On Saturday night the UFC circus comes rolling into Edmonton for the organizations 215th installment of a Pay Per View event that they have put on. There were some last minute shake-ups with the card, as the headliner between Demetrious Johnson and Ray Borg was cancelled on Thursday night due to an illness that Borg came down with. By default, this bumped up Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko to the main event slot, and ironically, Nunes is the same fighter that 2 months ago Dana White said would never headline a PPV event due to her last minute withdrawal from her first scheduled fight with Schevchenko. Oh how funny things can change overnight.

This is probably the best matched card the UFC has put on this year, and you can tell by where the betting odds have settled. Another interesting tidbit about this card; DraftKings released the salaries for the fighters well in advance of the betting lines being released, and this usually isn’t the case. There has been only one other card (a few months ago) where DK released salaries before odds have come out. This tells me that DK is starting to get comfortable with their MMA algorithms. With that being said, there are 3-4 fighters on the card that have tremendous value when you compare where there betting lines settled at versus where DK has them priced. I make note of these fighters below within my fight by fight preview, and you’ll see most of these fighters sprinkled in my lineups. Good luck, and lets make it rain!! 

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Kajan Johnson

Vs.

Adriano Martins

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

11

Record

28

8

2

1

UFC Record

4

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,200

DK Salary

$9,000

358

Vegas Odds

-465

31%

% Fights to Dec

50%

820

Inside The Distance Prop

-135

 
Snapshot:

The brutality kicks off tonight with the 33 year old Canadian, Kajan Johnson, taking on the 35 year old Brazilian, Adriano Martins. Martins is a well-rounded fighter who has impressive power in his hands, but he tends to lack the offensive output that we often like to see in potentially high-scoring DFS fighters, and this limits his value in my eyes to some degree. To SOME degree I said, and not completely.

When looking for fighters to consider rostering, I always take a hard look at their opponents, and their style of fighting. If we have an opponent who is somewhat weak, is “chinny”, and doesn’t pose much of a threat of KO’ing our possible fighter, than we have to look at this fighter much closer, because his opponent’s traits align nicely with the qualities that our fighter brings to the table. This fight is a great example of that. On his own, Martins is not a very attractive DFS fighter due to his low offensive output, his high percentage of fights that go to a decision, and his overall low ceiling. Martins opponent, Kajan Johnson, makes up for a lot of these faults, as he is a weak fighter who has a questionable chin, and does not pose much threat to finish Martins inside the distance (+820 odds of finishing Martins inside the distance - 23 out of 24 fighters on the card).

These factors make Martins an attractive GPP play for me on Saturday night. I will shy away from him when it comes to Cash games, as he is not a “safe” play in my eyes, although the odds tell you something different. Martins ceiling is pretty high, as I think he has a high likelihood of finishing Johnson in the 1st round  (+225), which is the best odds on the card. You’ll want exposure to Martins in GPP’s, but I wouldn’t have him littered within your Cash LU’s as prominently.

 PICK: Martins, KO, 1st                                                       

Cash Game: Martins (5/10): I like his odds of winning, but I do have some concerns due to his lack of output and consistency.

GPP: Martins (7.5/10): He has a high ceiling here, a high likelihood of winning, and I think he stops him in the 1st half of the fight.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

243

Luis Henrique

Vs.

Arjan Bhullar

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

3

Record

6

0

2

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

163

Vegas Odds

-199

23%

% Fights to Dec

50%

240

Inside The Distance Prop

144

 

Snapshot:

Fight # 2 has former Canadian Freestyle Wrestler, Arjan Bhullar, taking on 4 fight UFC vet, Luis Henrique in an intriguing Heavyweight contest. Arjan is 31 years old as he makes his UFC debut after a successful 6 fight run on the regional circuit, going 6-0 with 3 KO’s and 3 decision victories. His wrestling is obviously stellar, but he also possesses some heavy hands that can put a man to sleep quickly and aggressively. His striking is still very raw, and he doesn’t have the technique to overwhelm Henrique on the feet.

Henrique’s wrestling game is average at best, and his striking game is showcased by wild punches that are telegraphed, and easily avoidable by any defensive minded fighter. A glaring issue for Henrique is his cardio, or shall I say, lack thereof? His game is predicated on throwing some aggressive, wild punches, causing his opponent to back into the cage in a defensive posture. Henrique then will try to find a way to drag his foe to the ground, and grind out an ugly victory. Not the exact type of offensive game that Dana and the UFC like to see from there fighters, but the Heavyweight division is so thin that beggars can’t be choosers, and Dana needs any semi-talented body in the Heavyweight division to show up and fight for his organization.

