The 2025 college football season rolls on with Thursday and Friday games to kick off Week 6. Welcome to our CFB Best Bets as we break down CFB picks for this week’s action. Let’s focus on two matchups for our CFB predictions. Plus, check out more college football bets below. 

The Week 6 college football slate starts up on Thursday night with Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State in a C-USA showdown. Plus, San Diego State hosts Colorado State in a Mountain West clash to headline our Friday night CFB picks. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. All odds and lines are accurate as of this writing, but subject to change. Without further ado, let’s dive into our CFB Best Bets. 
 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Thursday, 10/2

Week 6 of the college football season kicks off on Thursday night with a Conference USA matchup. Sam Houston is a small road favorite against New Mexico State with a 52.5 over/under. Let’s get some action on this C-USA game to begin our CFB best bets. 

Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State Prediction: Thursday, October 2nd

Despite being favored on the road, Sam Houston has few notable weaknesses and disadvantages in this matchup. There’s some clear value in backing the home underdog to cover and possibly win outright. Let’s take New Mexico State +2.5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) to cover the spread. 

First off, Sam Houston is 0-4 on the season, with every loss coming by at least 17 points. The Bearkats’ most recent 55-0 blowout loss to Texas is understandable. Yet, they also suffered three-score defeats to Hawaii, UNLV, and Western Kentucky. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is 2-2 and looking to get back on track after losing on the road at Louisiana Tech and New Mexico in the past two games. 

Sam Houston’s bottom-tier pass defense is a big worry here. The Bearkats are allowing 321.8 passing yards per game (135th in FBS) while also ranking 131st in EPA/Pass defensively. They’re giving up a 70.3% completion rate as well, which is 133rd in the country. 

This could be the matchup that awakens New Mexico State’s offense, particularly through the air. QB Logan Fife, a fifth-year senior, has the upside and veteran presence to take advantage of this soft pass defense. The Aggies rank 43rd nationally in passing offense with 262.8 yards per game. 

On the other side, the New Mexico State run defense can be a difference-maker. The Aggies actually rank 5th in the country in EPA/Rush and 37th in opposing rush success. Those are some impressive underlying metrics. It’ll force Sam Houston to the air, which could prove problematic. 

Although New Mexico State has struggled against the pass, Sam Houston doesn’t have a reliable passing game to exploit it. The Bearkats average just 160.3 passing yards per game (120th in FBS), while ranking 133rd in defensive EPA/Pass as well. QB Hunter Watson has underwhelmed this season, and he’s more of a threat with his legs at times. 

Plus, getting New Mexico State as a home underdog has been profitable recently. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS as home dogs over the past three seasons combined. That includes an outright in Week 2 as home dogs to Tulsa. They’re also 13-7 ATS over their past 20 home games now. 

 

 

 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Friday, 10/3

Time now to turn our attention to Friday’s slate for our Week 6 CFB best bets. San Diego State hosts Colorado State in a Mountain West matchup. The Aztecs are 6-point favorites with a 40.5 over/under. Let’s break it down. 

Colorado State at San Diego State Prediction: Friday, October 3rd

The under is very tempting in this game, even with a low total. Points should be at a premium, especially on the Colorado State side. However, there’s a chance that San Diego State scores 30+ points in a comfortable home win. 

So, let’s just focus on one side of the matchup. Take the Colorado State Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-138 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for this Friday night Mountain West clash. The Rams will struggle to move the ball offensively, and eclipsing 17 points on the road seems very unlikely. 

San Diego State’s defense is among the best in the country, allowing 9.8 PPG this season (6th in FBS). The Aztecs also rank 10th nationally in total yards allowed per game (237.3). The defense just held Cal and Northern Illinois to 3 combined points in the past two games as well. 

Meanwhile, Colorado State is averaging only 15.3 PPG this season (131st in FBS). The Rams have yet to score more than 21 points in a game, and they’ve scored 19 total points over the past two contests. Plus, the offense ranks 103rd in the country in total yards per game.

Colorado State’s offense is in a tough spot right now with an uncertain QB situation. The Rams benched starter Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi two weeks ago in favor of Jackson Brousseau. Well, that hasn’t fixed things as CSU was held to only 3 points last game, and Brousseau threw for just 188 yards. 

Now Colorado State’s shaky offense has to go on the road and face a stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs’ pass and rush defenses rank 13th and 21st in the country, respectively. They’re also 8th in the FBS in defensive EPA/Play, and 6th in defensive success rate. Again, this has been an elite unit. 

It’s not ideal for the Rams, who don’t have trustworthy QB play right now. Plus, CSU’s offense prefers to lean on the run game anyway. That’ll clearly be tough to do in this matchup. It could be a long day for the visitors. 

 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks for Friday, Week 6

 

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