2023 NCAA College Basketball National Championship Best Bets & Picks: San Diego State vs UConn
Before tonight's NCAA Men's National Championship tips off, let's look at some best bets and betting picks for the college basketball finale to the 2023 March Madness bracket. It's San Diego State vs UConn for all the marbles as the NCAA Tournament wraps up on Monday night. Check out National Championship best bets and player props for the matchup and enjoy the game! If you want to play college basketball DFS for tonight's showdown, check out the CBB DFS Playbook for the top picks and values. Now, let's dive into some NCAA National Championship betting picks for Monday night as the Huskies and Aztecs take center stage.
2023 NCAA College Basketball National Championship Best Bets
UConn -7.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
If you acted fast on Saturday night, you could've grabbed UConn as 6-point favorites for this National Championship game. The spread quickly got bet up to its current number of 7.5. Even so, we're still backing a dominant Connecticut squad that continues to roll through opponents with ease. The Huskies have won all five NCAA Tournament games by double-digits so far, winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. UConn is getting it done with an uber-efficient offense that can either score inside with Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson or drain from three-point range with Jordan Hawkins, Alex Karaban, and others.
Meanwhile, the defense is bottling up opposing scorers and holding potent offenses well below their season averages. UConn limited Gonzaga to 54 points in the Elite Eight and then Miami to 59 points in the Final Four. Those are two offenses that regularly scored in the 80s before facing this Huskies defense with tons of length. This combination of elite offense and defense usually allows UConn to go on scoring runs and stretch out big leads – just as it's done throughout the NCAA Tournament.
With that in mind, San Diego State's offense tends to endure lengthy scoring droughts and it could be trailing by double-digits at multiple points vs UConn. The Aztecs were actually down double-digits to FAU last game but made a second-half comeback to eventually pull out the buzzer-beater win. If they get down big to UConn, it'll be tough to overcome a large deficit to a team that's yet to blow any of its big leads in March Madness. The Aztecs play at a slower pace offensively and rarely crack the 70-point mark.
Furthermore, it's worth looking at some betting trends when backing Connecticut here. The Huskies are now 15-1 ATS vs non-conference opponents this season. Not only have they dominated non-Big East teams in the NCAA Tournament, but they also beat multiple early-season foes by double-digits – including Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Oregon. Plus, UConn is now 10-1 ATS over the past 11 games overall. It's winning convincingly on a regular basis and is on a whole other level than the rest of the sport right now. Back the Huskies to cover the spread tonight.
Adama Sanogo, UConn – OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (PrizePicks)
This line is really low for a guy that's averaging 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament. Sanogo has gone over 24.5 PRA in all five March Madness contests and isn't showing any signs of slowing down as UConn's anchor on offense. He just went for 21 points and 10 boards in the Final Four win. Even when he scored just 10 points against Gonzaga, the Huskies' center stepped up with six assists to help clear this line. Yes, San Diego State boasts a strong interior defense and can send multiple bodies at Sanogo to slow him down. Still, the big man is too good and too dominant right now to not get at least 25 PRA again tonight with the National Championship up for grabs.
Lamont Butler, San Diego State – OVER 8.5 Points (PrizePicks)
If San Diego State wants to pull off the upset tonight, it'll likely need Butler to step up offensively. Fresh off his game-winning buzzer-beater in the Final Four, Butler could carry over that confidence and momentum into this title game. The junior combo guard is one of the Aztecs' best sources of scoring in the backcourt and from the perimeter. He could be leaned on more often to keep the offense afloat – especially if Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan are shutting down the interior. Butler scored 18 points in the Elite Eight win over Creighton and has gone over 8.5 points in three of the last four games in the NCAA Tournament.
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