This is a tough one, as Bhullar is still a pretty big unknown on the MMA circuit, but his wrestling pedigree makes him a promising up-and-comer, and I don’t think the UFC would feed a talented prospect in their thinnest division to a journeyman without much upside. The other unique thing about this fight is that DraftKings posted the salaries for the fighters before Vegas had posted the odds, so we are bound to find some value on this card, and Bhullar is one of those fighters. His Vegas betting odds rank is currently 6th out of the 22 fighters on the card (-199), while his DK salary rank is currently 14th out of 22 with a $7,900 salary (compared to $8,300 for Henrique). This presents a Value Rank Variance of -8, which is very good, and cannot be overlooked from a DK perspective. I’ll have some exposure to Bhullars in GPP’s due to his Rank Value Variance at -8, his wrestling ability racking up some points for us, and Henrique’s poor cardio and overall weakness as a fighter. I like Bhullar in both GPP’s and Cash, but more so in GPP’s.

Here’s the risk with targeting this fight: you have 2 wrestlers who aren’t the most dynamic strikers in the world. You’ve seen these fights in the past where you get two wrestlers who aren’t incredibly experienced or well-versed on the feet, and both fighters retreat to what they know best - wrestling. Unfortunately, wrestling only doesn’t score you a shit-ton of points within DK’s formula. If they get tired, and abandon their striking games, then this could be 2 fighters who cancel each other out, and have a standing hump-fest against the cage. I’m hoping for the former, but wouldn’t be completely shocked with the ladder.

PICK: Bhullar, TKO, 2nd                            

Cash Game: Bhullar (7/10): I like his odds of victory, his value is great, and has a high ceiling.

GPP: Bhullar (8/10): A nice high ceiling, high likelihood of finishing ITD, and one of the Live ‘Dogs on the card I like (“Live Dog” from a DK perspective, although he is currently a 2/1 favorite from Vegas’ perspective - so take advantage).        

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Mitch Clarke

Vs.

Alex White

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

4

Record

11

3

2

4

UFC Record

2

3

2

3

Record Last 5

2

3

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

161

Vegas Odds

-196

33%

% Fights to Dec

29%

319

Inside The Distance Prop

180


 
Snapshot:

Here’s another crazy example of what happens when DraftKings releases salaries prior to Vegas releasing their betting odds. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and DK was assuming that Clarke would be a solid favorite, so they priced him with an $8,800 price tag. Is this DK not doing their homework, or do they know something more than what we know? The betting odds have settled right around -200, and pretty much flipped the salaries on us.

There is some serious value here in White! This is the highest “Rank Value Variance” that I have ever seen! With the betting odds rank at 7th out of 22, and the DraftKings salary rank at 19th out of 22, we are presented with a -12 Rank Value Variance (RVV), which is almost unheard of! We would only see numbers like these if DK produced salaries beware betting odds were released. What does this mean? It means we should definitely take advantage of these values, but so will a lot of other people. White will be highly owned in GPP’s, and Clarke will be incredibly low owned. Opportunity whichever way you want to look at.

In short: I like White here to win on points by using his superior striking, and keeping this fight upright. If Clarke does get a takedown, then White will need to get to his feet ASAP to win this fight.

PICK: White, Dec, Unanimous                              

Cash Game: White (7/10): Crazy value, 2/1 betting favorite, and save some cap space to get the big dogs!

GPP: White: (9/10): The value is so good here that you almost have to roster White automatically! Ceiling isn’t bad, and allows you to get whomever you want in your LU.

                                                           

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Gavin Tucker

Vs.

Rick Glenn

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

0

Record

19

4

1

0

UFC Record

1

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-295

Vegas Odds

236

20%

% Fights to Dec

26%

295

Inside The Distance Prop

500

 

Snapshot:

Here’s another one where DK gave us some value to consider, as Gavin Tucker has settled near a 3 to 1 favorite over Rick Glenn, but his DK salary is only $8,400! With a -295 line, you’d expect him to be closer to $9,000 or a little higher.

This is a very evenly matched fight, and definitely is a candidate for FOTN! Tucker, the undefeated 31 year old Canadian fighter is hoping to keep the momentum going in the Octagon after beating Sam Sicilia in dominating fashion back in February. Tucker is a very effective striker with 8 stoppages of his 10 wins. You may look at his age (31) as being an issue, but he is a young 31 with only 10 fights in his pro MMA career, where many fighters would have 20+ fights under their belt.

This could be a fight that surprises a lot of people, with the winner racking up 110+ points. I like Tucker being that guy. He’s got a solid offensive output, impressive FightIQ, and the striking skills that could quickly put him on a path to contend for the belt in the Featherweight division!

