We’ve arrived at Fight Island. That means international travel for all of our fighters. Keep that in mind, as well as the time differences. We’re also back up to the 30’ Octagon so finishes will be at a slightly lower rate. If you’re in a cash game expect 90+% of lineups to use a Holloway/Volkanovski stack. Get away from Holloway, Masvidal, and Aldo as best you can in GPP builds to differentiate.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -230/ +210 | +215/+280 |
| We get the perfect main event savior in Street Jesus after Gilbert Burns dropped out with COVID. We’ll find out how far Usman’s striking has truly come against the very smooth Masvidal. Jorge can also stuff takedown fairly well so the wrestle-heavy approach is not necessarily a clear path to a win for Usman. At the end of the day I side with Usman’s output both grappling and striking to take a decision. It’s the smart money. Masvidal is absolutely live for a knockout in any fight, though. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 9100 | Max Holloway | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +360 |
| It’s telling that Volk wanted the Holloway rematch right away. I’d expect that he felt he was pretty close to stopping Max and wants to be the first to KO him. That could be playing with fire but Volk shut Max down pretty thoroughly behind leg kicks and pressure striking. It’s hard to see the rematch playing out that differently. | |||||
| Petr Yan | 9300 | Jose Aldo | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | +130 |
| Yan figures to be too much for Aldo at this point in his career. Yan is super fast and thumps when he dials in his range. Aldo plays a range control game nowadays and that’s not enough to beat Yan, barring a knockout. That style does slow the pace which pours some water on this fight for DK. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 9500 | Paige VanZant | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -105 |
| The tape and fight skills all point to Ribas cruising here. I don’t doubt that she’s likely to win. My concern is that it’s hard to finish PVZ and there may not be enough stats in a decision to hit her price as the most expensive fighter. | |||||
| Rose Namajunas | 9000 | Jessica Andrade | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | +170 |
| We get the return of Rose against the woman who sent her into hiatus in the first place. That’s kind of scary for Rose backers. What head space will she be in? If Rose is able to shore up some of her takedown defense her striking will pick Andrade apart. It’s a big ask at the price, however. | |||||
| Karol Rosa | 9200 | Vanessa Melo | Risky | -250 | +394 |
| It’s a very risky thing to expect Rosa to land the volume she did in her UFC debut. Add in the risk that a sloppy fight going to decision is totally up in the air. The price is largely driven by Melo being pretty mediocre herself. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 8400 | Jiri Prochazka | Moderate | -145 | +150 |
| I’m big on Oezdemir here. He’s the much better technical fighter and can match Jiri’s power. I don’t trust the debuting fighter to be able to hang in this firefight. It’s a play with some risk but the reward merits Oezdemir’s inclusion in lineups. | |||||
| Leonardo Santos | 8800 | Roman Bogatov | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +150 |
| Santos gets an opponent tailor-made for his most dangerous skills. Bogatov runs head-first at opponents to grapple. That leaves enormous openings for counterstrikes and chokes, both of which Santos has shown are firmly in his wheelhouse. | |||||
| Raulian Paiva | 8700 | Zhalgas Zhamagulov | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +335 |
| Paiva should be able to lean on his length and power to foil Zhamagulov’s spam striking. A decision win isn’t going to get it done at $8700 but there’s a slight chance Paiva can carry enough power to win by knockout. | |||||
| Martin Day | 8500 | Davey Grant | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +210 |
| I’m higher on Day than most this week. He should win the exchanges on the feet and he’s shown he knows how to grab a choke when opponents grapple with him. That’s a major liability of Grant’s who wrestles his way into submission losses. The leverage on Day is a big part of my backing him. | |||||
| Maxim Grishin | 8100 | Maxim Grishin | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +195 |
| Playing Grishin would be a bet that Tybura can’t take a heavyweight punch after a few recent knockouts. Maxim isn’t the most lethal kickboxer but he has finishes on his record. | |||||
| Makwan Amirkhani | 8600 | Danny Henry | Somewhat-Risky | -192 | +125 |
| Amirkhani merits inclusion in your GPP pools because of his first round win or gas style. Henry is going to be in trouble in the early going. If he sees the second round that danger shifts to Makwan, though. | |||||
| Muslim Salikhov | 8200 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Risky | -135 | +155 |
| Salikhov has some of the nastiest counter shot power in MMA. If Zaleski brings his typical aggression he’s immediately in the danger zone to be knocked out. | |||||
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 8000 | Muslim Salikhov | Risky | +125 | +150 |
| The most obvious path to victory for Zaleski is testing Salikhov’s grappling. We’ve seen that be an issue for him before. The issue is Zaleski, while a willing grappler, isn’t particularly good at it. He’s opportunistic and certainly has capable BJJ. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Max Holloway | 7100 | Alexander Volkanovski | Moderate | +190 | +555 |
