Heroic (World rank: #8) vs. Bad News Bears (World rank: #57) - 7:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-775) | Bad News Bears (+525)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (-205) | Bad News Bears +1.5 (+165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+210) | Under 2.5 (-265)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Heroic - Rating past three months: cadiaN 1.10 | TeSeS 1.10 | sjuush 1.05 | stavn 1.04 | refrezh 0.89
- Bad News Bears - Rating past three months: Swisher 1.14 | Spongey 1.05 | Jonji 1.01 | junior 1.01 | Shakezullah 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Heroic removes Dust2
Bad News Bears removes Vertigo
Heroic picks Nuke
Bad News Bears picks Inferno
Heroic removes Mirage
Bad News Bears removes Ancient
Overpass is left over
- Dust2 & Vertigo are the typical bans for these teams, and I do not expect that to change here. Heroic was the best team in the world on Nuke to start the year, though NAVI have now made a case for that title. Either way, the Danes know how to play Nuke and it should be their go-to map still, though they probably have some room to experiment here if they wanted to. I think that Bad News Bears have two preferred options: Inferno or Overpass. Inferno makes the most sense when you consider that Heroic started the year strong on Inferno but have now lost five of their past six matches on that map. Bad News Bears have won six in a row on Overpass, but those wins aren’t all that impressive given the competition and the stakes at the time. Bad News Bears could then hope to float Overpass through as the decider map, which also prevents Heroic from being guaranteed the more favorable CT side to start.
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (10 maps): 8-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (10 maps): cadiaN +52 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | TeSeS +38 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | sjuush +24 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | stavn +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (3 maps): 0-3 W/L record, 16.7% pistol round win percent, 65.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (3 maps): stavn -6 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Heroic- Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 70.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Heroic- Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): TeSeS +14 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | stavn +4 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | cadiaN +16 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | sjuush 0 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Nuke past three months (9 maps): 4-5 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 71.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (9 maps): junior (2 maps) +14 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Spongey +26 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Swisher +14 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Inferno past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 45.8% pistol round win percent, 67.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (12 maps): Jonji -1 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Swisher -3 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Shakezullah (9 maps) -7 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating | Spongey +7 K/D Diff, 0.97 Rating
Bad News Bears - Key stats on Overpass past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 81.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Bad News Bears - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (7 maps): junior (2 maps) +26 K/D Diff, 1.52 Rating | Swisher +29 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Jonji (6 maps) -7 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | Shakezullah (6 maps) +12 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Spongey +13 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Heroic is clearly a huge favorite here, and a 2-0 sweep for the Danish side is the most likely outcome for this match-up. Heroic should dominate on whichever map they choose, especially Nuke. Bad News Bears would start on the more favorable CT side if Nuke is played, but I would be shocked to see them even win the half. Inferno seems to be the map that could maybe get interesting. It was Bad News Bears’ favorite map earlier in the year, and Heroic have struggled on it recently, so the upset narrative is there I suppose. Also, some rounds on Inferno can come down to gamble stacking either site and hoping it works out, which tends to benefit the underdog in general. Still, Heroic’s losses came against some of the top competition in the world, and they have had strong wins this year on Inferno against quality teams such as Gambit, Astralis, Vitality, Spirit, NiP, OG and FunPlus Phoenix. Heroic have to be the focus here for DFS and I do not see any reason to even consider most of the options on the BNB side. Heroic seems like the safest stack on the slate, but this could be a quick series which may limit fantasy production for the players at the top, so a three stack might not be optimal. Overall, you really cannot go wrong with anyone on the Heroic side, and all five players have the potential to be the top fantasy scorer in this series.
Heroic - Team Analysis:
This Heroic roster started out on fire after signing sjuush and refrezh at the end of February, going on to win their first 12 series played together, including a best-of-five win against Gambit for the Grand Final of ESL Pro League S13 (You’ve probably seen this highlight a bunch, but you should maybe watch it one more time to get hyped for CS being back https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFESGKu-b7w). They were an underrated team at the time, and it made sense to hammer them in DFS. After their success, they perhaps became a tad overrated when they were ranked #2 in the world behind only Gambit, at least in terms of the odds and pricing we were being offered. In their most recent event, Heroic struggled at IEM Cologne, however the news came out afterwards that the reason HUNDEN was not coaching for them at the event was due to him breaching his contract, including allegedly sharing Heroic’s stratbook, which HUNDEN did specifically deny on Twitter. Yes, this is the same HUNDEN that retired from being a pro player to become Heroic’s coach in 2020, only to later get banned for several months by ESL for exploiting a coaching bug in the game. Despite proof of HUNDEN essentially cheating with this bug exploit, Heroic still brought him back as their coach after his suspension, which they obviously regret now, and he is no longer with the organization. With all of that being said, I think that Heroic could go back to being a team that is possibly undervalued by the odds after their recent decline, especially since the HUNDEN drama is mostly behind them now. Robl, the team’s mental and performance coach, took over as stand-in coach at IEM Cologne and that should be the case once again for this event as far as we know. This is likely not a permanent solution, but it at least gives them some stability bringing in someone that knows them well and that they respect.
