Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. AGO (World rank: #137) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-1555) | AGO (+940)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (-285) | AGO +1.5 (+225)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+265) | Under 2.5 (-340)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.34 | refrezh 1.14 | TeSeS 1.12 | sjuush 1.12 | cadiaN 0.97
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.29 | sjuush  1.11 | TeSeS 1.10 | cadiaN 1.07 | refrezh 1.03
  • AGO - Rating at event: F1KU 0.99 | ultimate 0.94 | Furlan 0.91 | mwlky 0.83 | leman 0.81
  • AGO - Rating past three months: mwlky 1.01 | F1KU 1.00 | ultimate 0.98 | Furlan  0.93 | leman 0.89

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

AGO removes Overpass

Heroic removes Dust2

AGO picks Mirage

Heroic picks Nuke

AGO removes Inferno

Heroic removes Ancient

Vertigo is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-0.

Heroic are the third highest-rated team at this event so far with a 1.14 Team Rating across seven maps played, and they technically haven’t qualified for playoffs yet, so they will be focused on securing the win against a much weaker team. AGO have put up respectable performances through the first three days of ESL Pro League S15, but they have only been able to find a win against Complexity, who are 0-3. The odds have Heroic as a massive (-1555) moneyline favorite and I see no reason to fade them here. The Danes have five players capable of top fragging as we saw with refrezh leading the charge with 53 kills across two maps against EG on Friday, though stavn is clearly the most consistent presence on the server. Heroic are undefeated at this event, and they have now won six series in a row, plus their map pool is deep. I can’t think of a single map that AGO would win on, but I have to imagine that a puggy map like Mirage would serve them better than giving Heroic CT Ancient to start. Either way, this should be a fast sweep for the Danes.

  • On Mirage, sjuush leads Heroic with a 1.37 Rating, while cadiaN leads with a 1.36 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.
  • On Nuke, stavn leads Heroic with a 1.18 Rating, while refrezh leads with a 1.13 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • Stavn is currently the fourth highest-rated player at the event with a 1.34 Rating across seven maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

stavn ($9,600) | sjuush ($6,200) | refrezh ($7,200) | cadiaN ($9,200) | TeSeS ($8,400) | ultimate ($5,400)

 

Complexity (World rank: #27) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #48) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-145) | Evil Geniuses (+120)

Map Handicap: Complexity -1.5 (+205) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-260)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-130)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Complexity - Rating at event: floppy 1.12 | FaNg 1.03 | junior 1.01 | Grim 0.91 | JT 0.88
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.11 | junior 1.07 | FaNg  1.04 | Grim 1.00 | JT 0.90
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: Brehze 0.92 | CeRq 0.88 | RUSH  0.75 | autimatic 0.75 | Stewie2K 0.60
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.03 | RUSH 0.95 | Brehze 0.94 | CeRq 0.94 | Stewie2K 0.88

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Evil Geniuses removes Ancient

Complexity removes Mirage

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

Complexity picks Vertigo 

Evil Geniuses removes Nuke

Complexity removes Overpass

Dust2 is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Complexity wins 2-1.

Surprise, surprise: the two North American teams are at the bottom of the group with 0-3 records. Evil Geniuses are already eliminated from playoffs, and Complexity need a miracle to qualify, so this match-up is essentially just for pride. Junior recently declared Complexity as one of the best teams in the region, and I guarantee that Evil Geniuses took that comment personally and would love to make the AWPer eat his words.  Neither of these teams are playing well at the moment, but Complexity have at least been competitive at times. Against NAVI, Complexity won a total of 27 rounds across two maps played, while EG only won 12. Against Heroic, Complexity won a total of 23 rounds, while EG only won 18. Thus, it’s hard to argue that Evil Geniuses have looked better at this event in any way, shape, or form. Still, this is an NA derby, and anything can happen with two North American teams on the server. I’m expecting a scrappy series here that stays close throughout. Complexity should certainly be the favorites, but EG will likely ban away Ancient, which is CoL’s most played map with their lineup. I’d consider Complexity a slight favorite on any map that ends up being played, though I’d be surprised to see either team run away with this series.

  • On Inferno, floppy leads CoL with a 1.16 Rating, while junior leads with  1.25 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
  • On Vertigo, FaNg leads CoL with a 1.18 Rating and 1.22 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.
  • On Dust2, floppy leads CoL with a 1.13 Rating and 1.13 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

FaNg ($6,000) | floppy ($8,800) | autimatic ($6,400) | junior ($7,800) | RUSH ($4,800) | Grim ($6,800) | JT ($5,200)

 

Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. Astralis (World rank: #11) - 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-180) | Astralis (+150)

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-210) | Astralis +1.5 (+170)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.49 | b1t 1.42 | electronic 1.21 | Perfecto 1.13 | Boombl4 N/A
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.33 | b1t 1.16 | electronic  1.07 | Perfecto 1.04 | Boombl4 0.92
  • Astralis - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.32 | blameF 1.26 | gla1ve 1.10 | Farlig 0.98 | Xyp9x 0.97
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.17 | k0nfig 1.09 | Farlig  0.98 | gla1ve 0.96 | Xyp9x 0.93

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in January at BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2022 when Lucky was still in the Astralis lineup. Astralis won 19-17 in a best-of-one on Mirage, and blameF topped the leaderboards with 33 kills and a 1.25 Rating. 

Map Projections:

Astralis removes Dust2

NAVI removes Vertigo

Astralis picks Ancient

NAVI picks Mirage

Astralis removes Nuke

NAVI removes Inferno

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.

We found out on Friday from s1mple/gla1ve that Boombl4 tested negative for COVID, so we can expect to see him back in the NAVI lineup on Saturday. This should be an upgrade for NAVI, but they are already the highest-rated team at the event with a 1.24 Rating across six maps played, so change might not necessarily be ideal for them at the moment. Beyond that, NAVI have already qualified for the playoffs, while a win for Astralis would be crucial for the Danes to secure their own spot. We’ve seen NAVI lose focus in spots like these plenty of times in the past when their back isn’t up against the wall, and it could happen again here given the standings. Additionally, Astralis won when these teams last faced, which should give the Danes the confidence necessary to potentially pull an upset in this best-of-three. Astralis were one round away from being 3-0 at this event without dropping a single map, and their new lineup with Farlig has looked solid overall. Their strategy has basically just been “k0nfig go kill”, and the Danish rifler has really stepped up. We probably can’t expect to see k0nfig holding the W Key while he runs through his opponents like he did against AGO, but if he can continue his good form then he is arguably the best rifler on the server. Given the history between these teams and the current playoff outlook, I firmly believe that Astralis are a live underdog in this spot. Astralis have won five in a row on Ancient, while NAVI have only played it twice this year, so an upset could be brewing on that map with Vertigo as NAVI’s permaban. NAVI will likely pick Dust2/Mirage depending on what Astralis ban, and both of those maps could go either way. Overpass could end up as the decider and Astralis would look to redeem themselves on that map after a strong performance against Heroic that ended in a meltdown. I think the Danes are capable of stealing this series from NAVI, and I would rather ride with them at the cheaper Draftkings pricing.

  • On Ancient, k0nfig leads Astralis with a 1.31 Rating, while blameF leads with a 1.43 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022. Farlig played well on that map against Heroic on Thursday with 23 kills and a 1.21 Rating.
  • On Mirage, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.16 Rating and 1.21 K/D ratio across seven maps played in 2022. Farlig played well on that map against AGO on Friday with 19 kills and a 1.25 Rating. 
  • On Overpass, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.21 Rating and 1.19 K/D ratio across nine maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):  

k0nfig ($6,600) | blameF ($8,000) | s1mple ($9,000) | Farlig ($7,000) | b1t ($7,600) | gla1ve ($5,800) | Perfecto ($6,600) | Xyp9x ($5,000) | electronic ($8,600) 

 

*Top Stacks: Heroic, Complexity, Astralis

*Favorite captain options: stavn, floppy, blameF, cadiaN, s1mple, junior, TeSeS, b1t

*Favorite value plays: sjuush, k0nfig, FaNg, refrezh, Farlig, autimatic, Perfecto, RUSH, Grim, Xyp9x, JT