| Despite having a very tough fight ahead of him Max will be the most popular dog, if not the most popular fighter. His insane striking output gives him a floor few can match. That’s great for a cash game stack. It may not be enough in GPPs, though. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 7200 | Rose Namajunas | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +500 |
| The wrestling Andrade is likely to land makes her a nice cash game option. She has plenty of upside in GPPs, as well. The risk is another early KO loss for her, however. | |||||
| Jiri Prochazka | 7800 | Volkan Oezdemir | Risky | +135 | +270 |
| Power, speed, and a willingness to engage at any cost are Prochazka’s calling cards. We’re going to find out in a hurry whether his hype is built on subpar competition or if he’s ready to make a splash in the UFC. I’m skeptical but will have shares all the same. | |||||
| Roman Bogatov | 7400 | Leonardo Santos | Risky | +155 | +650 |
| In some cases the answer to dangerous BJJ grapplers is smothering wrestling. Bogatov comes hellbent on doing that. If Santos age (40) or conditioning fails him he will be in trouble. That makes Bogatov very high risk/reward. | |||||
| Danny Henry | 7600 | Makwan Amirkhani | Risky | +177 | +390 |
| The low ownership on Henry has piqued my interest. Makwan winning by sub in the first is a realistic possibility. If that doesn’t happen, Henry’s grit and conditioning should allow him to blast away at Amirkhani until he crumples. It’s worth a gamble in select builds. | |||||
| Jose Aldo | 6900 | Petr Yan | Risky | +195 | +340 |
| Aldo would likely need a KO to win the fight. That plays at $6900 but Yan has looked every bit the future champion we expect. Aldo may also be slightly higher owned than he should be given the price and name recognition. | |||||
| Marcin Tybura | 7900 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | -110 | +385 |
| Tybura probably spams grappling control on his way to a boring decision. Grishin coming up from light heavyweight likely means Tybura can outmuscle him. There’s the slightest chance Tybura can land a head kick KO if Grishin gets sloppy. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 7700 | Martin Day | Risky | +150 | +655 |
| Maybe Grant’s luck will change and he won’t shoot himself in the foot. The fight figures to feature some grappling point with the winner benefiting the most. | |||||
| Vanessa Melo | 7000 | Karol Rosa | Risky | +230 | +725 |
| Melo is another leverage play. She’s probably not the better fighter. In a back and forth brawl between two tough Brazilians she has a chance to take a decision. If it plays out at the pace most expect any win puts her onto the winning lineups. | |||||
| Paige VanZant | 6700 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | +600 | +114 |
| PVZ is on the last fight of her UFC contract. Murphy’s law dictates that she’s going to spoil the UFCs new darling Ribas path to a title shot. Ribas is also getting the curse of the 8 to 1 favorite. That’s a lot of ju-ju leaning her way. It’s a shame PVZ is much worse technically. She’d need a very flukey spinning strike to win by KO. Her ownership will be super low. | |||||
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Best Bets
Favorite Bets: Volkanovski -225, Andrade +180, Oezdemir -145,
Favorite Props: Usman via DEC +165, Henry ITD +365
Long Shot: Day via SUB +620
Live Dogs: Andrade, Holloway, Masvidal, Prochazka, Zaleski, Henry, Melo
Stats & Picks
| Kamaru Usman | vs | Jorge Masvidal |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | Record: 35-13-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | vs | Max Holloway |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 21-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
| Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (52%) | |
| Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Petr Yan | vs | Jose Aldo |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 28-6-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jessica Andrade | vs | Rose Namajunas |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 20-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Amanda Ribas | vs | Paige VanZant |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -750 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Jiri Prochazka |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 26-3-1 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | vs | Muslim Salikhov |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
| Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (64%) | |
| Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | vs | Danny Henry |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (7%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
| -192 | Vegas Odds | +177 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Leonardo Santos | vs | Roman Bogatov |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 17-4-1 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (53%) |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Marcin Tybura | vs | Maxim Grishin |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 30-7-2 |
| 1 KO/TKO (10%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (39%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Raulian Paiva | vs | Zhalgas Zhamagulov |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Karol Rosa | vs | Vanessa Melo |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Martin Day | vs | Davey Grant |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |