The 2024 NCAA Championship Game is set with a Purdue vs. UConn showdown on Monday night. It’s the two best teams in college basketball going head-to-head with the national title on the line. Does it get better than this? Before you enjoy the game, check out my Purdue vs. UConn prediction and NCAA Championship Game picks for tonight’s game. 




Regarding the current college basketball odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, UConn is a 6.5-point favorite on the spread and -300 on the money line. Purdue is +240 to win on the money line. The over/under is set at 145.5 total points. 

The below Purdue vs. UConn odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing but shop around for the best odds at your preferred sportsbook. Let’s jump into my Purdue vs. UConn prediction and picks for tonight’s 2024 NCAA Championship Game. 

NCAA Championship Game Picks & CBB Title Game Odds Today, 4/8

#1 Purdue vs. #1 UConn Prediction: Huskies -6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Connecticut and Purdue have been the best teams in college basketball all year (sorry, Houston). Now we get the matchup everyone’s been waiting for. The No. 1 seed Huskies vs. the No. 1 seed Boilermakers. Last year’s champs vs. last year’s disappointment. Dan Hurley vs. Matt Painter. Donovan Clingan vs. Zach Edey. Best on best. 

If you’ve watched this NCAA Tournament at all, you know UConn and Purdue have been rolling through almost every opponent in their way. Both teams are 5-0 ATS so far in the bracket with both winning by double-digits in the Final Four. It’s hard to pick against either squad right now, but here we are. 

You can make the real argument that UConn has no business being favored by this many points over Purdue. Most sharp bettors and college basketball prediction systems would make this closer to a pick’em with UConn favored by 2-3 points. With how well Edey is playing, Purdue can easily win this game outright when he’s dominating inside.




Despite that, taking UConn to cover en route to back-to-back national titles is the bet to make here. This is now two straight years that the Huskies have been as close to a “sure thing” as we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament. They’re now 11-0 ATS over the past two brackets, winning all 11 by at least 13 points each and an average margin of victory of 22 PPG. 

As good as Purdue is, UConn is better in almost every area. The Boilermakers are third in offensive efficiency and 13th in effective FG% while the Huskies are first and seventh, respectively (per KenPom). Purdue is 12th in defensive efficiency while UConn boasts the fourth-best defense. 

One area that Purdue does have a slight advantage in is its three-point shooting. It’s making 40.6% from beyond the arc (second-best in college basketball) while UConn is shooting 36%. However, the Huskies make up for that with an elite interior scoring ability anchored by Donovan Clingan and numerous guards who can cut to and finish at the rim. Plus, Alabama just made 11 threes and shot 48% from deep against UConn in the Final Four – and still lost by 14 points. 

Purdue won’t shoot it that much or that well from three. Much of the Boilermakers’ offense runs through Zach Edey down low. He can roll against undersized frontcourts and has been for the past two years. Well, UConn has the 7-foot-2 Clingan to match up with Edey enough to prevent him from taking the game over. It then puts more pressure on Purdue’s guards to step up from an offensive standpoint. 

Defensively, look for UConn’s freshman stud Stephon Castle to take on some of the assignment of guarding Purdue point guard Braden Smith. This could limit the smaller Smith’s effectiveness as a scorer and distributor, which is his best quality. 




The Huskies’ defense overall should keep Purdue in check, especially if Edey isn’t his usual dominant self with Clingan manning the middle. UConn is holding opponents to 31.4% from three this year and should see positive regression in that area after Bama got hot in the Final Four. One area that UConn has a notable advantage in is the turnover department. The Huskies take care of the ball on offense at a top-40 rate in the sport while Purdue’s defensive turnover rate ranks 342nd. 

That’s huge when it comes to trying to break UConn’s offensive rhythm, especially when it plays so efficiently (again, best in the country). If Purdue can’t force turnovers, though, then we could see them be on the wrong end of scoring swings if it goes one-and-done on offense or gets cold from three at times. 

We’re taking UConn to finish the job and cover the spread in this National Championship. Purdue is obviously a good team, but it’s also just the next team in the Huskies’ path right now. Also, bet on the under for Purdue’s team total as the UConn defense should anchor this win. Check out some player props for the game below as well. 




Expert Purdue vs. UConn Picks Today: Monday, April 8