Bad News Bears - Team Analysis:
The untrained eye might think that Bad News Bears have been in their best form as of late, but the North American Cash Cups that they’ve been competing in during player break hardly compare to going up against a team like Heroic. One of the stars of this roster, ptr, announced his retirement earlier this month to pursue a poker career, which allowed junior to step in as their main AWPer. Junior will be reunited with his former Triumph teammate, Shakezullah, who is the new IGL for Bad News Bears as of the end of May 2021. Spongey also played with them on Triumph, so there is some history and chemistry with this roster. Still, there have been a lot of moving parts recently for this team, so they will probably have some holes in their gameplan. Bad News Bears are still looking to be signed by an organization, so you could argue that there is more incentive for them to perform well than anybody at this event. For this match-up, the goal for Bad News Bears will really just be to try and steal a map from Heroic.
Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
stavn ($7,000) - Stavn looks like an excellent value play at $7,000 on Draftkings, so he is my favorite from this match-up as well as my favorite value play for the entire slate. He might not consistently top frag for Heroic, but he sometimes finds himself competing with cadiaN and TeSeS for the most kills on any given map. If stavn has a below average day, then he still usually ends up with a decent K/D ratio, which gives him a fairly safe floor as well. The potential map pool looks solid for him, and we will likely see him pull out the secondary AWP in some rounds. $7,000 is just too cheap for stavn in this match-up, so I really recommend him on this slate.
TeSeS ($9,800) - TeSeS should smash here and might be the safest play in this match-up, but he is also the most expensive player on the entire slate. I prefer getting to some other spend-up options in the other two series, but TeSeS should be a strong play if you have the extra salary to afford him. He wins most of his opening duels, and he typically is not afraid to take a lot of those duels in easier match-ups like this, so we could see plenty of rounds on T side where TeSeS just completely opens up the site and gets a majority of the kills, which could mean that he racks up a bunch of bonus DK points for getting the first kill of the round.
cadiaN ($9,000) - I see this as a better spot for TeSeS than cadiaN, but cadiaN is cheaper which is something to consider. CadiaN does like to get super aggressive at times to go for opening picks, but he tends to sit back and let his team farm kills in one-sided match-ups such as this. He should still have a good day either way, but he is simply not my favorite play in the $9K salary range for this slate.
refrezh ($6,200) - Refrezh was in a nice groove with this roster when he first joined, but his production has come down significantly in the past couple of months. He plays some positions that really help his team, but this does not necessarily translate into easy kills for him. He has great aim and decision-making, so his cheap $6,200 price tag is difficult to ignore on this slate, especially with his team heavily favored to win. It would also not surprise me to see Heroic set him up for some easy kills in a match-up like this where they can play with their food a bit. Refrezh has tons of potential, but he clearly comes with some risk based on his recent stats.
sjuush ($8,200) - We were originally led to believe that sjuush would have limited fantasy production in this roster in a support role, but he frequently ends up being the one tasked with trading kills on T side, which puts him in favorable gunfights. $8,200 feels slightly too expensive for sjuush on a three series slate, but he should be a fine play in an easy match-up.
junior ($5,600) - I would not recommend playing Bad News Bears on this slate, but junior would be the guy to possibly consider as a longshot in my opinion. His stats dropped as a member of FURIA, but that team does not play around their AWPer as many other teams do, plus there was probably somewhat of a language barrier playing with four Brazilians, so it just was not a comfortable spot for him to thrive. When HEN1 was the AWPer for FURIA, he would sit back, stay alive, and often find himself in clutch scenarios. That does not match junior’s preferred playstyle, and a team like Bad News Bears looks like a better spot for him based on how they played around ptr and let him do his thing. There isn’t too much upside here, but if junior is feeling it, then he could become relevant for this slate.
swisher ($6,800) - Swisher has been the highest rated player on Bad News Bears in recent months so he makes some sense as a punt play, but his $6,800 price tag makes it so that risk is not worth taking for me, especially since Heroic should dominate here.
jonji ($4,200) - Jonji is super cheap so I guess he would be my next favorite. He puts up solid performances on some maps, but his stats are not always the prettiest, so this might be one of the riskiest plays on the board.