PICK: Tucker, Decision, Unanimous                                

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Tucker (7.5/10): Hi ceiling, impressive offensive skills, high output, and solid FightIQ. Oh, and did I mention the great value based on his betting odds and DK salary?

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Sarah Moras

Vs.

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

4

2

Record

5

2

1

1

UFC Record

2

2

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

205

Vegas Odds

-254

50%

% Fights to Dec

43%

475

Inside The Distance Prop

324

 

Snapshot:

This is an interesting one for me. Initially, I was just going to write this one off as a fight to fade between two mediocre 135 pound female fighters. But as I think about all the factors involved here, I think there may be some value in Evans-Smith. Here’s my reasoning:

  • ES has wrestling advantage over Moras. Moras will get up, but ES will get her back down = big DFS pts!
  • ES is the superior striker, and has an impressive 4.34 SLpM - compared to Moras’ 1.1 SLpM.
  • ES is tough, durable, and can take a punch. Reduces risk of fluky stoppage, and increases her DK points floor.
  • Moras hasn’t fought in over 2 years - Ring Rust is real!
  • Over ES’ last 3 fights, she has averaged 69 significant strikes. Now you mix in 4-5 TD’s, which I think she’ll get against Moras, and you are easily at 45-50 points without any victory points. Not too shabby!
  • Will be very low owned, making her very attractive as a GPP play.

PICK: Evans-Smith, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Evans-Smith (7.5/10): A sneaky play here, but that’s what makes her so appealing. Could throw up a big number with low ownership!

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Henry Cejudo

Vs.

Wilson Reis

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

2

Record

22

7

4

2

UFC Record

6

3

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-344

Vegas Odds

269

58%

% Fights to Dec

55%

400

Inside The Distance Prop

499

 

Snapshot:

Henry Cejudo brings his $9,100 salary into his match against Wilson Reis and his $7,100 salary. Wilson Reis is a very good fighter who likes to use his wrestling to get his opponents to the mat, and eventually submit them with his killer submission grappling game. Reisl also isn’t too shabby on his feet too, but his success in fights depends on whether he can out wrestle his foe or not. When Reis struggles in the wrestling separtment, then he typically loses the fight. There aren’t many guarantees in life (death, taxes, and….), but I will guarantee you this; former Olympic Gold Medal wrestler, Henry Cejudo, will out wrestle Wilson Reis, and dominate the fight from start to finish in a decision victory.

Do I think Cejudo will score though? Not entirely sold on this. In order for Cejudo to score well, he’ll need to get multiple takedowns in each round, land strikes while on the ground, and pressure Reis throughout the fight. If Reis wears down Cejudo, tests his gas tank, and is able to work from top position.

I think Cejudo has his way, but there is risk, as Reis is a well-versed veteran of the sport who’s been locked inside that cage with the best in the world. Anything can happen. There’s also the threat of Cejudo relying on his wrestling too much, and turn it into a positional battle that doesn’t fill the DK box score like we’d need. His $9,100 salary is tough to pay off, so keep that in mind when rostering him. I’ll have some exposure in some GPP’s, but he’s not a top 5 play for me. 

PICK: Cejudo, Decision, Unanimous       

Cash Game: Cejudo (8/10): I like his odds of winning, but his price tag is tough to payoff, and his risk of a snoozer is there.

GPP: Cejudo (7/10): Risky play with his style in a GPP, and his price tag is high for the risk.

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Sara McMann

Vs.

Ketlen Vieira

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

3

Record

8

0

5

3

UFC Record

2

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,900

DK Salary

$7,300

-270

Vegas Odds

216

43%

% Fights to Dec

38%

230

Inside The Distance Prop

675

 

Snapshot:

I’ve seen McMann fight numerous times lives, and she either looks like a world-beater, or she looks like a dumpster fire. It’s the ladder that makes me very nervous about rostering McMann in any format. She has a history of fighting down to the level of lesser opponents. This history scares the shit out of me, and will keep me away from rostering McMann in any format, and I sure as hell don’t want  

PICK: McMann, Snoozefest

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Main Card

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Jeremy Stephens

Vs.

Gilbert Melendez

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

14

Record

22

6

12

13

UFC Record

1

4

2

3

Record Last 5

1

4

$8,200

DK Salary

$8,000

-110

Vegas Odds

-114

41%

% Fights to Dec

54%

402

Inside The Distance Prop

387

 

Snapshot:

The first fight on the main card quite possibly might be the best matchup on the card. The ever-exciting Jeremy Stephens has never been involved in a dull fight, while Gilbert Melendez is making his first trip down to featherweight after 3 straight losses at Lightweight. Ironically, Jeremy Stephens made a similar move from Lightweight to Featherweight after his own 3 fight losing streak at the heavier division. The even weirder part about this little story is that Anthony Pettis started each respective 3-fight losing streaks that started the process of moving down to Featherweight.

