It's finally here! The First Round of the NCAA Tournament tips off today and we have games ALL DAY LONG! Let's dive into some PrizePicks winners for Thursday's slate of games. 

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Noah Horchler (Providence) – OVER 8.5 Points 

Simply put, Providence will need to step it up offensively if it wants to avoid getting upset by South Dakota State today. The Jackrabbits boast one of the most efficient, fast-paced offenses in the country and have the best three-point rate in college basketball. So, naturally, we should look at the Providence players to trend towards the over on their props. Specifically, Horchler’s points seem a touch too low at an 8.5 projection. 

The Friars’ power forward has been hit-or-miss this season whether he scores 10+ points or only makes a bucket or two. In this uptempo matchup where Providence will likely have to shoot (and make) more three-pointers to stay in it, Horchler will be a key part of that. He shot 40% from deep this season and 42.2% during conference play. He’s been a more active scorer in the Friars’ faster-paced matchups like St. John’s, Georgetown, and Marquette. This game falls in that category and will force Horchler to be a threat offensively. 
 

Tyler Burton (Richmond) – OVER 23.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

Richmond is used to playing in lower-scoring, slower-paced games in the Atlantic 10 but will now have a notable pace-boost vs. Iowa’s high-flying attack. If the Spiders want to pull the upset, they’ll need Tyler Burton to play a big role on both ends as both a versatile scorer on offense and an above-average defensive rebounder. Even if Richmond loses, look for Burton to rack up points and rebounds (and maybe a couple assists) to go over his 23.5 PRA projection. The power forward has at least 24 PRA in five straight games and 10 of the last 11. He should keep it going now that he has an uptempo matchup.
 

Teddy Allen (New Mexico State) – UNDER 17.5 Points 

There’s no denying the talent of Teddy Allen, a former Nebraska and West Virginia transfer who just won WAC Player of the Year honors in his first season at New Mexico State. He’s far and away the Aggies’ best player and his top-tier play is a big reason why they’re in the Big Dance in the first place. However, UConn knows all this and it’ll do anything to slow down Allen to avoid getting upset today. The Huskies have the size to bottle up Allen and force other NM St players to beat them. So, expect him to go under his points projection as he’ll likely have to defer at times and will struggle to put up his season-long average of 19.3 PPG. Opposing teams in the WAC tried the same thing during the conference tournament and Allen ended up going under 17.5 points in three of the last five games. 
 

KC Ndefo (Saint Peter’s) – UNDER 6.0 Rebounds

If you’re not familiar with Saint Peter’s, their best overall player is KC Ndefo. The guy had some big performances in the MAAC tournament to help the Peacocks punch their ticket to the Big Dance. However, the competition ramps up quickly as Kentucky presents a much tougher matchup for Ndefo than Monmouth, Quinnipiac or Fairfield did. Specifically, he’ll have to deal with Oscar Tshiebwe in the paint as the two battle for rebounds. Who do we think wins that? Will it be the National Player of the Year candidate who averaged 15.1 rebounds this season at 6-foot-9 and 255 pounds of pure muscle? Or will it be the guy who’s listed at 195 pounds and averaged just 6.2 boards per game this season while playing against easier competition? Though Saint Peter’s has other guys who may be manning the center spot, none of them have the size or skill to deal with Tshiebwe tonight. Ndefo also struggled against power-conference teams earlier this season when he had just four rebounds or fewer against Providence, St. John’s and VCU. 
 

Khalil Shabazz (San Francisco) – OVER 22.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

Unfortunately, San Francisco will be playing without star center Yauhen Massalski tonight as he deals with a knee injury. His absence will inevitably force the Dons’ other top players to take on bigger offensive roles if they want to pull out a win over Murray State. In the last game with Massalski sidelined, Khalil Shabazz stepped up with 27 points and 32 PRA on a whopping 25 shot attempts vs. Gonzaga. He also had 22 points and 28 PRA the game before after Massalski left early with the injury. It’s basically down to Shabazz and Jamaree Bouyea being the usage and shot volume hogs for San Francisco, and the former has been outplaying the latter in recent games. 


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