Spongey ($6,400) - Spongey is listed as out on Draftkings, but he should be playing as far as we know. $6,400 is just too much for him here though, point blank period.
Shakezullah ($5,000) - Shakezullah has done well as an IGL in the North American scene, but he is not much of a fragging IGL, and he is the last person that I would consider targeting in this spot.
alter** - BENCHED
Vitality (World rank: #9) vs. ENCE (World rank: #23) - 10:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-175) | ENCE (+140)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+160) | ENCE +1.5 (-200)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.28 | misutaaa 1.14 | shox 1.02 | apEX 0.99 | Kyojin 0.99
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.20 | dycha 1.13 | hades 1.13 | doto 1.09 | Snappi 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did face back in March at ESL Pro League S13, but RpK was still on Vitality instead of Kyojin, and allu was AWPing for ENCE instead of hades, so there have been changes on both sides. ENCE did win that series 2-0 (16-10 Nuke / 16-9 Dust2) with allu as the top performer, but ZywOo still managed 40 kills and a 1.25 Rating despite his team getting swept.
Map Projections:
Vitality removes Ancient
ENCE removes Inferno
Vitality picks Overpass
ENCE picks Nuke
Vitality removes Mirage
ENCE removes Dust2
Vertigo is left over
- Some map pools are clearer than others, and this one in particular is somewhat tough to predict with this being the first day of the event. Ancient & Inferno have been the most banned maps for these teams in recent months, so we have no choice other than to assume that the initial bans probably stay the same. Vitality have not been able to establish their best maps in recent months. They like playing Dust2, but they have not won on that map twice in a row since Kyojin joined the team, which is through a total of eight maps played so far. I think Overpass makes more sense given the fact that Vitality have won on that map three times in a row, with the most recent win coming in the playoffs of IEM Cologne against NAVI. B1T almost carried his team to victory with an impressive 35 Kills and a 1.84 Rating, but Vitality still managed to come out on top 16-14, which shows this win was not a fluke, though s1mple did have a rare quiet map with only 13 kills. They were confident enough to pick Overpass and win on it against the team that is now ranked #1 in the world, so surely it would be a solid choice in this spot, especially since it is not one of ENCE’s stronger maps. Nuke has been the most played map for ENCE in recent months, and they beat Vitality on that map last time with eight of the same players on the server, so it does seem logical for them to go back to it in this spot. Vertigo would make the most sense as the decider in this scenario, and both teams have had success on that map.
Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): ZywOo +27 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | shox +4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Kyojin -2 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | misutaaa +5 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 69.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +9 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | misutaaa +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (5 maps): ZywOo +45 K/D Diff, 1.52 Rating | misutaaa +21 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Kyojin +18 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | shox +13 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | apEX +3 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Overpass past three months (8 maps): 4-4 W/L record, 31.2% pistol round win percent, 72.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (8 maps): Spinx +34 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | dycha +15 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | hades +9 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (11 maps): 8-3 W/L record, 68.2% pistol round win percent, 78.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 36.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (11 maps): Spinx +54 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | hades +47 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | dycha +15 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | doto +20 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 72.2% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 44.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): doto +30 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | hades +50 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | dycha +25 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Spinx +17 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Snappi +4 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Vitality wins 2-0. I know the odds make it seem like ENCE have a solid chance here, but I do not see the upset happening with Vitality having plenty of time to prepare for this match-up. Still, I think that this Vitality roster is not as dominant as the one from the end of 2020, and they do have some things to figure out since dropping RpK and adding Kyojin did not feel like the move that was needed to take this French roster to the next level. Like I said, Vitality will have a gameplan for their map pick, and I think they should win on it with ease, whether it is Overpass or some other map that they have identified as a strength for themselves/possible exploitable weakness for ENCE. Vitality have been decent on Nuke with a 3-2 W/L record in the past three months, but that record is more impressive once you consider that their only two losses were against the best Nuke teams in the world, NAVI & Heroic. Vitality managed to get revenge in a French derby rematch against DBL PONEY, as well as beat two Top 15 teams with wins against Spirit and FURIA, so they have clearly been working on this map. When they first added Kyojin, their A site defense was really out of sync as the two young players, Kyojin and misutaaa, struggled to find chemistry. They seemed to have fix most of their issues on this map and have looked a lot more comfortable, so their defense should be really solid as long as apEX does not get punished too much when he tries to take space on the map. Nuke could be a pretty competitive map if it is played, so seeing a third map for this series would not surprise me, though I expect Vitality to win 2-0 more than 2-1. ENCE did win this match-up last time with eight of the same players on the server, so we have to show them some respect I suppose. However, I favor Vitality the deeper we get into these maps, as well as favoring them the deeper that we get into the series, so I would once again favor them on Vertigo or any decider map. Vitality should be the main focus for DFS in my opinion.
