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Heroic (World rank: #4) vs. ENCE (World rank: #5) - 10:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-190) | ENCE (+155)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+165) | ENCE +1.5 (-200)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the semi-finals of BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 Europe
  • Heroic - Rating at event: cadiaN 1.61 | refrezh 1.36 | sjuush 1.09 | TeSeS 1.08 | stavn 1.03
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.25 | TeSeS 1.11 | cadiaN 1.08 | sjuush 1.08 | refrezh 1.06
  • ENCE - Rating at event: Spinx 1.45 | dycha 1.26 | Snappi 1.17 | hades 1.03 | Maden 0.89
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.18 | hades 1.12 | dycha 1.11 | Maden 1.01 | Snappi 0.98

H2H Data:

  • These teams faced in August 2021 at ESL Pro League Season 14 and Heroic won 2-1 (5-16 Mirage / 16-14 Overpass / 16-14 Nuke), though ENCE were playing with doto prior to adding Maden at that time. Stavn led the server with 64 kills, while Snappi led the server with a 1.23 Rating across three maps played.

Map Projections:

ENCE removes Inferno

Heroic removes Dust2

ENCE picks Mirage

Heroic picks Vertigo

ENCE removes Overpass

Heroic removes Ancient

Nuke is left over

Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-1.

Heroic are the highest-rated team at BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 EU with a 1.24 Team Rating; however, they have only played two maps against the team that was by far the lowest-ranked at the event, NKT. Still, the Danes look to be in great form with a 27-11 W/L record across 38 maps played in the past three months. Heroic just qualified for a Legends spot at the Major with a huge win against NAVI. As for ENCE, they have been rolling as well with a 45-26 W/L record across 71 maps played in the past three months, including a solid win against Copenhagen Flames in the quarter-finals of this event, so both teams are certainly playing well at the moment. Both teams are currently ranked top five in the world, so we could be in for a barnburner.

I expect ENCE to pick Mirage in this spot considering it is their most played map and they picked it last time against Heroic and won 16-5. Heroic have been pretty good on Mirage and actually have a slightly higher win rate on the map than ENCE in the past three months, and the Danes also have a 79% 5v4 conversion rate across six maps played. ENCE could also consider picking Ancient, where Heroic have struggled, or even Nuke, where both teams are elite. I’d favor ENCE on Mirage, Nuke and Ancient, so if two of those three maps end up in the pool then ENCE should be in great shape. This match-up is a coinflip so it doesn’t make much sense for ENCE to be such underdogs and I’d prefer to back them at the cheaper pricing on Draftkings, especially given the potential map pool. This series was also extremely close last time with two maps going 30 rounds, and ENCE have seemingly improved since then with the addition of Maden, so I’ll take ENCE in a close one. 

  • On Mirage, dycha leads ENCE with a 1.23 Rating and 1.20 K/D ratio across 19 maps played in the past three months. 
  • On Vertigo, Spinx leads ENCE with a 1.22 Rating and 1.32 K/D ratio across nine maps played in the past three months.
  • On Nuke, hades leads ENCE with a 1.22 Rating and 1.40 K/D ratio across 14 maps played in the past three months.
  • Maden leads ENCE with 23.6% opening duel attempts across 71 maps played in the past three months. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Spinx ($8,000) | dycha ($6,200) | stavn ($9,000) | hades ($7,600) | Maden ($5,400) | sjuush ($6,400) | Snappi ($4,600) | refrezh ($5,600)

 

Complexity (World rank: #22) vs. MiBR (World rank: #24) - 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-135) | MiBR (+110)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+205) | MiBR +1.5 (-260)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the semi-finals of BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 North America
  • Complexity - Rating at event: N/A
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.13 | Grim 1.10 | junior 1.05 | FaNg 1.01 | JT 0.96
  • MiBR - Rating at event: N/A
  • MiBR - Rating past three months: JOTA 1.23 | chelo 1.22 | exit 1.09 | Tuurtle 1.08 | WOOD7 1.01

H2H Data:

  • These teams faced in February at BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022 and MIBR swept 2-0 (16-13 Nuke / 16-14 Ancient), though brnz4n was standing in for chelo at that time. Exit led the server with 53 kills, while JOTA led with a 1.37 Rating across two maps played.

Map Projections:

MiBR removes Mirage

Complexity removes Dust2

MiBR picks Overpass

Complexity picks Inferno

MiBR removes Nuke

Complexity removes Vertigo

Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Complexity wins 2-1.

MIBR swept Complexity last time these teams met, plus the Brazilians were playing with a substitute in place of one of their best players, chelo, At that point in time, Complexity had only played seven official maps together, and they hadn’t recorded a single win yet, so MIBR definitely caught them at a good time. Complexity have a 23-19 W/L record across 42 maps played since that series, and they have beaten some of the top teams in the region, including Liquid and GODSENT. Thus, I certainly feel better about Complexity’s chances this time around. Still, MIBR have been really solid with a 45-13 W/L record across 58 maps played in the past three months. MIBR have played an easier schedule than Complexity for the most part, but the Brazilians have managed wins recently against strong teams from the region like Imperial, 9z, and paiN. On paper, MIBR make sense as an underdog in this spot, but Complexity’s chances look much better the deeper you dive into the stats.

