Another mid-week slate of DFS College Basketball games is here! Tonight’s available slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are a bit different than usual with 15 meaningful games in action.
FanDuel picked 12 of those 15 games for its main slate, tipping at 7 pm ET and rolling right on through the night with the final matchup at 11 pm ET. Meanwhile, DraftKings opted to split their slates into two smaller ones with the first 10-gamer starting at 7 pm ET and then a “late” 5-gamer tipping at 9 pm ET. There’s a bunch of shared games, but also a few specific to DK.
For the purposes of keeping things simple enough for this playbook, we’ll combine each of the slates into one pool of players for today’s breakdown. Because of this, we will forgo the example lineups usually included at the bottom of the playbook. We’ll still outline the top plays tonight, but just keep in mind what lineup-build strategy you should be using depending on the site you’re playing on.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
Memphis @ Tulsa - 8 pm ET (MEM -1 / 155 Implied Total) - DK Only
Villanova @ DePaul - 8 pm ET (NOVA -6 / 144 Implied Total)
St. John’s @ Creighton - 8:30 pm ET (CRE -5 / 165 Implied Total)
UCLA @ Washington State - 10 pm ET (UCLA -6 / 160 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Indiana @ Rutgers - 7 pm ET (IND -2 / 130 Implied Total)
Missouri @ Auburn - 8:30 pm ET (AUB -12 / 140 Implied Total)
SMU @ Wichita State - 9 pm ET (WICH -2 / 138 Implied Total) - DK Only
Guards
Shamorie Ponds - STJN ($10,000 DK / $8,800 FD) - To put it simply, Ponds is the best player in a game with the slate’s highest implied total. We definitely want some exposure to this St. John’s-Creighton matchup - and Ponds represents the safest and surest way to do so. The junior point guard is averaging 40 DK points per game over the last ten and has scored at least 20 real points in six straight. He’s also shooting a ton as his shots share ranks third in the Big East with at least 17 shot attempts in each of the last five outings. Ponds does more than just shoot, though, as his usage, steals rate and fouls drawn are all top 4 marks in the conference. In St. John’s previous matchup with Creighton this year, Ponds put up 37 DK points with 22 real points, five assists, two boards and two steals. It’s definitely tough to pay up for Ponds in cash games, but he is always a viable tournament play because of legit 60 fantasy point upside and a realistic floor of 35 points.
Phil Booth - NOVA ($8,400 DK / $8,400 FD) - Once Big East play began, Villanova’s offense has leaned more heavily on seniors Booth and Eric Paschall. Both are usually very safe cash plays with tournament upside because of the large amount of usage and shots share - and Booth is just that tonight. He’s averaging 37.3 DK points and 21.8 real points over the last 10 games, including 43 fantasy points or more in three of the past five outings. Against DePaul earlier this season, Booth put up 15 points, six assists, four rebounds and two steals - good for 34 DK points. It’s reasonable to assume ‘Nova’s leader can at least duplicate those numbers again tonight in the rematch - making him a cheaper pivot option off Ponds and the more expensive players on the slate.
Jordan Chatman - BC ($5,800 DK / $4,800 FD) - The ideal way for teams to beat the famed Syracuse zone is through made three-pointers. Boston College’s best perimeter shooter lately? Jordan Chatman. The senior has hit 16-of-25 (64%) from deep in the past three games - including at least five made three’s in each outing - which is noticeably better than his season average of two made three’s per game. Although Chatman’s fantasy value is a bit shot-dependant, he should see enough volume tonight - especially from beyond the arc - to return value for cash games and tournaments. Note that Chatman is interestingly $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel - a site notorious for raising prices higher than DK’s listings - making him a nice value source.