Vitality - Team Analysis:
Vitality are not the dominant force that they were this time last year, but Kyojin has improved his ability to play at the top level since signing with Vitality in April 2021 and the team has looked better accordingly. However, the bigger storyline has probably been the excellent form that misutaaa has shown as of late. It makes sense that misutaaa would feel more comfortable within his role in this team since he is no longer the ‘new guy’ anymore, but he has truly been a star player in the past few months. Vitality has always seemed to need more firepower, and misutaaa has brought exactly that to the table with a 1.14 Rating and 0.72 Kills Per Round across 32 maps in the past three months. Keep in mind that this young man is only 18 years old and still has even more room to improve alongside the HLTV #1 Player of 2019 & 2020, ZywOo. Another storyline to mention would be apEX, who took a break from competitive play back in February, but the break ended up being only a short number of days long, and it seemed at the time like he might be rushing back into things given the fact that his reactions on the player cam were almost always explosive. ApEX seemed to be in in a better place mentally after his short break though, and he is just coming off of another player break which should help even more. Vitality needs to show me a bit more consistency before I would put them at the level of a team like Gambit or NAVI, so a playoff run might not be a guarantee for them. This team should be hungry though and they can definitely hold their own in the group stage, plus they are a really scary team when they have this much time to prepare.
ENCE - Team Analysis:
With allu stepping down from the team back in May, this roster may now look completely different than some people might remember it, but allu’s replacement, hades has been the consistent AWPer that ENCE needed. Allu had a reputation of either being God Allu or Bot Allu without anything in between, meaning at any given time he would either make some of the best plays you have ever seen, or he would make highly questionable decisions that would cost his team the round. Allu played 64 maps in 2021 and had a Rating greater than one on 35 of them, which is about 54.7% of the time. Meanwhile hades has played 154 maps in 2021 and has a Rating greater than one on 110 of them, which is about 71.4% of the time. ENCE formed the rest of the core of their international lineup in January 2021 with the signing of Spinx, dycha and Snappi to join the two Finnish players, doto and allu at the time. They finished second in a stacked group during ESL Pro League S13 behind NiP, but ahead of G2, Vitality, FaZe and mousesports. Even with their success last season, most of their players ended up being pretty irrelevant for DFS even on slates where ENCE won. I do not expect them to perform as well this time around either, so they are a risky stack, but you could maybe consider a one-off from this team.
Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($9,400) - There is some truth to ZywOo having a slightly worse year than normal, but that is probably only true due to the changes made to the Vitality roster and the associated growing pains. He still has had a Rating of at least one on 61 of his 79 maps played, which is about 77.2% of the time. That would be outstanding for most players, but that number was at 85.4% in 2020 and 86.3% in 2019, so this year has indeed been more inconsistent for him and his team. Vitality have also been unable to figure out their strengths in the map pool, which has led to trying different maps that might not play to ZywOo’s strengths. But this is still ZywOo that we are talking about, and his 1.27 Rating on the year speaks for itself. People can be quick to discredit him, like when there was a narrative that ZywOo might be bad on Overpass after he had one of the worst maps of his career with 2 Kills against Complexity in February along with a below average performance against an unproven 9z roster in April. However, if we go back to the start of July, ZywOo has played Overpass three times and has a 1.44 Rating with 0.90 Kills per Round during that time, all against quality opponents (NAVI, FURIA, Renegades). ZywOo will be just fine, and he has tremendous upside on Monday, especially considering he was excellent in that 0-2 loss to ENCE. ZywOo is my favorite play on the slate, and I would put try to find the salary to put him at captain if I was only making one lineup. He will almost certainly have high ownership on Draftkings so I understand the reasoning behind wanting to fade him, but I think that he has both the highest floor and highest ceiling of anyone on this slate no matter what happens in this series, so I will happily ride with him in a spot like this. He is my top play for Monday, but the rest of his team is not nearly as appealing to target, so ZywOo could be used as a one-off rather than in a stack, but both seem viable.
