Astralis (World rank: #11) vs. AGO (World rank: #137) - 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-1125) | AGO (+725)

Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (-245) | AGO +1.5 (+200)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+240) | Under 2.5 (-305)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Astralis - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.31 | blameF  1.16 | gla1ve 1.11 | Xyp9x 0.96 | Farlig 0.91
  • Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.15 | k0nfig 1.08 | gla1ve 0.96 | Xyp9x 0.92 | Farlig 0.91
  • AGO - Rating at event: F1KU 1.03 | ultimate 0.99 | Furlan 0.94 | leman 0.88 | mwlky 0.79
  • AGO - Rating past three months: F1KU 1.01 | ultimate 1.01 | mwlky 1.01 | Furlan 0.94 | leman 0.92 

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

AGO removes Overpass

Astralis removes Mirage

AGO picks Dust2

Astralis picks Ancient

AGO removes Nuke

Astralis removes Vertigo

Inferno is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-0.

Astralis is the biggest favorite on a slate full of favorites despite both of these teams having a 1-1 record at ESL Pro League S15. Astralis won their first map, Ancient, against Heroic, and then they had a 15-8 lead on map two, Overpass, but they somehow lost a 4v1 situation in round 24 and Heroic pulled a miraculous comeback. If Astralis had just closed out that round, we would be talking about how solid their lineup looks with Farlig, so I don’t want to overreact to that loss, especially since it was a chaotic Danish derby. Still, Astralis are the sixth highest-rated team at the event so far with a 1.09 Rating across five maps, and they did look really strong in the beginning of their series on Thursday. AGO also deserve at least some respect after taking NAVI to seven overtimes on Wednesday, and then fighting back in a comeback win against Complexity on Thursday. 

Astralis will likely ban Mirage, which should leave Dust2 as an option for AGO. We have seen AGO lose on Dust2 to both NAVI and Complexity in the past two days, so they may consider changing up their pick. However, Dust2 has been Astralis’ worst map since they signed blameF & k0nfig with a 2-5 W/L record across seven maps played, so it should be a decent option for AGO. Dust2 can be an AWPer’s paradise, so perhaps Farlig can help lead the Danes to victory. Astralis will likely pick Ancient, where they have now won five times in a row against good competition. Astralis have a 79.1% 5v4 conversion rate and 65.2% CT round win rate during those five maps on Ancient. The Danes absolutely need to win here if they want to qualify for the playoffs, and I don’t see them fumbling this series as they are the much more talented team. Dust2 could possibly be a point of weakness for Astralis, but I think that their superior aim can carry them on an aim-heavy map such as Dust2, plus the addition of Farlig should help with the AWP being so crucial on that map. 

  • On Dust2, blameF leads Astralis with a 0.93 Rating and 0.85 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022. K0nfig leads the team with 27.1% opening duel attempts during that time.
  • On Ancient, k0nfig leads Astralis with a 1.31 Rating, while blameF leads with a 1.43 K/D ratio across eight maps played in 2022. K0nfig leads the team with 26.9% opening duel attempts during that time.
  • Dust2 has been a strong map historically for Xyp9x. He leads his team with a career 1.04 Rating across 317 maps played.
  • K0nfig is currently the fifth highest-rated player at the event with a 1.31 Rating across five maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

k0nfig ($8,800) | blameF ($10,600) | Xyp9x ($6,600) | gla1ve ($7,600) | Farlig ($9,800) | leman ($4,400)

 

Heroic (World rank: #5) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #48) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-710) | Evil Geniuses (+500)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (-170) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (+140)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+185) | Under 2.5 (-230)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.32 | TeSeS 1.13 | sjuush 1.13 | refrezh 1.01 | cadiaN 0.98
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.29 | sjuush 1.11 | TeSeS  1.10 | cadiaN 1.08 | refrezh 0.99
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: Brehze 0.93 | CeRq 0.83 | autimatic  0.73 | RUSH 0.69 | Stewie2K 0.58
  • Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: autimatic 1.07 | RUSH 0.96 | Brehze 0.95 | CeRq 0.94 | Stewie2K 0.92

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Evil Geniuses removes Ancient

Heroic removes Dust2

Evil Geniuses picks Inferno

Heroic picks Nuke

Evil Geniuses removes Mirage

Heroic removes Vertigo

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-1.

Heroic is another massive favorite on this slate, but if there is one underdog that I would look to in this spot, it would be Evil Geniuses. Yes, EG have looked terrible at this event, and yes, they are without their coach, maLeK, for the group stage of this event due to medical treatment, so they are obviously a risky play. However, this slate is full of heavy favorites, and we have to look for value somewhere. Keep in mind that when EG also looked awful prior to their 2-1 win over Heroic in June 2021 at IEM Summer. EG’s roster has changed significantly since then with only CeRq & Brehze remaining, while Heroic’s roster remains intact. Still, I think that EG matches up well stylistically against Heroic with the Danes often playing a gamble-heavy style of Counter-Strike. Heroic have been playing well as the third highest-rated team at ESL Pro League S15 with a 1.11 Team Rating, but they played two fairly close maps against a struggling Complexity roster, and they were one round away from getting swept by Astralis, who are playing with a new player. Heroic have proven that they can win in this studio-LAN environment, but it is still not an online event where Heroic do their best work. Thus, there are reasons to have some doubts about Heroic in this spot.

