Two-Start Pitchers/Streaming Starters: Two For The Money

Another week arrives with a fine slate of top-notch arms populating the upper tier, and a limited selection in the middle group. As per usual, the bottom level is inhabited by SPs best left on the wire or the bench due to their propensity to infect your ratio stats while only offering minimal counting stat production.

Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

It certainly is rewarding to those who drafted him as their SP1 to see Castillo get his mojo back. Gonsolin was worth the wait, as he continues to ramp up his time on the hill, recovering from his shoulder issue. These are the arms you want to have on your roster, so that they can be inserted into your rotation and let you enjoy the results.

Nola leads the middle tier, flirting with residency in the upper tier. He boasts an impressive 118:22 K/BB ratio, but has yielded a minimum of six earned tallies in two of his last three outings for the Phillies, sandwiched around a superb shutout 5.1 IP against the Mets where he limited the opponents to just two hits. Two road games also lead to the middle tier status for the 28-year-old righty. 

Matz was not particularly sharp in his return to action after being COVID sidelined, and like Nola, has two road games on his schedule in Week 15. The first is against the Orioles, though, so that is a positive. He is backed by a strong offense, and will be certain to provide Ks, based on his 9.7 K/9 rate over 72.1 IP this season.

Gray is also away from his home field for both his starts this week, but given that his home park is Coors Field, that is a great thing. He sports a useful 3.89 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his 74.0 IP in 2021. The strikeouts come at a slightly below average rate (7.9 K/9 through his 14 starts), and he keeps the ball in the park with a superb 1.96 GB/FB ratio.

Davies breaks the road trip trend, getting to ply his trade at Wrigley Field for both his trips atop the bump in Week 15. His control is an issue, with a 4.8 BB/9 ratio on the year. Couple that with limited K potential (5.9 K/9 thru 83.1 IP), so it is fortunate for his success to date that he keeps the ball in the park (0.6 HR/9) and generates more groundballs this season than in the past couple of years.

Kim is fresh off of a victory, his first since April 23rd, and he has been working to keep his ERA in the attractive below 4.00 range of late (3.89 ERA through 59.1 IP). His strikeout rate is below average at 7.6 K/9. He also resumes the dual road game trend among the middle tier SPs, and the second game against the host Cubbies might be the better time to plug him into your fantasy rotation, as opposed to his first Week 15 appearance against the Giants.

Perez has settled in to the back of the Red Sox rotation as a stable if unexciting option, and has not pitched into the sixth inning since his first start in June, limiting his value in leagues that count victories or quality starts (QS) as counting stats. As with Kim above, his second time on the hill has better potential for success when the Phillies come to Fenway for the contest.

Cease has a two-game win streak going, and twirled a QS against the visiting Minnesota squad in his most recent appearance. Were he not on the road for both his Week 15 starts, where he has struggled in 2021, he would rank higher among the dual-appearance options available this week.  Neither opponent is daunting, though, which lends a certain degree of allure to his utility this scoring period, especially with his desirable ratio stats: 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Kuhl toils for the last-place Pirates and developed a blister in his last start. The latter comment is of concern since the last time he dealt with a blister his game went into a tailspin. Prior to the blister developing in the latest trip to the mound, the Pittsburgh righthander had collected three QS in four contests, so the value is there if he is healthy.

Both Hill and Arrieta have their two appearances scheduled at home, but given their recent track records, that is not significant enough to recommend using them in Week 15. The balance of these hurlers are best left on the sidelines this scoring period, to preserve your ratio stats, even if some counting numbers could accrue. The overall potential for disaster is too great to risk using them in either of their scheduled trips to toe the rubber.

Potential Streaming Options for Week 

There is no promise that each game day will provide a streaming option. First of all, the pitcher must be available in at least 50% of leagues to be a viable candidate to snag off the wire. Then, the pitchers discussed above are not included as they have a different sort of value, even though some might be available as free agents in your league. Plus, some days the matchups and/or venues just do not figure as positive enough factors to favor plugging the arm into your rotation, even for one start. That all being said, here are this week’s best streaming candidates:

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Dane Dunning TEX vs DET Wily Peralta

Dunning is not a pitcher that goes deep into contests, having just a since start where he pitched six innings (which led to his sole QS on the season), but also does not generally get knocked around too thoroughly, despite his 4.38 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He gets to face the surprisingly adequate Tigers at home, where he has a distinct advantage as evidenced by his home/road splits this season. He should also be good a decent K count against the second worst swing and miss team in the majors.

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Drew Smyly ATL @ PIT J.T. Brubaker

Smyly has held opponents to two or less earned runs over his last five starts, bringing his inflated ERA down to a more appealing 4.42 on the season over his 73.1 IP. Pitching on the road against a last-place opponent, based on his home/road splits, is a point in his favor, too. Recent success and beatable opponent stack up to make his a good streaming option, despite the below average strikeout rate (7.9 K/9).

Merrill Kelly ARI vs COL Antonio Senzatela

Antonio Senzatela COL @ ARI Merrill Kelly

Both sides of this matchup have appeal. Senzatela gets an away start, although his most recent appearance was a 7.0 IP QS at Coors Field against the visiting Cardinals. Kelly’s home/road splits demonstrate his preference for home cooking, and he is working on a three-game QS streak. Unfortunately, neither of these SPs promises anything above average K potential.

Brady Singer KC vs CIN Sonny Gray

Singer has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts, although It should be noted that only one of the four had lasted past the fourth inning. He does have the ability to produce swings and misses (9.6 K/9 in 79.2 IP to date). His production at home has been nearly a run better than when on the road in terms of ERA, so he has that in his plus column.

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Paolo Espino WAS @ SD Yu Darvish

Not the greatest road matchup for the 34-year-old righthanded veteran, but he has responded well when the Nationals have needed him to fill in as a starter over his last two starts. He currently sports a superb 2.02 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, accumulated over 18 appearances (35.2 IP). Not much of a K producer, he does exhibit exceptional control (look at the WHIP for proof of that).

Friday, July 9, 2021

Zach Thompson MIA vs ATL Kyle Muller

Kyle Muller ATL @ MIA Zach Thompson

The second contest this week where both SPs provide an opportunity for streaming usage. Thompson (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP) features eye-popping ratio stats, although Muller is no slouch, either, with a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Keep in mind neither has significant IP to date, so small sample size caution is advised to be in effect. Either or both of these arms could regress significant at any moment, but nothing in their peripheral metrics screams regression…yet. 

Griffin Canning LAA @ SEA Marco Gonzales

Canning was chased from his most recent start against the Red Sox in the third, but his prior three outings were successful, including a QS victory on June 9th at home against the Royals. A start on the road in Seattle does not project as a total positive, although his prior time on the hill at T-Mobile Park he blanked the host Mariners 3 hits and two walks.

Saturday, July 10, 2021

Caleb Smith ARI @ LAD Walker Buehler

Smith offers the potential for great K production, if his erratic control does not force him from the contest early. This is not a great matchup, on the road against the Dodgers, although mid-June he shut them out on a single hit for a QS no-decision. Smith is decidedly the best streaming option at the end of the scoring period.

Feel free also to send any starting pitching or other fantasy baseball questions to ia@fantasyalarm.com for a private response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better the response will be suited to your individual situation. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.