apEX ($5,600) - ApEX is a big risk on this slate but the potential upside is definitely there with his playstyle and cheap price on Draftkings. He loses a majority of his opening duels, but that does not really stop him from being involved in them, and if Vitality just completely outclass ENCE then apEX might have the potential for the most frags out of anyone, so of course he makes sense as the cheapest option on his team. He is an aggressive IGL that takes a lot of space on the map, and he always seem to pad his stats with eco frags, so you should consider apEX if you agree that Vitality will handle ENCE with ease.
misutaaa ($8,200) - Misutaaa is absolutely cracked, so if his decision-making can continue at an elite level, then the sky is the limit for him and his team. I mentioned above that he has been in his best form recently, but I am still not sure if we can consistently rely on him to be a part of the top fragging duo with ZywOo, plus he is now priced up as the second most expensive player on the team, so his upside feels limited on Draftkings. I look forward to watching misutaaa continue to improve, but a few months of strong results are not enough for me to consider him and ZywOo in the same regard as other rifler/AWPer carry duos like electronic/s1mple or Ax1Le/sh1ro. ZywOo is a much higher priority for me than anyone else on this team, and I would also rather take a shot on apEX at a way cheaper salary, but riding the hot hand with misutaaa seems completely reasonable.
shox ($7,200) - Shox would have been a no brainer at this price in the past, but he is having the worst statistical year of his legendary career, so he is absolutely a risky play here. Although, if you turn on the broadcast tomorrow and see shox feeling himself with a big smile on his face, then you might regret completely fading him because he truly seems to do his best when he is in a great mood and overflowing with positive energy. He shouldn’t be much of a priority on this slate, but maybe we see him catch fire with a secondary AWP in his hands, depending on the map pool. If shox steps back up the level that we know he is capable of, then that could be the key for Vitality to go on a run.
hades ($7,400) - I’m putting hades ahead of Kyojin because I think that he would be crucial to ENCE’s success if they were to put up a strong showing here. He seemingly has some impressive stats against top teams in recent months, however we must consider that the performances against mousesports, NiP, and FURIA all took place at a charity tournament so those come with an asterisk. The rest of his results are full of tier two domination, so we will see if he can step up to the challenge here. Yes, he is going up against an incredible AWPer in ZywOo, but I think there could be some possibility of a scenario where both of the AWPers end with good stats in a close match. AWPers do not always face head-to-head on the map as much as some people might think. Hades has been a stud against tier two opponents, and I think he is good enough to hold his own against anybody, but I do have Vitality winning this series so this is certainly not the best spot for him.
Kyojin ($6,400) - I do not love getting to Kyojin on most slates since we have now seen a good sample size of his results against tier one opponents, and we know that he is generally not the top fragger for Vitality. He usually plays the anchor position on CT side, which means he can focus strictly on holding the site and putting his incredible aim to work, rather than having to constantly make decisions. On Overpass, he would typically hold monster on B site, so if the enemies keep rushing at him then he could have some multi-kill rounds, but he will not be overly active on the map, so his teammates have more upside in that sense. His price tag is not unreasonable though, so he is still someone to maybe consider basically as a punt play.
Spinx ($8,000) - Spinx has been the hard carry for ENCE since signing with the team, but that has been even more true as of late. The projected map pool also looks favorable Spinx, so he seems like a fairly reasonable play. I think that $8,000 is probably too much to spend on Spinx with this difficult match-up ahead, plus he was relatively quiet the last time these teams played despite his team winning both maps, so this is not the best spot for him.
dycha ($6,600) - Dycha is incredible with his decision-making, and he sometimes finds himself in the mix for top frag with Spinx and hades, so there is some chance that he breaks the slate with pretty low ownership. This is simply a tough match-up though, and his price is not low enough for me to feel confident taking that risk.