Jeremy Stephens has morphed his game over the years, and has become a much more strategic fighter, but without losing his “edge”, and his ability to participate in exciting fights. Stephens has incredibly heavy hands, but Melendez is one of the more crafty, defensive-minded fighters in the lighter weight classes, and it is very difficult to implement your game plan against his well-versed style.

This will be a fun fight to watch, but I don’t think it’s a matchup that will be very appealing from a DK scoring perspective. These guys are too experienced to get caught in a compromising position, and make a mistake that would put upwards of 90 victory points in their respective opponents scoring column. It will be fun to watch, but defense will be prominently on display in this one, and that doesn’t add up to a good situation to score a bunch of DK points, so we’ll be fading this fight. I also think these guys will have a good amount of “squares” on them though, as they are popular fighters that have exciting fight games, but exciting styles don’t always add up to DK points.

PICK: Melendez, Dec, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Ilir Latifi

Vs.

Tyson Pedro

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

5

Record

6

0

5

3

UFC Record

2

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

112

Vegas Odds

-136

29%

% Fights to Dec

0%

175

Inside The Distance Prop

110

 

Snapshot:

Fight #9 is an interesting one that has a lot of eyes on it. I see this one going one of two ways: 1) Pedro catching Latifi on his weak chin and KO’ing the Swede, or (2) both guys are concerned with the other’s power, and it’s a cautious, defensive battle that ends up being a low scoring affair. It could honestly go either way, which makes this a scary fight to invest in, but I guess that’s why they call this gambling……..oh wait, we don’t suppose to call it “gambling”. This is a game of skill, but we are rolling the dice sometimes, and this is a perfect example of this.

Can Latifi step into the pocket, avoid getting caught by a very heavy-handed Pedro, and get this fight to the ground? If so, then I think it’s a low-scoring affair, as both guys are well-versed on the ground, and can effectively defend each other on the ground. If Pedro catches Latifi, then I think this one ends quickly and violently. Pedro needs to keep the distance, use his reach advantage, and turn out Latifi’s lights before the end of the 1st round. This is a tough fight to put all your eggs into one basket, as it could be a very disappointing night once this fight concludes. It’s too risky to invest heavily here, but I will have some exposure to Pedro in GPP’s, as I think the hype is real behind this guy, and he’ll continue to add to his streak of 100+ point events with his 3rd UFC victory in a row.

I like Pedro over Latifi, but there is risk, and you’ll need to be comfortable with this risk before rostering him. Youth, reach, and hype prevail in this one. Not to mention that my algorithm has Pedro as the top DFS scorer on the card, while Latifi is ranked as 7th. This large gap shows me that there is more value from a DFS perspective here with Pedro when comparing the betting odds, and DK salaries. I also love Pedro’s salary of $7,700 and the Rank Value Variance that it presents. Pedro’s betting odds rank is 9th out of 22, while his DK salary rank is 16th out of 22. This presents a Rank Value Variance (RVV) of -7, which typically is great, but with DK releasing pricing before the betting odds this week, it is actually only the 3rd best RVV on the card! 

PICK: Pedro, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Pedro (6/10): Not a huge fan of Pedro in this spot, but with his impressive RVV, and low salary, he’s one I’ll target to help offset the high salaries I’ll be rostering.

GPP: Pedro (8/10): This is a tough one to call, but I have confidence in Pedro and his game. He’ll need to connect early on and put Latifi’s lights out in order to produce up to his hype. I think he can get it done.         

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Neil Magny

Vs.

Rafael Dos Anjos

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

5

Record

26

9

12

4

UFC Record

15

7

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

147

Vegas Odds

-176

46%

% Fights to Dec

54%

560

Inside The Distance Prop

300

 

Snapshot:

This 170 lb scrap is an interesting matchup that has Neil Magny with a 9” reach advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos (RDA), but RDA is incredibly well-versed in every facet of the game. Magny’s length will be best utilized with distance between the fighters where Magny can throw his jabs, front kicks, and arsenal of long strikes. If RDA can get inside Magny’s range without eating a shot that puts him down, then he has a very good shot of pushing Magny up against the cage, and eventually getting this fight to the ground, and grinds out a somewhat ugly win that is emphasized by short punches on the ground, elbows, and positional advantages on the ground.