Davion Mintz - CRE ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) - Ever since Marcus Zegarowski entered Creighton’s starting rotation as the lead point guard, Mintz has really benefited from a move to the shooting guard role. Mintz has gotten double-digit shot attempts in each of the last three games after having only done so once in the previous 17 outings this season. During that three-game stretch, the junior averaged 30.6 DK points with enough production in points, steals, rebounds and assists to smash value on his cheaper price tags. He gets a slight raise in salary tonight, but he should easily 5x with the increase in shooting volume from a newfound position. Mintz may be the best point-per-dollar play from this St. John’s-Creighton matchup with the highest implied total on the slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
Kris Wilkes - UCLA ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD)
Matisse Thybulle - WASH ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)
Mustapha Heron - STJN ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD)
Frank Howard - SYR ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD)
Marlon Taylor - LSU ($4,400 DK / $5,000 FD)
Forwards
Jordan Murphy - MINN ($9,200 DK / $8,700 FD) - Murphy has been a very polarizing DFS play this season. The senior has had some great games where he smashes value even at an expensive price tag and becomes a tournament-winner. Still he has those nights when he gets into foul trouble and/or scores in single-digits and burns lineups with 20 fantasy points or less - like he did in Minnesota’s previous matchup vs. Illinois earlier this month. So why are we suggesting Murphy tonight after he put up just 14.25 DK points against that same Illinois squad? The home-road splits tell much of the story. Murphy is averaging 43.4 DK points at home while mustering only 25.5 DK points per game on the road this season. Tonight, we get him in the comfort of his home arena where he recently posted 51 and 66 fantasy-point performances in Minnesota’s last two home games. Roster with caution - but Murphy could be a slate-winner tonight.
Paul Reed - DPU ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) & Femi Olujobi - DPU ($6,500 DK / $6,300 FD) - As conference play progresses, DePaul’s offense increasingly runs more and more through their two bigs in the paint. Reed and Olujobi are both in play tonight because of their outstanding production lately - despite a tougher matchup vs. Villanova’s length inside. Over the last four Big East games, Reed is averaging 39.1 DK points, 19.4 real points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks+steals per outing. During the same stretch, Olujobi is putting up 35.4 DK points, 20.2 real points, eight boards and 1.8 blocks+steals per game. Reed is appropriately more expensive on both sites because of his higher shot volume and higher fantasy floor - but both are squarely in play for cash and GPP’s.
Kerry Blackshear - VT ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) - The casual DFS player may take one look at Blackshear’s most recent game and instantly stay away. Against Syracuse on Saturday, the junior put up just 16 DK points with only six points and eight rebounds+assists. It was certainly a far cry from his 50+ fantasy points a game before. Yet, Blackshear gets a much easier matchup tonight as Miami is a poor rebounding team and lacks size outside of Ebuka Izundu - who usually find himself in foul trouble anyways. Blackshear, meanwhile, has a 31.2% combined rebounding rate and has proven capable of monster rebound efforts like his 17 boards vs. North Carolina two games ago.
Martin Krampelj - CRE ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) - On the slates with St. John’s-Creighton on it today, we want exposure to at least 2-3 pieces from this game for most lineup builds. Krampelj becomes a very attractive forward option at an affordable price with consistent play in recent action. He’s averaging 15.2 real points, 30.1 DK points and 8.3 rebounds per game over the last ten outings - all marks notably better than his season-long averages of 11.3 points, 22.9 DK points and 6.4 boards. The 6’9” junior leads both teams in combined rebounding rate (30%) this season and he’ll actually be the tallest of the starters for either team tonight as well. In addition, St. John’s does not rebound on the offensive glass well, while Krampelj is third in the Big East on the defensive boards. This is all adding up for Krampelj to potentially get a double-double for just the third time in the last ten games. We’d be remiss if we didn’t point out his stats from Creighton’s first meeting with St. John’s: 14 points, nine boards, one assist, two blocks and a steal for 32.25 DK points.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Eric Paschall - NOVA ($8,100 DK / $7,900 FD)
Naz Reid - LSU ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD)
Raynere Thornton - MEM ($5,600 DK Only)
Eric Curry - MINN ($4,800 DK / $4,900 FD)