Snappi ($4,800) - Snappi is not usually the guy to target on ENCE, so I definitely do not want to prioritize him against Vitality. He is priced under $5,000 so the risk could really pay off, but I would not bank on that happening.
doto ($5,800) - Doto started off the year with some poor performances, but he has a 1.09 Rating in the past three months and has demonstrated that he can still play at a high level, so I suppose that he is not totally out of play if you believe in ENCE.
allu** - BENCHED
Astralis (World rank: #9) vs. Spirit (World rank: #23) - 3:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-105) | Spirit (-120)
Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-285) | Spirit -1.5 (+225)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)
- This is a best-of-three series for the group stage of ESL Pro League S14 - Group A
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.07 | dupreeh 1.05 | Xyp9x 1.00 | gla1ve 0.98 | Bubzkji 0.96
- Spirit - Rating past three months: mir 1.20 | degster 1.15 | sdy 1.05 | magixx 1.05 | chopper 0.94
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other because Dev1ce was still on Astralis instead of Bubzkji when these teams faced back in February at IEM Katowice 2021. Spirit won that series 2-1 (11-16 Inferno / 16-13 Train / 16-1 Dust2) and yes that scoreline on Dust2 is not a typo with Spirit winning 15 rounds in a row before Astralis avoided the shutout with a CT pistol win.
Map Projections:
Astralis removes Mirage
Spirit removes Vertigo
Astralis picks Inferno
Spirit picks Dust2
Astralis removes Ancient
Spirit removes Nuke
Overpass is left over
- This is the first day of the event so Astralis sometimes like to surprise us with their map pick in these spots. Will we see Ancient? It feels like more of a possibility in this series than in the others, but I am not expecting it. Spirit will most likely ban Vertigo, so Inferno seems possible considering this has historically been one of Astralis’ best maps, and it is also one of Spirit’s worst maps. Spirit have won on Inferno two of the past three times played, but they barely scraped by MIBR in overtime and then had an easy win against Endpoint. Prior to the win against MIBR, Spirit had lost on Inferno seven times in a row. The stats show that Spirit is the best team in the world on Dust2 in 2021 with a 1.17 Rating along with a +400 K/D Diff as a team across 30 maps played on Dust2 this year, so the map should be played considering Mirage is a permaban for Astralis. Dust2 was floated through as the decider map last time these teams played, but I think Spirit are more likely to pick it right away this time considering the dominance that they have shown on the map and there is also the elephant in the room: they beat Astralis 16-1 on Dust2 last time. The one-sided nature of that match obviously involves some degree of luck and would be highly unlikely to happen again in a rematch, but Dust2 is an aim-heavy map and Spirit have the better aimers while Astralis have their experience and strategies, which are generally more beneficial on other maps. Overpass would be my best guess as the decider map, but it is pretty difficult to be confident in the maps here outside of Dust2 seeming pretty likely. Astralis are the type of team to sometimes pick a map that plays into their opponents strengths, but if Astralis were to pick Dust2 then it would look like a crazy move on paper. If they were to do something completely unexpected like that then it would be because they think they can exploit Spirit’s gameplan. Like I said, that would be completely unexpected, but sometimes you have to expect the unexpected with Astralis so who knows.
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 30.0% pistol round win percent, 65.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): Magisk +18 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Xyp9x +5 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Bubzkji -4 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 78.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (5 maps): gla1ve +15 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Xyp9x +10 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Magisk +12 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Overpass past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 70.0% pistol round win percent, 64.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Astralis - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (5 maps): dupreeh +15 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (10 maps): 2-8 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 68.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (10 maps): mir +26 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): 13-4 W/L record, 52.9% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (17 maps): mir +66 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | degster +65 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | magixx +33 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | sdy +7 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Spirit - Key stats on Overpass past three months (10 maps): 7-3 W/L record, 45.0% pistol round win percent, 75.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Spirit - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (10 maps): degster +60 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | mir +29 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | sdy +8 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | magixx 0 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Prediction/Narrative:
Spirit wins 2-0. I do not feel great about Astralis being back in an awkward six-man roster situation, though you could argue that they are all playing with something to prove right now, I guess. Spirit can pick Dust2 if they want it since Astralis permaban Mirage, and the best Dust2 team in the world will probably pick and win on Dust2. You have to imagine that their confidence would be sky high on Dust2 after embarrassing Astralis 16-1 last time. Astralis may have a trick or two up their sleeve in terms of the maps, but I do not see many options that look appealing for them besides Inferno. That map would be a near toss-up even if you did give the edge to Astralis. This could very well go to a third map, but I think Spirit will beat Astralis on their own map pick for the sweep, whether it is Inferno or something else, based on where the rosters currently stand and the additional element that this tournament is online instead of LAN.