Both teams typically ban Mirage, which could affect the outcome of the map veto. MiBR banned it last time when these teams played, but maybe they consider floating it through. Inferno has been Complexity’s best map as of late having won four in a row. They have a 75.4% 5v4 conversion rate and a ridiculous 47.4% 4v5 conversion rate during that time, and I’d favor them against MiBR on that map. MiBR would ideally pick Dust2, but I expect CoL to ban it, so the Brazilians may consider a map like Overpass, where Complexity have struggled. Ancient could end up as the decider, and I’d favor Complexity to win despite their recent stats on the map looking a bit rough. CoL have played that map a lot against some really strong teams, and they have shown flashes of brilliance at times. Nuke is another possibility for the decider map and Complexity have won three in a row on that map, so either way, I think they will take this series in three maps if it does in fact go the distance. 

  • On Overpass, floppy leads CoL with a 1.04 Rating, while junior leads with a 1.10 K/D ratio across four maps played in the past three months. 
  • On Inferno, floppy leads CoL with a 1.28 Rating and 1.43 K/D ratio across eight maps played in the past three months. 
  • On Ancient, floppy leads CoL with a 1.14 Rating, while junior leads with a 1.11 K/D ratio across 13 maps played in the past three months.
  • JT leads CoL with 25.9% opening duel attempts across 44 maps played in the past three months. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

junior ($6,800) | floppy ($8,800) | chelo ($7,200) | Grim ($7,800) | FaNg ($6,000) | JOTA ($8,200) | JT ($5,000) | WOOD7 ($4,800) 

 

Liquid (World rank: #13) vs. paiN (World rank: #34) - 4:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-1100) | paiN (+720)

Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (-225) | paiN +1.5 (+180)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+215) | Under 2.5 (-275)

  • This is a best-of-three online series for the semi-finals of BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2022 North America
  • Liquid - Rating at event: N/A
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.24 | NAF 1.19 | oSee 1.15 | shox 0.99 | nitr0 0.98
  • paiN - Rating at event: N/A
  • paiN - Rating past three months: nython 1.18 | biguzera 1.11 | NEKIZ 1.10 | hardzao 1.09 | PKL 1.04

H2H Data:

  • These rosters faced earlier this month in a best-of-one on Mirage at the RMR. Liquid dominated 16-1 and nitr0 topped the leaderboards with 21 kills and a 2.01 Rating.

Map Projections:

paiN removes Inferno

Liquid removes Nuke

paiN picks Dust2

Liquid picks Mirage

paiN removes Overpass

Liquid removes Ancient

Vertigo is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-0.’

Liquid are the biggest favorite on the slate by far at (-1100) moneyline odds. They’ve won six series in a row, and their lineup looks to be piecing it together with a 13-4 W/L record across 17 maps played in the past month. Liquid have shown that they are elite against their own region, and paiN are no exception as an opponent. Liquid embarrassed paiN in a 16-1 whomping on Mirage, and the gap between these teams appears to be significant. There just isn’t much to say for the Brazilians in this spot. PaiN have shown that they are one of the better teams out of Brazil with a 38-24 W/L record across 62 maps played in the past three months, but they haven’t proven that they can beat a team of Liquid’s caliber.

Liquid will likely pick Mirage here. It is their most played map, they’ve been solid with an 8-3 W/L record across 11 maps played in the past three months, and they destroyed paiN on it last time. Ultimately, I’d consider Liquid to be a favorite on any map in the pool though. PaiN’s best chance of winning a map would probably be Dust2, where they have an 8-2 W/L record across 10 maps played in the past three months along with an 87.2% 5v4 conversion rate and 36% 4v5 conversion rate. Liquid did also get embarrassed themselves on Dust2 by Players AKA Gambit AKA Cloud9 last month in a 1-16 loss. So, if paiN have any chance in this series, it would probably be on Dust2. Still, I’d pick Liquid to win on that aim-heavy map given their superior talent and aim. If this series does somehow go three maps, then Liquid should have a 2-1 win locked up.

  • On Dust2, oSee leads Liquid with a 1.25 Rating, while NAF leads with a 1.43 K/D ratio across five maps played in the past three months.
  • On Mirage, NAF & EliGE lead Liquid with a 1.25 Rating, while EliGE leads with a 1.27 K/D ratio across 11 maps played in the past three months.
  • EliGE leads Liquid with 26.5% opening duel attempts across 43 maps played in the past three months. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

EliGE ($9,600) | NAF ($9,200) | oSee ($8,600) | nitr0 ($6,200) | shox ($7,000) | nython ($6,800) 

 

*Top Stacks: Liquid, Complexity, ENCE
*Favorite Captain Plays: EliGE, NAF, floppy, Spinx, oSee, stavn, hades, Grim
*Favorite Value Plays: junior, nitr0, dycha, Maden, shox, chelo, sjuush, FaNg