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Duke Blue Devils 

  • Seed & 1st Rd Opponent: No. 2 vs. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton (West Region)
  • Record: 28-6 overall; 16-4 in ACC
  • Rankings: 12th in NET; 12th in KenPom; 11th in BPI
  • Odds: 16/1 to win title; 4/1 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Kentucky, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
  • Notable Losses: Ohio State, Miami FL, Virginia Tech
  • Key Players: Paolo Banchero (freshman center); Wendell Moore (junior wing); AJ Griffin (freshman wing); Mark Williams (sophomore center)
  • Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski (41st season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2019 – Elite Eight loss to Michigan State as No. 1 seed

You may have heard, but this is Coach K’s final season on the sidelines for Duke. The legendary coach is finally hanging it up, and you can bet the Blue Devils’ players and fans alike will want him to go out on top. It’s a realistic possibility with a roster loaded with NBA-caliber talent, headlined by eventual lottery picks Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin. The skill level alone can help Duke beat anyone, like its wins over both Gonzaga and Kentucky on neutral courts back in November. 

Despite all the talent, Duke has some bad vibes heading into the NCAA Tournament. There was the double-digit loss to North Carolina in Coach K’s last home game, tight wins over Syracuse and Miami in the ACC Tournament, and then a 15-point loss to Virginia Tech in the conference title game. The defense has struggled especially in recent games and the offense can get stale without a true alpha playmaker running the attack. This squad will probably be a popular pick to go all the way – but a potential second-round matchup vs. Michigan State or Sweet 16 battle with Texas Tech should make you wary. 

 

Purdue Boilermakers 

  • Projected Seed: No. 3 vs. No. 14 Yale (East Region)
  • Record: 27-7 overall; 14-6 in Big Ten
  • Rankings: 13th in NET; 14th in KenPom; 10th in BPI
  • Odds: 20/1 to win title; +450 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Villanova, Illinois, Iowa (twice), Ohio State, North Carolina
  • Notable Losses: Wisconsin (twice), Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
  • Key Players: Jaden Ivey (sophomore wing); Zach Edey (sophomore center); Trevion Williams (senior center)
  • Head Coach: Matt Painter (17th season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2021 – 1st Round loss to North Texas as No. 4 seed

Who remembers when Purdue busted brackets last year when it lost in the first round? Even though it’s a top team in the country this season, history could repeat itself with an early exit. To be clear, there’s no denying the pure talent on the Boilermakers. Jaden Ivey is a top NBA prospect and might've been the best overall player in the Big Ten this season. Then there’s the imposing frontcourt duo of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams, who present nightly mismatches for opposing teams. That core makes up arguably the best offensive attack in college basketball. 

Purdue’s fatal flaw, though, is its lack of defense. It ranks 100th nationally in defensive efficiency (ninth in Big Ten) and continually struggles to stop anyone in crunch time. The poor defensive effort has cost the Boilermakers a few wins in the past month, including the Big Ten Tournament title vs. Iowa. While Purdue can certainly make a Final Four with its talent, the subpar defense will likely prevent it from going deep into the bracket. A first-round matchup vs. No. 14 seed Yale is a bit tricky right from the start. 

 

Providence Friars

  • Seed & 1st Rd Opponent: No. 4 vs. No. 13 South Dakota State (Midwest Region)
  • Record: 25-5 overall; 14-3 in Big East
  • Rankings: 32nd in NET; 49th in KenPom; 42nd in BPI
  • Odds: 250/1 to win title; 35/1 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Seton Hall
  • Notable Losses: Villanova (twice), Marquette
  • Key Players: Nate Watson (senior center); Jared Bynum (junior point guard); Al Durham (senior wing); AJ Reeves (senior wing)
  • Head Coach: Ed Cooley (11th season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2018 – 1st Round loss to Texas A&M as No. 10 seed

Despite being picked to finish seventh in the Big East preseason rankings, Providence surprised everyone with an outright regular-season conference title this season. Ed Cooley has arguably the best team in program history and it's the Friars' first-ever Big East crown since being an inaugural member in 1979. People may knock them for losing both meetings with Villanova, but the Friars have proven they can beat top teams from other conferences (Wisconsin and Texas Tech). 

The main reason why Providence is on this bust list, though, is because it gets brutal first-round matchup. South Dakota State has a fast-paced, high-scoring offense that will force the Friars to keep up scoring-wise. That was an issue for Cooley's squad in the Big East Tournament semis when Creighton started getting hot – ultimately leading to a 27-point loss. If the No. 13 seed Jackrabbits don't pull it off, then Iowa will present another tough test in the next round. It also doesn't help that the advanced rankings hate Providence, and the No. 4 seed looks a bit misleading. 

