Table of Contents
  1. CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For CFP Semifinals
  2. Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks 

The College Football Playoff continues this week with a pair of semifinal matchups. We have Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss on Thursday night, and then Oregon vs. Indiana on Friday. It’s time to lock in our CFB Best Bets before the action gets underway. Let’s jump into the top CFB picks for the Playoff games this week. 

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For CFP Semifinals

To kick off our CFB Best Bets, let’s break down Thursday’s College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup between Miami (FL) and Ole Miss. Plus, we’ll dish out CFB predictions for the Oregon vs. Indiana showdown set for Friday night. Be sure to check out more CFB picks below, including a few player props. Good luck!  

 

 

 

Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Thursday, January 8th

Many expected this semifinal to be Ohio State vs. Georgia. However, both Miami (FL) and Ole Miss pulled off upsets last week, creating an interesting matchup here. It’s the classic debate of offense vs. defense. 

Ole Miss has made it this far largely due to its high-scoring offense. The Rebels average 37.6 PPG (10th in FBS) while gaining 496.2 total yards per contest (2nd). They survived a 39-34 shootout against Georgia in the quarterfinal while needing every bit of Trinidad Chambliss’ playmaking in the fourth quarter. 

As potent as the Rebels’ offense is, though, Miami boasts the elite defense to counter. The Hurricanes rank 10th nationally in total yards allowed per game, 16th in defensive EPA/Play, and 17th in defensive success rate. In particular, they have a dominant D-line with the NFL-caliber edge rushers to get to Chambliss and limit the Ole Miss passing game. 

Chambliss has been electric, and it’s hard to ignore the roll he’s on. However, this will be the toughest defensive line that the Rebels’ quarterback has faced this season. Miami can control the line of scrimmage on that side of the ball and limit the amount of explosive plays that Ole Miss is used to getting. 

On the other side of the ball, meanwhile, the Hurricanes’ run game will be a big factor in stringing together long and successful drives. Ole Miss has struggled to stop the run, ranking 132nd nationally in defensive EPA/Rush and 130th in defensive success rate against the run. That was evident last week when Georgia RB Nate Frazier averaged 5.7 yards per carry before leaving early with an injury. 

Well, Miami has a stud running back of its own to lean on, with Mark Fletcher Jr. coming on strong lately. He put up 172 rushing yards on 17 carries vs. Texas A&M in the first round, and then gained 90 yards on 19 carries against Ohio State. The Hurricanes’ offense is at its best when the rushing attack is rolling, and they can exploit this shaky Ole Miss run defense. 

Besides the X’s and O’s of the matchup, the fluctuating Ole Miss coaching situation may also play a role in this game. You likely heard that head coach Lane Kiffin is already off to LSU. He’s also taking multiple assistants with him, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. Yes, the Rebels have won their last two games without Kiffin, but how much longer can that last? 

This week is also a slightly different situation. Weis is still coaching the offense, but he’s also reportedly been flying back and forth to LSU over the past two weeks to help get the ball rolling and meeting with potential transfer targets. Plus, five other Ole Miss assistant coaches are now officially gone and down with Kiffin in Baton Rouge. The lack of continuity and cohesion in the coaching room could impact the level of prep and focus overall for the Rebels. 

Let’s take Miami to cover the spread en route to a victory. The ‘Canes can ride their top-tier defense while controlling the clock and game with the rushing attack offensively. The Ole Miss run has been fun, but it ends this week as Miami looks like the better national title contender. 

  • Expert Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction: 
    • Miami -2.5 (-140 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction: Friday, January 9th

This CFP semifinal between Big Ten opponents will be a rematch from earlier in the season. Indiana beat Oregon, 30-20, on the road back in October. Both teams have played a lot of football since then, but there are still some key takeaways that could dictate how this week’s game may go. 

Indiana’s elite defense stepped up and held Oregon to just 267 total yards of offense. Quarterback Dante Moore had one of his worst games of the season, throwing for 186 yards with two interceptions while being sacked six times. The Ducks also rushed for only 2.7 yards per carry. 

On the other side, Indiana had its own offensive struggles despite scoring 30 points. Fernando Mendoza had just 215 passing yards, with a touchdown and a pick. Plus, the Hoosiers’ run game was held to 3.0 yards per carry. 

Yes, the game saw 50 combined points scored, but the defenses were key factors in frustrating each other’s potent offensive attacks. In this rematch, we should expect both Indiana and Oregon to set the tone defensively, keeping the game lower-scoring. 

Oregon’s defense just shut out Texas Tech in the quarterfinals, holding the Red Raiders to 215 total yards. The Ducks enter this game ranked 6th in the FBS in both points allowed per game (15.1) and total defense. They’re also 8th nationally in EPA/Play defensively. 

This will be one of the toughest defenses that Indiana has faced this season. In some comparable matchups, the Hoosiers scored just 13 points against Ohio State and 20 points against Iowa. Even other upper-tier defenses like Wisconsin and Penn State held Mendoza and Co. to 31 and 27 points, respectively, which is well below their season average of 41.6 PPG. 

Meanwhile, Indiana’s defense should hold the Ducks in check as well. The Hoosiers are allowing only 10.3 PPG this year (2nd in FBS) while giving up just 252.6 total yards per contest (also 2nd). The unit just held Alabama to 3 points and 193 total yards last outing. Plus, IU’s defense limited Ohio State’s dangerous offense to 10 points in the Big Ten title game. 

Oregon put up big point totals in its softer matchups this year, but the offense struggled against some tough defenses. The Ducks scored just 18, 21, and 26 points when facing Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State, respectively. They also had only 17 points vs. Penn State at the end of regulation, before more came in double overtime. Even last week against Texas Tech, Oregon had just 16 points before adding a touchdown in the final minute. 

Overall, let’s count on a low-scoring battle between these Big Ten opponents. Count on both defenses to limit the damage early and often. Let’s take the under on both the full game and for the first half. 

  • Expert Oregon vs. Indiana Picks: 
    • Under 48.5 Total Points (-128 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
    • 1st Half Under 23.5 Points (-127 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks 

  • Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • D’Zhaun Stribling Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Dakorien Moore Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

 

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