Welcome to Conference Championship weekend in college football! The action gets started on Friday night with four games as we lock in our CFB Best Bets. Let’s focus on two of those matchups for our top CFB picks. Plus, check out more CFB Predictions below.

Note that all bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Plus, as always, keep an eye on any moving odds or lines. The odds below are accurate as of this writing, but are subject to change before kickoff. Without further ado, let’s dive into our CFB Best Bets for Friday's Conference Championship games.

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Friday, 12/5

Let’s kick off Friday’s CFB Best Bets with the American Athletic Conference title game between North Texas and Tulane. Plus, we break down the Mountain West championship as Boise State takes on UNLV. Be sure to check out more CFB picks below for other notable Friday games, including Troy vs. James Madison and Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State. Good luck!  

North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction: Friday, December 5th

The AAC Championship will feature Tulane hosting North Texas. The winner of this game also has a good chance at a College Football Playoff auto bid. Before we get into any X’s and O’s, this matchup deserves some important context. 

Both head coaches have already accepted jobs at other schools for next season. Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is headed to Florida, while North Texas’ Eric Morris will be at Oklahoma State. Both are committed to coaching their current teams in this conference title game and for any potential Playoff appearance. Yet, it still makes it tough to handicap the motivation for Sumrall and/or Morris, as each has one foot out the door. 

If we look for some edge in this coaching situation, it may favor North Texas. Why? Well, Sumrall had his introductory press conference at Florida this past week, creating a bit more distraction than Morris, who has not done so yet at Oklahoma State. Plus, the Gators’ fan base and immediate recruiting expectations put more pressure on Sumrall to get rolling as soon as possible. Morris, meanwhile, takes over a bad Ok State team that’s in a full rebuild. 

As for the game itself, the North Texas offense is one of the best in college football, and its high-scoring pace will be tough for Tulane to keep up. The Mean Green lead the entire country in both points per game (46.8) and total yards per game (511.8). They rank 1st nationally in offensive success rate and EPA/Play as well. 

North Texas has also been rolling lately. Since losing to South Florida in early October, the Mean Green have reeled off 6 straight wins of at least 14 points, with an average win margin of 29 PPG in this stretch. They’ve also scored 50+ points in 5 of the last 6 games. The offense is balanced with both strong passing and rushing attacks. 

This high-powered offense shouldn’t be slowed much by Tulane. The Green Wave rank 101st in the FBS in defensive success rate and 72nd in defensive EPA. They’re also 119th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and 95th in opposing passer rating. That bodes well for the North Texas passing game, led by breakout QB Drew Mestemaker and his stellar 29:4 TD:INT ratio this year. 

Meanwhile, Tulane has a solid offense itself, averaging 28.7 PPG this year. However, its offensive strength is in the passing game while struggling to consistently run the ball. That’s an issue against North Texas. 

The Mean Green defense ranks 10th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, 18th in success rate vs. the pass, and 39th in EPA/Pass defensively. They don’t defend the run well, but Tulane doesn’t have the rushing attack to fully exploit the weakness. 

Let’s take North Texas to get it done. Ultimately, its offense will be the difference-maker while scoring too many points for Tulane to match. It’s also notable that the Mean Green are favored despite this conference championship being played at Tulane’s home stadium. 

 

 

 

UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction: Friday, December 5th

The Mountain West Championship comes down to UNLV and Boise State. This should be an exciting matchup featuring two dangerous offenses. Honestly, a good case can be made for either team to win/cover and for taking both the over and under. So, let’s focus on a couple of player props instead. 

Boise State’s run game gets a great matchup against a poor UNLV rush defense. The Rebels are giving up 5.33 yards per carry this season (132nd in FBS), while ranking 136th in defensive EPA/Rush and 126th in defensive success rate vs. the run. 

Look for Boise State to lean heavily on the run with lead back Dylan Riley, who has 1,016 rushing yards this season. In conference play, he’s averaging 99.3 rushing yards and 16.3 carries per game. The Broncos will also be more inclined to run it with starting QB Maddux Madsen returning from injury after a month-long absence. Maddux’s return will also force UNLV to respect the pass more and thus keep holes open for Riley and the run game. 

Riley ran for a whopping 201 yards on 15 carries against UNLV earlier this season. He could be in line for another big performance with how bad the Rebels have been at defending the run. Riley’s 76.5 rushing yards line is a tad too low when you consider he’s cleared it in 5 of 8 conference games, with 72 in another. The Broncos also use Sire Gaines a decent amount, but Riley is the workhorse more often than not. 

Let’s also target a rushing prop on the UNLV offense. Boise State has a top-tier pass defense, but it’s struggled to stop the run consistently. In conference play, the Broncos are allowing 175.6 rushing yards per game (99th in FBS) and 4.91 yards per carry (109th). They also rank 115th in the country in defensive EPA/Rush. 

UNLV should look to establish the run in this matchup. The Rebels boast a top-20 rushing attack in college football, and they can have success against this shaky Boise State run defense. Their trio of talented running backs can find some holes, but we’re looking at UNLV dual-threat QB Anthony Colandrea. 

Colandrea has shown the willingness and ability to run all season. He has 556 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs on the year, averaging 46.4 rush yards per game. Considering those numbers, his rushing yards line of 27.5 is low this weekend. That’s especially true since he’s run for at least 27 yards in 10 of 12 games. 

As noted above, Boise State has issues against the run. The defense has also struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks this season. Colandrea, in fact, ran for 87 yards on 13 attempts in this matchup earlier in the year. Lately, Boise gave up 89 rush yards and a TD to Utah State’s Bryson Barnes last week, and 2 rush TDs to San Diego State’s Jayden Denegal. 

Earlier this season, check out how some other running QBs fared against the defense. Air Force’s Liam Szarka ran for 119 yards, Eastern Washington’s Jared Taylor put up 76 rushing yards, and Byrum Brown of South Florida had 43 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. It all points to Colandrea using his legs to make plays in this conference title game. 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks for Friday, 12/5

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