Astralis - Team Analysis:
“I expect Philip to be an active part of the roster from day one” were the exact words of Kasper Hvidt, Astralis’ Director of Sports, when the team signed the young Danish AWPer, Phillip “Lucky” Ewald, back in July. It seems like he was speaking figuratively in terms of Lucky’s involvement with the team being behind-the-scenes for now, but gla1ve and his wife have a child on the way soon, and Lucky might not actually start playing until gla1ve is away from the team on paternity leave. Congratulations and best of luck to gla1ve and his wife, and not to get too personal here, but for research purposes: gla1ve did tweet out that the baby would be due towards the end of September, so it seems like a reasonable timeline to have gla1ve mentoring Lucky for a month or so before he makes his debut with the team. Perhaps more roster moves are in store for Astralis in the future, but for now everything still does make sense based on the announcement from the organization, so that is what I expect to happen. What will be the plan once gla1ve is ready to return? That remains unclear, but I am sure that we will know more information before the time comes. We could even get last minute news from Astralis about any potential plans or lineup switches that they might have, so stay tuned if anything changes. Lucky is not in the player pool on Draftkings, so we do not have to worry about him in that sense. This lineup would mean that gla1ve is still on the AWP for the time being, and he has looked really proficient with the AWP in his hands ever since he took over a majority of the AWPing burden from dupreeh. When Astralis first started putting Bubzkji in their lineup, they used him only on Nuke with Xyp9x sitting out on that map, so a similar arrangement could maybe be in store for Lucky, even though Bubzkji’s introduction to the lineup seemed to be awkward and drawn-out until dev1ce left and there was an open spot. The Danes did perform well at IEM Cologne, but that was the first LAN event of the year while ESL Pro League is online, so Astralis lose any edge that they may have gained in a LAN environment.
Spirit - Team Analysis:
Spirit seemed to have taken their roster to the next level when they signed degster in January to replace iDISBALANCE. They won degster’s first series with the team on January 27th and then did not lose a single best-of-three against a team other than Gambit until April 18th when G2 beat them in three maps with the final map going to overtime. Degster was regularly putting up monster stats and looked like one of the top AWPers in the world. Once the first LAN tournament of the year came around, degster showed up with a 1.23 Rating and 0.82 Kills per Round across seven maps played in the IEM Cologne Play-In tournament, which secured Spirit a spot at IEM Cologne. They lost both of their series played at Cologne, 1-2 against Heroic and 1-2 against FaZe, yet degster did all that he could to help his team win and finished with an incredible 1.34 Rating, 0.88 Kills per Round and only 0.52 Deaths per Round across six maps played. Degster continues to prove himself and works extremely hard to stay at the top, and I think you could argue that he is still one of the most underrated players in Counter-Strike. However, his team was amongst the first group of teams eliminated at IEM Cologne and failing to meet expectations has been somewhat of a theme for this roster. The rest of their core has been together since 2019 and seems to be solid overall. They did go on to win the lower tier event that was going on at the time, Pinnacle Cup II, which did have $80,000 as the top prize so that was a nice win, but it was nowhere near as prestigious of a win as Cologne would have been. Spirit can be a top team in the world on their best days, and I do think that they have a promising future, perhaps even making a playoff run at this event if they can make it out of Group A.
Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
degster ($7,600) - Only $7,600 for degster?! Degster is the top option for me on this slate only behind ZywOo, based on his salary and current form. Draftkings has him listed as out which is not the case as far as we know (I’m assuming he is still listed as out from a previous DK contest when Spirit played Fiend at Pinnacle Cup II back in July and degster was announced as out due to not feeling well the day after getting his vaccine). I could see degster taking advantage of the fact that Astralis do not have a dedicated AWPer right now, and if he gets really comfortable out there with some of the peeks that he is able to take, then Astralis might be in for some trouble, and degster would be in the running for highest scorer on the slate in that case. G2 is a team in a similar situation as Astralis with AmaNEk somewhat recently taking over the AWP duty after kennyS was benched, and degster had 43 Kills with 112.9 ADR and a 1.82 Rating in a 15-19 overtime loss on Mirage in a best-of-one when he last went up against G2. AWPers do not always face off in AWP duels on the map, but if there is an elite AWPer on one side and someone who is just decent with the AWP on the other side, then I think the elite AWPer can get away with a lot of aggressive peeks that they know are unlikely to get punished. Degster won 11 out of 12 of his opening duels against G2 on Mirage, which demonstrates just how comfortable he was against AmaNEk, and the story should be similar against gla1ve, dupreeh, or even Lucky for that matter since he is new to this level of play. So, I love this spot for degster even if Astralis were to win the series, and his inexpensive $7,600 price tag makes him even more of a favorite for me.
