Vitality (World rank: #9) vs. Bad News Bears (World rank: #55) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-1500) | Bad News Bears (+860)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-280) | Bad News Bears +1.5 (+220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+250) | Under 2.5 (-325)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.38 | misutaaa 1.23 | Kyojin 1.14 | apEX 1.03 | shox 0.80
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | misutaaa 1.14 | shox 1.02 | apEX 0.99 | Kyojin 0.99
- Bad News Bears - Rating at event: jonji 0.72 | Swisher 0.64 | junior 0.57 | Shakezullah 0.53 | Spongey 0.43
- Bad News Bears - Rating past three months: Swisher 1.11 | Spongey 1.02 | Jonji 0.99 | junior 0.98 | Shakezullah 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Vitality removes Ancient
Bad News Bears removes Vertigo
Vitality picks Dust2
Bad News Bears picks Mirage
Vitality removes Inferno
Bad News Bears removes Nuke
Overpass is left over
Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 27.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): ZywOo +29 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | misutaaa +22 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | shox +7 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +23 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | misutaaa +2 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +34 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | misutaaa +11 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Kyojin +4 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 77.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): Swisher +29 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Spongey +14 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Mirage past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (9 maps): Swisher +2 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | junior (6 maps) +15 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Spongey +6 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Bad News Bears- Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 81.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): Swisher +29 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | jonji -7 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Shakezullah +12 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Spongey +13 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | junior (5 maps) +16 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
2-0 Vitality. This is another brutal match-up for Bad News Bears, though I could definitely see them putting more rounds on the board than they did against Heroic on Monday. Vitality could stick with Overpass as their map pick, but I could also see them using this as an opportunity to re-establish Dust2 as a strong map for themselves after some mixed results with their current roster. Overpass could also likely be floated through as the decider map, since Bad News Bears have shown a willingness to play it. Bad News Bears picked Mirage against Heroic and only managed to win a single round, but I could still see them going back to it again here, especially since we know that Mirage has never been the favorite map for French Counter-Strike. Inferno could be an option too, but either way Bad News Bears are just playing with the hopes of maybe stealing a map from Vitality and doing so seems like quite a stretch. If they win some early rounds to start a half and gain control of the economy, then I could see one of these maps being somewhat close, like 16-10 or something at best, but Vitality should have no issues winning this series.
Favorite Draftkings Play: ZywOo ($10,000)
Draftkings rightfully made ZywOo the most expensive player on Tuesday’s slate, but I still think he is worth the salary at $10,000, especially in a spot as safe as this with Vitality as a massive favorite. He should make for a great captain play once again, though he is expensive, and his team won’t really need him to step up and be the hero against BNB, so his upside could be somewhat limited. Still, ZywOo’s stats show that he is easily the most talented player on this slate, and he has a soft match-up, so he needs to be the main priority here. This looks like a solid match-up for everyone on Vitality, but they have all been priced up accordingly so no one really stands out, besides apEX, who could be a great value play.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
apEX ($7,400) | Misutaaa ($9,200) | Kyojin ($6,200) | shox ($8,600)
Astralis (World rank: #4) vs. ENCE (World rank: #24) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-200) | ENCE (+160)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (-280) | ENCE +1.5 (+220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+250) | Under 2.5 (-325)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Astralis - Rating at event: Magisk 1.20 | dupreeh 1.15 | Lucky 1.03 | Bubzkji 0.99 | gla1ve 0.98
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.08 | dupreeh 1.06 | Lucky 0.99 | Bubzkji 0.99 | gla1ve 0.98
- ENCE - Rating at event: dycha 1.13 | Snappi 1.02 | hades 0.99 | doto 0.91 | Spinx 0.90
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.19 | dycha 1.13 | hades 1.13 | doto 1.09 | Snappi 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Mirage
ENCE removes Inferno
Astralis picks Dust2
ENCE picks Vertigo
Astralis removes Overpass
ENCE removes Ancient
Nuke is left over
Astralis - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 77.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): gla1ve +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Magisk +8 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 71.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): dupreeh +15 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Magisk +15 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | Bubzkji +9 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 72.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): Magisk +16 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | dupreeh +19 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 73.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (6 maps): Spinx +21 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | doto +6 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 72.2% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 44.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): doto +30 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | hades +50 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | dycha +25 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Spinx +17 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Snappi +4 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 8-3 W/L record, 68.2% pistol round win percent, 78.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): Spinx +54 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | hades +47 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | dycha +15 K/D Diff, 1.15 Ratin | doto +20 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
ENCE 2-1. I think this could be a really close series, but Astralis should still have some things to work on with their new roster, so I think ENCE is a live underdog. ENCE banned Inferno against Vitality, and they should do the same against Astralis especially after the one-sided showing from the Danes on that map on Monday. Astralis could pick Nuke, but ENCE also like that map, so it might be floated through as the decider map. I think Dust2 makes the most sense considering Astralis obviously prepped for it with Lucky because they knew Spirit would pick it in their opening match. The best option for ENCE would probably be Vertigo, and I think Astralis would be vulnerable to an upset on that map. I do not want to buy too much into the Astralis hype after one win with a new lineup. Nuke has historically been a dominant map for Astralis, but it is also a strong map for ENCE, and Lucky’s performance could end up deciding the map with his role being crucial. Either way, I see this being a tight series.