We still haven’t seen much of Evil Geniuses’ map pool at this point, but Inferno has been their most played map with this lineup, and I think it makes the most sense as the pick here as an underdog. Heroic have a better record than EG on Inferno at 2-1 across three maps played versus 2-3 across five maps played for EG, but Evil Geniuses notably still have the higher 5v4 conversion rate (72.9% vs. 68.8%) as well as a slightly higher CT win rate (50.8% vs. 50.0%) during that time, so Heroic have not been dominant in their wins. Heroic may look to pick Overpass again, but we just saw Evil Geniuses’ pick that map on Thursday. EG got destroyed 2-16 against NAVI on Overpass, but the fact that they picked it must mean they have some confidence on it, so Heroic may look to float it through as the decider. Nuke might be a better option as a punish pick for Heroic since it has historically been one of their best maps, and we have only seen EG play it once so far. I definitely still expect Heroic to win this series, but if I had to pick an underdog to steal at least a map on Friday, it would be Evil Geniuse, I guess. 

  • On Inferno, stavn leads Heroic with a 1.31 Rating and 1.23 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022. Stavn also leads with 29.2% opening duel attempts during that time. 
  • On Nuke, TeSeS leads Heroic with a 1.17 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022. Stavn leads the team with 33.3% of the opening duel attempts during that time.
  • On Overpass, stavn leads Heroic with a 1.41 Rating and 1.52 K/D ratio across six maps played in 2022. TeSeS leads the team with 27.2% of the opening duel attempts during that time. 
  • CeRq played well when these teams last met with 64 kills, 58 deaths and a 1.13 Rating across three maps played. He was hitting some crisp shots against NAVI on Thursday, and I think he is really hard to ignore here at only $4,000 on Draftkings. With the AWP in his hands, his floor and ceiling are relatively high and it really doesn’t take much for him to pay off this cheap salary. 
  • Stavn is currently the fourth highest-rated player at the event with a 1.32 Rating across five maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

CeRq ($4,000) | stavn ($10,000) | TeSeS ($8,200) | refrezh ($6,200) | Stewie2K ($4,800) | sjuush ($7,400) | cadiaN ($9,000) | autimatic ($7,000) 

 

NAVI (World rank: #1) vs. Complexity (World rank: #27) - 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-730) | Complexity (+515)

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-170) | Complexity +1.5 (+140)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+185) | Under 2.5 (-230)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group D
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.58 | b1t 1.49 | electronic 1.21 | Perfecto 1.15 | headtr1ck 1.07 
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.33 | headtr1ck 1.25 | b1t  1.16 | electronic 1.06 | Perfecto 1.04
  • Complexity - Rating at event: floppy 1.12 | junior 1.10 | FaNg 1.02 | Grim 0.96 | JT 0.83
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: floppy 1.11 | junior 1.09 | FaNg  1.04 | Grim 1.02 | JT 0.90

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Map Projections:

Complexity removes Mirage

NAVI removes Vertigo

Complexity picks Ancient

NAVI picks Dust2

Complexity removes Nuke 

NAVI removes Inferno

Overpass is left over

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.

The best team in the world made quick work of Evil Geniuses on Thursday, which now makes NAVI the highest-rated team at the event with a 1.30 Team Rating across four maps played. They are still playing a scrappy, puggy style without their IGL, Boombl4, but their individual form is so strong that it hasn’t really mattered, plus they haven’t faced a difficult match-up yet. S1mple & b1t lead the event as the two highest-rated players so far, while headtr1ck looked solid as a stand-in against EG. Headtr1ck has had now had a Rating of at least 1.27 on three out of the four maps that he has played with NAVI’s main roster, so he is playing with some confidence. On the other hand, Complexity are not playing with confidence as a team, or so it appears. Their individuals continue to make plays to set them up to win rounds, but they are now 0-2 at ESL Pro League S15 after their loss to the lowest-ranked team at the event, AGO. 

Complexity have picked Ancient as their map pick over the past two days, but they have lost it twice in a row after strong starts on T side, so perhaps their woes on the CT side will cause them to pick something else. NAVI have won five in a row on Ancient, including eight of their last nine with the only loss ironically coming against Complexity’s old roster, which featured none of the same players. NAVI will likely pick Dust2 in this spot since it’s an easy map to slot in headtr1ck as a stand-in, and they have already won twice on it with this roster. Dust2 might not be the optimal map pick against CoL, but I’d still have to give NAVI a massive edge on both Ancient & Dust2. Complexity desperately need to win, and there isn’t much value on the Draftkings slate, so you could maybe look to mix in a player like junior into your lineup, but I’d still focus on NAVI here since this series should be a sweep. 

  • On Ancient, b1t leads NAVI with a 1.41 Rating and 1.93 K/D ratio across one map played in 2022. Boombl4 led the team in opening duel attempts, so it will be interesting to see who replaces his aggression - likely s1mple or electronic who were tied with the second most opening duel attempts on NAVI. 
  • On Dust2, s1mple leads NAVI with a 1.49 Rating and 1.73 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022. B1t leads NAVI with 31.3% opening duel attempts during that time. 
  • Perfecto was the second highest-rated player on NAVI with a 1.28 Rating along with 24 kills when the team played Ancient for the only time this year. 
  • S1mple is currently the highest-rated player (1.58) while b1t is the second highest-rated (1.49) at ESL Pro League S15 across four maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

b1t ($8,400) | s1mple ($10,400) | electronic ($7,800) | Perfecto ($6,800) | junior ($5,800) | headtr1ck ($9,400) | floppy ($7,200) 

 

*Top Stacks: Astralis, NAVI, Heroic

*Favorite captain options: k0nfig, b1t, s1mple, stavn, blameF, TeSeS, electronic, Farlig

*Favorite value plays: CeRq, Xyp9x, gla1ve, Perfecto, refrezh, junior, Stewie2K, sjuush