mir ($8,400) - Degster is my favorite for this series but mir is not far behind and has another appealing salary. Mir has been the top rated player for Spirit and some rounds he seems to just hold the ‘W’ key, meaning he does not stop moving while he aggressively hunts down more kills. Mir and Degster look like an excellent pairing since they are both usually at the top of the leaderboards for this team. This is not the easiest match-up for mir and I am sure that Astralis will have ways to try and shut him down specifically, but he should still be a top option here and $8,400 looks to be more than reasonable for his salary.
sdy ($6,000) - Against Astralis, sdy is certainly not a lock to perform well, but he is one of my favorite value options at only $6,000. He could end up as one of the top fantasy point per dollar plays on the slate if Spirit manages to win this series, though he is not quite a ‘must-play’ option since going up against Astralis can prove to be challenging. We will probably see him with the secondary AWP in some rounds like on the CT side of Dust2 holding B site. Overall, he has been more consistent and reliable than magixx and chopper, so I do see him as the third best option on Spirit in terms of fantasy production, and getting him at $6K makes a ton of sense because that is one of the lowest salaries that I have ever seen offered for sdy on Draftkings.
magixx ($6,800) - I like magixx almost as much as sdy but the pricing makes sdy a slightly better option in my opinion. Magixx had the highest drop off in terms of Rating at the first LAN event of the year with a 0.80 Rating at IEM Cologne compared to a 1.03 Rating online. This event is back to being online, so magixx is back in his comfort zone now, and will likely improve on LAN in the future considering he is only 18 years old. He is always grinding hard streaming FPL, which is essentially a pro league for CS:GO pick-up games. He was even named the top EU FPL player of July, so his time being quarantined in his hotel in Cologne seems to have been put to good use as well. His aim will make you think he is the best CS player in the world at times, and those multi-kill rounds that we have seen from him should become more and more common if he keeps working this hard to improve, so do not sleep on the young Russian rifler.
gla1ve ($6,200) - I love degster the most for this series, but gla1ve is still in consideration as a cheap option that has looked good with the AWP recently. I do think that if he is going to basically mentor Lucky and teach him strategies for a month or so before he leaves to spend time with his new baby, then gla1ve could be extra motivated right now, and he is already one of the hardest working IGLs as-is. I think Spirit should be the favorites here, and Astralis are typically a popular team on Draftkings in terms of ownership on any given slate, so stacking Spirit is still much more of a priority for me.
dupreeh ($7,800) - Dupreeh has seen his stats recover a bit after struggling as the primary AWPer in the absence of dev1ce. With gla1ve stepping in to take over the maps/spots that dupreeh was not comfortable with, dupreeh was able to get back into his comfort zone and I think we will continue to see his stats improve as he settles into a role that is a better fit. I think dupreeh should be the most expensive option on Astralis, so I like him a lot relative to magisk, who is $1,000 more expensive on Draftkings.
Chopper ($5,400) - Chopper is super risky and I see this as bad spot for him. His price on Draftkings usually sits around $5-$6K, and I only like to play him when Spirit are in a position to dominate. I have Spirit beating Astralis, but this could still be a competitive series and chopper becomes an absolute punt play in those spots. I would mostly stay away unless you really, really need the salary relief.
Bubzkji ($5,400) - Bubzkji is still underrated, and he has the potential to pop off at any time, so $5,400 is a salary to consider. He would be one of my favorites in an Astralis stack, but stacking Spirit is much more of a priority for me on Monday.
magisk ($8,800) - Magisk has been the highest rated player on Astralis in recent months, but his role has stayed the same more than anyone as this team has gone through some changes, and I do not think that that he will be best option for fantasy production on Astralis moving forward despite being the most expensive player for this match-up on Draftkings. I also think there are much better spend up options on this slate. Magisk has his share of big days, but he does not have enough upside for me here at $8,800, especially since he was the worst player on the server by far when these teams last met.
Xyp9x ($7,000) - Xyp9x played well at IEM Cologne as the highest rated player on the team with a 1.07 Rating across 13 maps, so his most recent form was good, but he performs better on LAN and this event is online. It makes sense to play him in an Astralis stack because when he does well, then he is usually anchoring the B site to perfection, and his success tends to correlate with the team’s success, while a bad day for him can feel like a free site for the T-sided opponents, so it goes both ways. Xyp9x has been inconsistent during the ‘Online Era’ of CS:GO, and this does not appear to be a favorable spot for him against Spirit. He was also the player that got substituted when Astralis introduced Bubzkji into the lineup, so who knows what the future holds Xyp9x now that Astralis are back to having a six-man roster with the addition of Lucky.