The 2025 college football season rolls on with Thursday and Friday games as Week 9 gets underway. Welcome to our CFB Best Bets as we break down CFB picks for this week’s action. Let’s focus on two matchups for our CFB predictions. Plus, check out more college football bets below. 

We’ll kick things off with a Thursday night Sun Belt matchup between South Alabama and Georgia State. Plus, California takes on Virginia Tech in the ACC on Friday night. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. All odds and lines are accurate as of this writing, but subject to change. Without further ado, let’s dive into our CFB Best Bets. 

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Thursday, 10/23

Thursday’s Week 9 slate features just one game as Georgia State hosts South Alabama. The Jaguars are 6.5-point road favorites with a 56.5 over/under in this Sun Belt showdown. Let’s break it down to begin our CFB picks. 

South Alabama vs. Georgia State Prediction: Thursday, October 23rd

We have a pair of 1-6 teams in this Thursday night matchup. South Alabama should probably win this game, but the spread is stay-away territory. Instead, let’s take the over and bank on a higher-scoring game with two struggling defenses. 

Georgia State has arguably the worst defense in college football. The Panthers are allowing 41.1 PPG, which is dead last out of 136 FBS schools. They’re also giving up 450.4 total yards per game (129th), while ranking 130th in defensive EPA and 131st in defensive success rate. 

South Alabama can score in this matchup. The Jaguars should especially dominate on the ground to generate explosive plays. They rank 31st in the country in rushing yards per game and 37th in EPA/Rush. Fifth-year senior Kentrel Bullock is the workhorse, but the offense uses three different running backs in a run-heavy scheme. Georgia State, meanwhile, is 133rd nationally in rush yards allowed per game and EPA/Rush. 

On the other side, South Alabama has its defensive issues as well. The Jags are giving up 30.7 PPG to FBS opponents this year (101st in the country), with 31 or more points allowed in 5 of their last 6 games. The defense has had trouble stopping both the run and pass, ranking 117th in EPA/Run and 100th in EPA/Pass. 

Admittedly, Georgia State’s offense isn’t the best. However, the Panthers can move the ball against this soft defense at home, especially through the air. They’re actually 23rd in the country in passing EPA and 51st in passing yards per game. Plus, junior QB Cameran Brown is coming off his best game of the season, accounting for 400 total yards last week. 

Georgia State may have a bad record and a terrible defense, but there’s still talent on the offensive side. Brown is an athletic dual-threat who transferred from Texas Tech, and lead RB Rashad Amos is a former Ole Miss and South Carolina transfer. Plus, top wideouts Ted Hurst and Javon Robinson have the pass-catching chops to exploit secondaries. 

It’s also worth noting that 5 of Georgia State’s 7 games this year have gone over this current total, including both of the past two games. South Alabama’s games, meanwhile, have featured 55+ combined points in 5 of 7 games as well. 

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Friday, 10/24

Let’s turn our attention to Friday’s slate for our CFB best bets. Virginia Tech hosts California in a matchup of ACC programs. The Hokies are 4.5-point favorites at home with a 50.5 over/under. It's time to dive into more CFB predictions. 

California vs. Virginia Tech Prediction: Friday, October 24th 

California has clearly outperformed Virginia Tech this season. The Golden Bears are 5-2 and 2-1 in ACC play. Meanwhile, the Hokies are 2-5 on the year and 1-2 in conference action. Yet, we have Virginia Tech favored at home ahead of Friday night’s matchup. That’s the direction we’re looking for our CFB picks. 

Virginia Tech has notable rest and travel advantages coming into this game. The Hokies are off their bye week, which came at a good time after losing two in a row beforehand. That week off is also crucial for interim head coach Philip Montgomery to regroup his squad. 

On the flip side, Cal has to travel across the country for this matchup. We’ve seen West Coast teams in the ACC and Big Ten regularly struggle when playing three time zones over in this current age of conference realignment. The Golden Bears now have to do it with their opponent off a bye. Plus, they could be in for a letdown after surviving a close victory over North Carolina at home last week. 

Virginia Tech can control the game with its rushing attack. Against FBS competition, the Hokies are averaging 160.5 rush yards per game (52nd in the country) and 4.77 yards per carry (36th). They also rank 16th nationally in EPA/Rush and 7th in rushing success rate. 

Cal, meanwhile, has struggled to stop the run. The Golden Bears are giving up 4.33 yards per carry against FBS opponents (74th in the country) with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed in those six games (107th). Plus, they rank 88th nationally in defensive EPA/Rush. Virginia Tech’s run game can have success in this matchup to string together productive drives. The Hokies have two talented RBs in Marcellous Hawkins and Terion Stewart, along with dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. 

We’ve also seen Cal’s run defense have issues on the road recently. The unit gave up 178 rushing yards and 8.5 yards per carry at Boston College in its lone other cross-country road trip last month. The Golden Bears also previously allowed 5.1 yards per carry to San Diego State’s top two running backs on the road. 

As for the other side of the game, California’s offense is underwhelming. It ranks 104th in the country in total yards per game and 93rd in scoring offense (23.7 PPG). The Golden Bears’ offense is also 110th nationally in EPA/Play and 107th in success rate. 

The Cal offense has shown flashes at times this year, but it’s also been very inconsistent over the past month. That includes freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who started the year hot but has cooled off since. He has just a 4:6 TD:INT ratio over his past 4 games. 

Virginia Tech’s defense isn’t great by any means, but it has been better against the run. That’ll force Sagapolutele to take on a bigger role than he’s used to and be forced to make more accurate throws in a normally balanced Cal attack. Plus, the freshman will face a Tech defense that should benefit from the extra week of prep and rest. 

 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks for Thursday & Friday, Week 9

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