Magny has not proven to be a KO artist, so I don’t think that this is a viable path to victory for for Magny. His best opportunity to win this fight is to keep the fight at length, use his kicks, jabs, and straights to pepper RDA from the outside, bloody and batter his face, and win a 30-27 victory on the judges scorecards. So what could he score using this path to victory? Minimum - 70. Max - 90. I don’t love the ceiling here, and the risk that comes with it makes me cautious to roster Magny in my “Top Lineups”.

RDA has many more paths to victory than Magny does, and this is why he’s a -176 favorite with an $8,600 salary. RDA’s most likely path to victory? Getting this fight to the cage, and eventually to the ground - taking away Magny’s incredible 9” reach advantage, and making this a war on the ground. Short, heavy punches on the ground, combined with elbows, and a smothering top game, and you’ll find Magny either tapping to a submission in the 2nd or 3rd round, or winning a unanimous decision victory. What’s his DK points potential for both outcomes? 2nd round submission would generate 80 - 110 points, and a UD victory with this style would generate 75 - 90 points. These scenarios are more attractive than what Magny brings to the table, but I will have exposure to both.

PICK: RDA, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: RDA (8.25/10): I like his odds of winning, and his floor and ceiling are higher than Magny’s and his path to victory

GPP: RDA (8/10): Sure, maybe not the same fighter he was 4 years ago, but still a stud worth investing in, and I don’t think Magny will be able to generate the points that RDA will based on their most likely paths to victory.              

                                                           

Fight #:

11

5 Rounds

Weight:

135

Amanda Nunes

Vs.

Valentina Shevchenko

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

4

Record

14

2

7

1

UFC Record

3

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

101

Vegas Odds

-125

11%

% Fights to Dec

31%

180

Inside The Distance Prop

174

 

Snapshot: 

The main event on the card has been changed due to the cancellation of the Johnson/Borg fight. So now the fighter that Dana White said would never headline a PPV card ever again (Amanda Nunes) will now be headlining a PPV card only a few months removed from those statements being made.

This is a very close matchup, and could go either way. I’m  big fan of Nunes, as she has some of the best striking, specifically boxing, that I have ever seen in a women’s fight! Nunes has some serious momentum behind her, and the confidence that she brings into this fight may be enough to lead her to victory. Her hands are quick and heavy. She’s big, fast, and strong. She has the confidence to overcome adversity, and deliver damage that no other women can inflict in the world (save Cyborg).

Keep in mind, this is a 5 round fight, so we are getting 2 free rounds to score points if it does get into the 4th and 5th rounds. This is important, because I think Nunes will out point Shevchenko over the course of the 5 rounds, and her offensive output will almost double up on what Shevchenko will deliver. Nunes currently has a 4.69 SLpM, which is one of the better ratios on the card, while Shevchenko has a 2.48 SLpM ratio.

This is another close fight to call, and the UFC has done a great job handicapping this card, but I am going to put my hat in the Nunes camp, and she will be one of my higher owned fighters on the card. I think her momentum, recent performances, and typical fighting style will all be big factors in determining how many points she’ll generate. I think her floor is around 80, and her ceiling will be around 110 pts. I’m not one of those “touts” who waffles between the two camps, and then hops on Twitter and says “I told you so!”. I’m clearly putting my allegiance with Nunes. Deal with it! I will have a small amount of exposure on Shevchenko as well, but the majority will be on Nunes.

PICK: Nunes, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Nunes (9/10): I like her odds, I like the salary, I like the 5 rounds, I like the momentum! What else could you want?

GPP: Nunes (7.5/10): Not a high enough ceiling for me to increase this ranking above a 7.5, but I like her salary, and I think her style will prove to score 100+ pts. 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Amanda Nunes

$8,100

2

Alex White      

$7,400

3

Arjan Bhullar

$7,900

4

Adriano Martins

$9,000

5

Gavin Tucker

$8,400

6

Henry Cejudo

$9,100

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Amanda Nunes

$8,100

2

Ashley Evans-Smith

$8,700

3

Arjan Bhullar

$7,900

4

Gavin Tucker

$8,400

5

Adriano Martins

$9,000

6

Alex White

$7,400

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Alex White      

$7,400

2

Tyson Pedro

$7,700

3

RDA

$8,600

4

Ashley Evans-Smith

$8,700

5

Bhullar

$7,900

6

Henry Cejudo

$9,100

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Amanda Nunes

$8,100

2

Alex White      

$7,400

3

Tyson Pedro

$7,700

4

Adriano Martins

$9,000

5

Gavin Tucker

$8,400

6

Henry Cejudo

$9,100