Fight Island rolls on with a Wednesday card. The UFC is going to wring all they can from their international talent pool these two weeks. This card is a bit of a step child to that. Nevertheless, we play on. This is the kind of low variance card where you can pick the right dog and be immediately in the running for a takedown.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Calvin Kattar vs Dan Ige9100/7100-Stackability: Moderate-290/ +260-135/+500
I love this matchmaking. Both fighters are just outside the title conversation. Kattar is one of the UFCs best pure boxers and Ige’s boxing has come a long way. The big question is, can Ige come from behind yet again? Kattar isn’t a fast starter but he’ll be picking Ige off in the early going. That’s a problem. As Ige has to push to try and take back rounds he’s at risk of being KO’d. This won’t be a barnburner but both have a respectable pace for a cash stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jack Shore9400Aaron PhillipsSafe-720-180
Shore is an excellent import for the UFC. His no-nonsense grappling attack will carry him through the lower ranks. Phillips has some name value as a late replacement but that’s about it. We saw in Shore’s last fight why he merits inclusion at any price against bottom level competition.
Abdul Razak Alhassan9200Mounir LazzezSomewhat-Safe-315-225
Alhassan looks to get his MMA career back on track after (possibly unfounded) sexual assault charges he was cleared of. Prior to that he was the scariest man in the division. Insane power backed by hand speed and precision timing left opponents oft in a heap. Unless he’s completely washed a first round KO is coming against the fairly stiff Lazzez here.
Khamzat Chimaev8900John PhillipsSomewhat-Safe-370-190
The easiest way to beat John Phillips is to attempt a single takedown and submit him when he becomes a beached marine mammal. Chimaev has ferocious wrestling, so this is an odd bit of matchmaking. The UFC maybe saw an opportunity to get a win-win here with Chimaev debuting and scratching another fight off Phillips contract. It’s some concern that we’ve seen little of Chimaev and against no real competition but barring a first minute KO Chimaev should cruise.
Modestas Bukauskas9000Andreas MichailidisSomewhat-Risky-158+120
Bukauskas certainly looks the part, I’ll give him that. He has decent credentials, as well, being a Cage Warriors champ. I just feel underwhelmed by his striking. Michailidis will be a willing dance partner and he comes to swing. That could be trouble or it could bring out the best in Buk.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ricardo Ramos8800Lerone MurphyModerate-157+290
I would love to see Ramos fall back on some BJJ here. Murphy's raw in the sense that he hasn't fought anyone on his way up. Get a hold of his neck and find out what he knows about mat time. Ramos also has some tricky striking that he likes a little too much at times. It also makes him live for the KO.
Tim Elliott8500Ryan BenoitModerate-140+290
We finally got the Tim Elliott gameplan we were hoping for last fight, just not the cardio. He gassed hard and rolled over in the second. Benoit is a perfect opponent to use the spam grapple plan on again. Can Elliott save enough gas to go deeper this time? You kind of have no choice but to use him and find out. If he does he hits 125-150 DK points.
Diana Belbita8600Liana JojuaModerate-195+240
Belbita is trendy to be chalky, which makes sense, but also doesn't since she's maybe not any good. She threw volume at McCann in her debut loss. Jojua also looked pretty gunshy in hers. It could be a dangerous conclusion to jump to that Belbita cruises here, however. Not at very high ownership.
Jimmie Rivera8400Cody StamannModerate-130+560
We're going to find out if Rivera has been merely suffering from being outmatched by the division elite or truly on his way out. The Jimmy Rivera pre-Moraes KO would beat Stamann. It's going to be interesting seeing how much of that guy is left.
Jared Gordon8300Chris FishgoldSomewhat-Risky-145+235
Gordon’s best days are behind him. The miles are starting to show for a fighter who has to outwork opponents to win. Fishgold is a bad matchup to test that against. If Gordon can survive the early onslaught he should absolutely be able to put a pace on Fishgold via the grappling and score well.
Taila Santos8000Molly McCannSomewhat-Risky+130+465
It’s hard to gauge Santos abilities. She gassed after a close, but failed submission attempt in the early part of round 1 in her debut. That led to a decision loss. I’m trying to focus in some of the positives from that fight. She took back control and was close. She showed a nice leg kick. Despite being a deer in headlights she rallied some in the third. McCann will bring the same bully style Borella beat her with but McCann is not the athlete Borella is. If Santos is too fast/too sharp it could be a long night for Meatball Molly.
Molly McCann8200Taila SantosSomewhat-Risky-140+600
McCann could also bully the clearly inexperience Santos for three grueling rounds. The pace McCann puts up is a product of not having any defense.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Cody Stamann7800Jimmie RiveraModerate+120+490
As far as dogs with a shot to win, Stamann may be your best bet. He's well-rounded and always in top shape. Beating Rivera to the punch is a challenge. Rivera hasn't had much confidence of late, losing to the divisions best.
Andreas Michailidis7200Modestas BukauskasSomewhat-Risky+148+244
When we're hunting for dogs we want to look for power. Knocking out the fighter that's better than you is the surest way to neutralize any skill discrepnacy. Michailidis comes to bang and he knows what he's about.
Chris Fishgold7900Jared GordonSomewhat-Risky+135+175
Fishgold is the epitome of a DK gamble. He comes out with his hair on fire, mixing strikes and grappling, with no regard for defense or endurance. Gordon’s taken a ton of damage in his career and he’s going to have a hard time standing up to that. As the fight goes on Fishgold becomes a risk, however.
Lerone Murphy7400Ricardo RamosRisky+147+330
We need more information about who Muphy is as a fighter. Folks give him credit for taking Tuhkagov to a draw but I fault him for giving up a 10-8 round. He's always in great shape and can cause some problems for Ramos. Especially if the Brazilian gets flashy.
Liana Jojua7600Diana BelbitaRisky+180+500
Jojua would have to fluke her way into a win. That said, this is low, low level women's MMA. An armbar from bottom is not unheard of.
Ryan Benoit7700Tim ElliottRisky+130+280
A play on Benoit is a bet that Eliot will gas again. You can’t hold Benoit down easily and if you’re too tired to get him down it’s trouble standing with someone that has some power in their hands.
John Phillips7300Khamzat ChimaevRisky+310+480
Phillips treats MMA as one big bar fight. He has the power to stop anyone but none of the game to get it there. He's not interested in defending takedowns, largely to his own detriment. If he lands you feel it, though.
Mounir Lazzez7000Abdul Razak AlhassanRisky+285+365
There's some chance Alhassan no-shows and isn't the fighter we remember. It's a small one, IMO, but exists.
     


Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Katar -305, Alhassan -330

Favorite Props: Michailidis ITD +280

Long Shot: Santos ITD +465

Live Dogs: Ige, Michailidis, Stamann, Santos, Fishgold, Benoit

 

Stats & Picks

   
Calvin KattarvsDan Ige
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 21-4-0RecordRecord: 14-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-290Vegas Odds+260
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tim ElliottvsRyan Benoit
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 16-11-1RecordRecord: 10-6-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-140Vegas Odds+130
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Jimmie RiveravsCody Stamann
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 22-4-0RecordRecord: 19-2-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-130Vegas Odds+120
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Molly McCannvsTaila Santos
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 15-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-140Vegas Odds+130
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Abdul Razak AlhassanvsMounir Lazzez
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 10-1-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-315Vegas Odds+285
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
John PhillipsvsKhamzat Chimaev
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 6-0-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+310Vegas Odds-370
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Ricardo RamosvsLerone Murphy
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 14-2-0RecordRecord: 8-0-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-157Vegas Odds+147
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Modestas BukauskasvsAndreas Michailidis
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 12-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-158Vegas Odds+148
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jared GordonvsChris Fishgold
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 15-4-0RecordRecord: 18-3-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-145Vegas Odds+135
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Diana BelbitavsLiana Jojua
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 13-5-0RecordRecord: 7-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-195Vegas Odds+180
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jack ShorevsAaron Phillips
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 12-0-0RecordRecord: 12-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-720Vegas Odds+580
8/10Lineup Pool1/10