The College Football Playoff is finally here, and it’s time to lock in some CFB Best Bets! We have a quartet of first-round CFP games this weekend, starting on Friday night with Alabama vs. Oklahoma. We also have other minor college football bowl games in addition to the Playoff action. Let’s dive into the top CFB picks for Friday and Saturday’s slate of games. 

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Bowl Games & College Football Playoffs

Let’s kick off our CFB Best Bets with a College Football Playoff matchup between Tulane and Ole Miss. Can the Rebels still get it done despite Lane Kiffin bolting for LSU? Our CFP predictions also feature the Miami (FL) vs. Texas A&M showdown on Saturday. Be sure to check out more CFB picks below for the weekend. That includes some intriguing college football player props as well. Good luck!  

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Saturday, December 20th

This is an intriguing Playoff matchup for multiple reasons. First, any conversation has to begin with both teams’ coaching situations. Lane Kiffin has already left Ole Miss for LSU, and he won’t be with the Rebels in the postseason. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding is taking over as head coach. Notably, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will still be with the team in the playoffs before following Kiffin to LSU. 

So, though Kiffin is gone, both coordinators are at least still committed to coaching Ole Miss right now. Meanwhile, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is off to Florida. Yet, he’s still coaching the Green Wave in the postseason. That started in the AAC championship game, when Sumrall led his squad to a conference title after taking the Florida job. 

It’s also worth noting that we already saw this exact matchup earlier this season. Ole Miss served a 45-10 beatdown to Tulane at home back in September. The Rebels will again host this rematch, just like the previous meeting. 

Yes, that game was a while ago, and it was with Kiffin at the helm, but it’s also impossible to ignore how mismatched Tulane looked. The Rebels nearly doubled up the Green Wave in total yards of offense, outgaining them 548 to 282. Plus, Ole Miss led 23-3 at halftime and even held a 45-3 lead in the fourth quarter until Tulane scored a meaningless late touchdown. 

The natural instincts might be to expect Tulane to keep this rematch closer, especially with Ole Miss playing without its head coach. However, the Rebels have key edges on both sides of the ball that should lead to another comfortable victory. 

Ole Miss brings in a potent offense that averaged 37.3 PPG this season (10th in FBS), while gaining 498.1 total yards per contest (2nd). The Rebels also ended the year on a high note, averaging 36.7 PPG over their final six games. The passing attack ranks 6th nationally in total EPA and 9th in success rate. Meanwhile, the run game features a stud workhorse in Kewan Lacy with dual-threat QB Trinidad Chambliss keeping defenses honest. 

It’s hard to see Tulane stopping this high-powered Ole Miss offense enough. The Green Wave defense is a below-average unit, ranking 76th in the country in total defensive EPA and 101st in success rate. They struggled to stop the best offenses in the AAC this year, and Ole Miss presents a much tougher matchup. Plus, in the first meeting, the Rebels scored points on eight of their first nine possessions. 

On the other side, Tulane’s offense is built on a strong passing game. It ranks 17th nationally in passing EPA and 18th in passing success rate. Yet, stopping the pass is what the Ole Miss defense is best at. The Rebels are 12th in the country in defensive success rate vs. the pass, 20th in defensive passing EPA, and 20th in passing yards allowed. The unit struggles against the run, but that’s also a weakness for the Green Wave offense. 

All in all, Ole Miss can score 35-40 points in this game and make it tough on Tulane to match the scoring and offensive pace. It’s also worth factoring in the potential added motivation for the Rebels’ players, who may want to go out and prove something with a big win after their head coach ditched them. 

 

 

 

Miami (FL) vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Saturday, December 20th

Much was made about whether or not Miami (FL) deserved to get into the College Football Playoff bracket, especially compared to Notre Dame. Well, the Hurricanes snuck in, and they’re live to make some noise. It begins this weekend with a first-round matchup on the road at Texas A&M. 

Miami ended the regular season on a high note. The ‘Canes won their final four games by an average of 27.5 PPG. That included a statement 38-7 victory on the road at No. 22 Pittsburgh in the season finale. They’ve been playing their best football of the year and are live underdogs to win outright in this first round. 

Conversely, Texas A&M has been trending down lately. The Aggies lost to Texas, 27-17, in their last game while getting outscored 24-7 in the second half. In its previous conference matchup, A&M needed a miraculous and improbable comeback to survive against a bad South Carolina team. That was at home, too. 

Texas A&M’s defense is statistically strong overall this year. However, there have been issues with some of the tougher offenses it’s faced. The Aggies allowed 40 points and 429 total yards to Notre Dame earlier this season. They also gave up 42 points and 527 yards to Arkansas. Then, in that most-recent game, A&M allowed 397 total yards to Texas in a double-digit loss. 

Those defensive issues could come to the forefront against a dangerous Miami offense. The Hurricanes average 34.1 PPG (20th in FBS) with a passing attack that ranks 5th nationally in success rate and 10th in EPA/Pass. Carson Beck, Malachi Toney, and Co. have the talent to exploit A&M's defense and put up points. 

On the other side, Miami boasts an elite defense itself. The ‘Canes allow just 13.8 PPG (6th in FBS) while ranking 11th in total defense, 16th in defensive EPA/Play, and 17th in defensive success rate. Miami’s strength on defense is against the pass, which is what Texas A&M is best at on offense. It could be an efficient and inconsistent performance for Aggies QB Marcel Reed, who hasn't been playing as well of late. 

Let's take Miami to cover the spread as road underdogs. Consider the outright moneyline as well, but we'll just back the Hurricanes getting points. 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks: Friday, 12/19 and Saturday, 12/20

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