The rivalry in the Sunshine State may not have the same national-title significance as it did in the past, but the matchup between Florida State and Florida is still filled with strong emotions, urgency, and the potential to define the season. As they head into Week 14, both teams have underwhelming records and their fans are looking for any indication that brighter days are on the horizon.

This makes Saturday's game in Gainesville less about rankings and more focused on pride, the chance for bowl eligibility, and — most crucially — who can finally deliver a solid offensive performance. What’s all this mean when making FSU vs. Florida picks?

 

 

 

FSU vs. Florida Predictions for College Football Week 14, Saturday, 11/29

Florida State has a record of 5–6 and needs one more win to qualify for a bowl game, providing head coach Mike Norvell with a positive note after a challenging season. On the other hand, Florida stands at 3–8, caught in a four-game losing streak and facing uncertainty about the program's future. Sadly for both teams, their offenses have struggled to find any rhythm.

Our FSU vs. Florida predictions believe that the safest choice in this matchup is the Under 50.5, and it’s straightforward: both teams' offenses have been slow, erratic, and very untrustworthy throughout the season, particularly against defenses that are even somewhat capable.
 

 

 

FSU vs. Florida Best Bet: Under 50.5 (-104 at Novig)

The Seminoles depend heavily on Tommy Castellanos, whose dual-threat skills provide energy but limit their explosiveness. Castellanos can advance the ball, but Florida State’s passing efficiency drops significantly when he has to throw in clear passing situations. 

His decision-making has been erratic — his two interceptions last week against NC State were detrimental — and his accuracy declines sharply when the Noles play away from Tallahassee. This road inefficiency is a significant Under indicator. 

Some notable offensive numbers for Florida State on the road this season:

  • Scored 11 at NC State
  • Scored 10 at Clemson
  • Scored 13 at Stanford

When Castellanos doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes, Florida State seldom threatens to score 20 points. The running game is decent, but not explosive enough to support a passing game that struggles with separation and timing.

Conversely, Florida’s offensive identity is even more unclear. DJ Lagway shows flashes of talent but hasn’t managed to lead this offense into consistent scoring opportunities. The Gators only managed 11 points last week against Tennessee and haven’t exceeded 24 points in any of their last five games.

The Gators do have a positive aspect in Jadan Baugh, who keeps gaining tough yards, but Florida State’s defensive front remains the team’s strength. Even in defeats, FSU’s front seven has prevented games from spiraling out of control. They limited NC State to 21, Clemson to 17, and Wake Forest to 19. This stability contributes directly to an Under.

Let’s now take a moment to examine the trend: FSU has scored 21 points or fewer in six of its last seven games. Florida has scored 21 points or fewer in five consecutive games.

And now, the total scoring from last week's matchups:

  • FSU: 32 points combined
  • Florida: 42 points combined

Neither team is finding the end zone. Neither team is increasing the pace of play. Neither passing attack is generating big plays. And neither has a quarterback who avoids mistakes.

This rivalry seldom showcases excitement during down years, and the 2025 iterations of these teams certainly fit that description. Both defenses have shown inconsistency but can capitalize on mistakes, while both offenses have been persistently ineffective.

This matchup appears to be a typical 60-minute struggle: punts, stalled drives, long field-goal attempts, quarterback scrambles, and cautious play-calling. A score of 23–20 or 24–17 is much more probable than a high-scoring affair, so says our FSU vs. Florida predictions.

 

 

 

How To Watch FSU vs. Florida College Football Week 14

  • Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
  • Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
  • TV: ESPN2

 

 

 

FSU vs. Florida Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Novig has released the latest FSU vs. Florida odds for the game scheduled for Saturday afternoon. This follows our previous talks regarding our FSU vs. Florida predictions:

  • Money Line (ML): Seminoles -104 | Gators -105
  • Spread: Seminoles +1.5 (-117) | Gators -1.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -104 | U: -111)

 

 

 

FSU vs. Florida Injury Report & Latest News

Florida State Injury Report

  • D. Diggs (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • J. Rawls (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Knight III (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • C. LaVallee (LB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • D. Hiebert (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • C. Loftin (TE) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • S. Singleton Jr. (RB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Leonard IV (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • Q. Jones (CB) – Out, Undisclosed
  • E. Pritchard (LB) – Out, Undisclosed

Florida Injury Report

  • J. Toombs (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • B. Thornton (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • L. McCray (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • R. Kearney (OG) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • D. Johnson (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • T. Jackson (LB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • J. Jackson (RB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • G. Gumbs Jr. (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • A. Gates (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • M. Caraway Jr. (CB) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • M. Boireau (DL) – Questionable, Undisclosed
  • E. Wilson III (WR) – Out, Leg
  • D. Wilson (WR) – Out, Leg

 

 

 

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