Favorite Draftkings Play: hades ($7,400)
Hades price has not changed from the day prior on Draftkings, despite a solid performance against Vitality. This also looks to be a better spot for him in my opinion since ENCE should be able to hold their own against Astralis, and Astralis are tasked with working a young AWPer into their lineup, which could open up space for hades with his AWP. I predicted that degster would thrive in a similar situation on Monday, and he did just that with the highest K/D ratio on the server even though his team dropped two out of three maps. This is not the safest play, but the potential upside absolutely seems worth the risk. If there is one player on the ENCE side that I want in this match-up, it would be hades. A stack of ENCE players could really pay off on Draftkings, but there is not anyone that I like as much besides maybe doto at only $5,800. I think having some exposure to both sides of this series makes some sense because this could be a competitive series. Even if ENCE do win, then that does not mean that all of their players are a lock for fantasy production, as we saw last season at ESL Pro League. Lucky has also been added for this slate, and his cheap $6,000 price tag does make him an interesting option for Astralis.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
doto ($5,800) | Lucky ($6,000) | dupreeh ($8,200) | magisk ($8,800) | Spinx ($8,000)
Heroic (World rank: #8) vs. Spirit (World rank: #12) - 2:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-155) | Spirit (+125)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+180) | Spirit +1.5 (-225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Heroic - Rating at event: TeSeS 1.91 | stavn 1.74 | cadiaN 1.41 | sjuush 1.36 | refrezh 1.18
- Heroic - Rating past three months: TeSeS 1.13 | cadiaN 1.12 | stavn 1.07 | sjuush 1.06 | refrezh 0.90
- Spirit - Rating at event: degster 1.18 | mir 1.12 | magixx 1.07 | chopper 0.76 | sdy 0.76
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.20 | degster 1.15 | magixx 1.05 | sdy 1.04 | chopper 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other on LAN last month at IEM Cologne, and Heroic won the series 2-1 (16-13 Overpass / 12-16 Nuke / 22-19 Ancient). Degster was the top performer with 88 kills and only 51 deaths along with a 1.34 Rating across three maps despite his team losing in the end.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
Spirit removes Vertigo
Heroic picks Nuke
Spirit picks Overpass
Heroic removes Inferno
Spirit removes Mirage
Ancient is left over
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): cadiaN +57 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | TeSeS +54 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | sjuush +30 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | stavn +8 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 70.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): TeSeS +14 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | stavn +4 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | cadiaN +16 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Ancient past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 67.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 41.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (4 maps): cadiaN +35 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | sjuush +6 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | TeSeS +7 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Spirit- Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 35.7% pistol round win percent, 68.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): degster +47 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | mir +12 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | sdy +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 75.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit- Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): degster +60 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | mir +29 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | sdy +8 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Ancient past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 66.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit- Notable performers on Ancient past three months (6 maps): mir +48 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | degster +37 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
2-0 Heroic. I think that Heroic is still on another level than Spirit, though we don’t want to overreact to Heroic winning and Spirit losing on day one of the event. This match-up was close last time with Spirit taking Nuke from Heroic, but Heroic should still be considered a decent favorite on Nuke if they pick it again. Heroic should ban Dust2, which takes away Spirit’s best map and takes them out of their comfort zone. They will likely go with Overpass again in this scenario, which Heroic did beat them on last time. Ancient could be the decider again, but I would not be surprised to see Heroic float Inferno through since Spirit looked so bad on that map against Astralis on Monday. Heroic is the better team, and they should be able to work the map pool in their favor, so they look like a strong play in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Play: cadiaN ($7,800)
Ride or die with cadiaN at $7,800 in a match-up that should be competitive and where his team is favored to win. This play just makes too much sense and is my favorite on the entire slate. CadiaN is priced down from $9,000 on Monday, and his fantasy production could be even higher despite a tougher opponent. The longer these maps go on, the more it seems that cadiaN decides to make aggressive plays and go for opening picks. His elite clutching ability is also more likely to be needed in this match-up, which could lead to a 1vX bonus on Draftkings. I think that cadiaN could end up with solid stats even if Spirit come out on top, and his overall upside is tremendous at this price tag. Degster is at a similar price on the other side of this match-up and could easily be another really strong play, but cadiaN is definitely my preference in this spot. There are reasons to like most of the members of Heroic in this spot, though sjuush does stand out slightly more than the others now that his price has come down to $6,400. Degster and mir seem to be the only two members of Spirit that we can trust for DFS, but I do not see this being a favorable spot for either one.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
sjuush ($6,400) | TeSeS ($9,600) | stavn ($7,200) | degster ($7,600) | mir ($8,400)