 

 

 

Houston Cougars

  • Seed & 1st Rd Opponent: No. 5 vs. No. 12 UAB (South Region)
  • Record: 29-5 overall; 15-3 in AAC
  • Rankings: 3rd in NET; 4th in KenPom; 2nd in BPI
  • Odds: 28/1 to win title; 5/1 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Oregon, Virginia
  • Notable Losses: Alabama, Wisconsin, Memphis
  • Key Players: Kyler Edwards (senior guard); Fabian White (senior center); Jamal Shead (sophomore guard); Taze Moore (senior guard)
  • Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson (8th season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2021 – Final Four loss to Baylor as No. 2 seed

Houston might be one of the more confusing teams in the bracket this year. On the one hand, the Cougars are coming off a Final Four run last season and are currently top 10 in all of the computer rankings and advanced metrics. At the same time, they’re elite-level offensive and defensive efficiencies are bit inflated because of the lack of competition in the American Athletic Conference. Plus, Houston has lost both of its toughest non-conference matchups (Wisconsin & Alabama) and lost to Memphis twice before besting the Tigers in the AAC title game Sunday. 

It is impressive, though, that Houston still pumped out wins and won the conference despite losing its two best players for the season early-on (Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark). This first-round matchup vs. No. 12 seed UAB, however, is a doozy and will force Houston to come ready for a battle. Don't be surprised at an early exit, whether it's against UAB or the Illinois/Chattanooga winner in the Round-of-32. 

 

LSU Tigers 

  • Seed & 1st Rd Opponent: No. 6 vs. No. 11 Iowa State (Midwest Region)
  • Record: 22-11 overall; 9-9 in SEC
  • Rankings: 18th in NET; 19th in KenPom; 16th in BPI
  • Odds: 150/1 to win title; 18/1 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama
  • Notable Losses: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas (three times), Alabama
  • Key Players: Tari Eason (sophomore forward); Xavier Pinson (senior guard); Darius Days (senior forward)
  • Head Coach: Will Wade (fired after 5th season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2021 – 2nd Round loss to Michigan as No. 8 seed

LSU was already a potential bust candidate, but now the team is dealing with a massive distraction heading into the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Will Wade was just fired in the past week due to new NCAA violation allegations. Assistant coach Kevin Nickelberry is taking over interim duties, and you can’t help but wonder how motivated the Tigers’ players will be with this sudden coaching change and dysfunction overall. 

LSU’s best attribute is their elite defense that’s the fifth-most efficient unit in the country, per KenPom. Even though they can limit opposing scoring well, the offense is still a major weakness of its own and a big reason why LSU finished just .500 during SEC play. Not being able to score late in games has cost the Tigers multiple wins against conference competition. This first-round matchup vs. Iowa State is a tough one because the Cyclones also have a top-tier defense that will limit LSU's attack. 

 

Ohio State Buckeyes 

  • Seed & 1st Rd Opponent: No. 7 vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago (South Region)
  • Record: 19-11 overall; 12-8 in Big Ten
  • Rankings: 26th in NET; 32nd in KenPom; 23rd in BPI 
  • Odds: 80/1 to win title; 35/1 to make Final Four
  • Notable Wins: Duke, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
  • Notable Losses: Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan
  • Key Players: EJ Liddell (junior forward); Malaki Branham (freshman guard); Jamari Wheeler (senior guard)
  • Head Coach: Chris Holtmann (5th season)
  • Last Tournament Appearance: 2021 – 1st Round loss to Oral Roberts as No. 2 seed

The Buckeyes are one of a few Big Ten teams that boast a strong offense but also struggle on the defensive end. That makes them vulnerable in the first round and beyond in the NCAA Tournament – especially against a formidable Loyola Chicago team that made a March run a year ago. Ohio State has the 13th-best offensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom, and claims a National Player of the Year candidate in EJ Liddell. 

However, the defense is ranked outside of the top 100 nationally and it’s cost OSU wins against some lower-tier teams in the past month – including an early-exit loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. If opposing teams can slow down or limit Liddell’s scoring talent, the Buckeyes’ supporting cast is hit-or-miss whether it can pick up the slack offensively. Even if they can, the defense is still a big question mark as it pertains to holding leads late in games. To make matters worse, this Ohio State team still has the unfortunate burden of losing in the first round a year ago (shoutout Oral Roberts).

 

Join the 2022 Fantasy Alarm March Madness Bracket Challenge now to win FREE CASH! Make your picks here. 

Looking for more College Basketball content? Check out FREE 2022 March Madness NCAA Tournament previews on Top Mid-Major Teams & and Dark Horses!