Niko had the most kills with 43 across two maps, but mantuu finished with the highest Rating at 1.27. I had posted my bets on WagerAlarm for that series with OG Moneyline (-115) and OG -1.5 (+240), and part of my logic was that OG were undefeated at the time after joining together as a team in bootcamp with wins against Fiend, BIG and NiP. Thus, it is important to note that OG are back at bootcamp for this event, which really seems to benefit them as a team, especially their young addition, flameZ.
Map Projections:
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
OG removes Vertigo
Virtus.pro picks Ancient
OG picks Mirage
Virtus.pro removes Overpass
OG removes Dust2
Inferno is left over
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Ancient past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 83.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (2 maps): Qikert +10 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | buster +2 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Jame +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | SANJI +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 2-6 W/L record, 43.8% pistol round win percent, 60.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): Jame +19 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | YEKINDAR -3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | buster 0 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 8-4 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Jame +52 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Qikert +7 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
OG - Key stats on Ancient past three months (No maps played): N/A
OG - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (No maps played): N/A
OG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 74.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): mantuu +48 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | valde +40 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 81.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 39.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): flameZ +20 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | mantuu +31 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | Aleksib +14 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | valde +18 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
OG wins 2-1. This seems to be the optimal scenario for OG since this is an online tournament where they are playing together as a team at bootcamp. OG had a disappointing performance at the IEM Cologne Play-Ins, meaning they didn’t qualify for the main event, but they were never expected to thrive on LAN given the fact that they just added a young player, flameZ, who was only 17 at the time when the team signed him back in April. Virtus.pro had a decent showing at IEM Cologne, but they no longer appear to be an unstoppable force as teams have figured out their seemingly drawn-out playstyle. Inferno has been the go-to map for VP recently, but this has also been a really strong map for OG in the past, so I could see VP picking Ancient in this spot. OG have not played an official match on Ancient yet, so VP could put them to the test, which also makes sense considering VP have looked great on Ancient and it also feels perfect for their playstyle because it is such a big map. OG won this match-up last time, and I think they can beat VP on most maps, including Mirage, which should be their map pick, as well as Inferno, which could easily be the decider map. I have OG winning 2-1 only because I think Ancient would be difficult for them if we do see it played, but a sweep would not surprise me either regardless.
Favorite Draftkings Play: flameZ ($6,600)
FlameZ struggled on LAN at the IEM Cologne Play-In tournament, but that is understandable for such a young, inexperienced player. Now that we are back to online, and OG is back in bootcamp rather than playing from home, flameZ return to being the main source of firepower for this team. $6,600 is way too cheap for a player of his caliber, especially in a spot that looks pretty good for OG. FlameZ could easily end up as the highest DFS scorer from this match-up, so I love him at this price. The pricing for the rest of the team is pretty fair overall, with niko looking like an interesting risk to take at only $4,800. Jame could finish with a positive K/D ratio even if his team gets swept, so he is always an option on any slate, but I do not love getting to him here. The rest of VP is mostly a fade for me, but qikert would be my next favorite on that side.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
mantuu ($8,800) | valde ($7,800) | niko ($4,800) | Jame ($9,000) | Aleksib ($5,800)
Complexity (World rank: #16) vs. forZe (World rank: #18) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-125) | forZe (+105)
Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+225) | forZe +1.5 (-285)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group B
- Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.18 | jks 1.04 | poizon 1.03 | NaToSaphiX 0.81 | es3tag N/A
- forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.19 | zorte 1.13 | almazer 1.09 | Jerry 1.09 | KENSI 1.07
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other given the recent changes to Complexity’s lineup. The teams did face back in April 2021 at FunSpark ULTI, and forZe won 2-1 (16-10 Inferno / 9-16 Mirage / 16-14 Dust2). K0nfig had the most kills on the server and was the highest rated player at that entire event, so Complexity will miss having him on the server.
Map Projections:
Complexity removes Inferno
forZe removes Vertigo
Complexity picks Nuke
forZe picks Overpass
Complexity removes Ancient
forZe removes Mirage
Dust2 is left over
Complexity - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 35.7% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 21.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): blameF +30 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | jks -2 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | poizon +5 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): blameF +23 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | poizon +27 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | jks -1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Complexity - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 68.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Complexity - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): poizon +22 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | blameF +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | jks +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 3-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): zorte +24 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | FL1T -6 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | almazer +12 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | KENSI +18 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Overpass past three months (12 maps): 9-3 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 81.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (12 maps): FL1T +68 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | Jerry +38 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | zorte +40 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | KENSI +8 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | almazer +2 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): 6-5 W/L record, 45.5% pistol round win percent, 72.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (11 maps): FL1T +26 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | KENSI +35 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | zorte +27 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
ForZe wins 2-0. Complexity is missing their star player, k0nfig, who had to get wrist surgery, which means that NaToSaphiX is substituting in. NaToSaphiX is a talented player, but it seems like an awkward fit considering he prefers to use the AWP, and poizon is already the main AWPer for this team. NaToSaphiX is capable of rifling, but this is clearly not a long-term solution for him or for the team. Beyond that, Complexity are playing with a new permanent member, es3tag, who looks like he could be an upgrade from RUSH as a support player, but he will need time to build chemistry with the team as well. Thus, Complexity are in a weird spot right now, and forZe are capable of beating them even at full strength, which we saw at FunSpark ULTI, where k0nfig top fragged and they still lost. Mirage has been the favorite map for Complexity in the past, but forZe are excellent on that map, so I could see Complexity switching things up with Nuke, which is one of es3tag’s best maps. ForZe should be able to work the map pool in their favor especially considering they are not scared of playing Ancient. I think that forZe will go for Overpass, though Ancient would not be a bad pick either. Either way, I think that forZe should be favored here, and that they could easily run away with this series as Complexity figures out their issues as they go.
Favorite Draftkings Play: zorte ($7,600)
Zorte has looked solid with the AWP, and the map pool could shake out nicely for him, so I think that he is definitely worth loading up on at $7,600. He is not overly aggressive, so FL1T or Jerry might have a higher ceiling in some spots, but he should be a pretty safe play if forZe win this series, and he makes for a great piece as part of a stack. FL1T also looks like a strong play, while Jerry is a riskier option. Almazer and KENSI are both inconsistent and generally do not find themselves at the top of their teams in terms of kills, but both are cheap enough to consider taking here, especially KENSI at only $4,400. He does an excellent job of holding ramp on Nuke, so he could be a great play if Complexity decide for that map over Mirage. BlameF is the only option on Complexity that I would consider, but this could be a tough spot for him since he will be IGLing with two new players in the lineup. Poizon would be my next favorite on Complexity, but he is one of the most inconsistent AWPers in tier one, while es3tag could maybe be a good play at $6,000, but he should be in a support role so his upside might be capped a bit.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
FL1T ($8,600) | Jerry ($6,600) | KENSI ($4,400) | BlameF ($9,200) | almazer ($5,800)