The UFC is playing one of it’s favorite tricks by following up a lackluster card with an absolute banger. This card is stacked with good fights. It’s close to PPV quality. There are no safe favorites after Blaydes. Feel free to leave salary on the table in a week that makes tight builds a challenge.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -410/ +365 | -185/+500 |
We hopefully learn a lot about Blaydes in this matchup. His striking should be tested at some point. I don’t see the finish coming for Blaydes as early as most people do. He’s not a risk taker and Volkov has a decent guard with all his length. At some point he will make a mistake and Blaydes will slip a crushing elbow past him. The fight will end soon after. If that’s in the later rounds it should make a viable stack in cash. There’s more risk than usual since it’s a HW bout, however. Either way, Blaydes path to 100+ DK points is pretty clear. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Roosevelt Roberts | 9200 | Jim Miller | Safe | -230 | +135 |
Roberts is making a quick turnaround after disposing of Brok Weaver in easy fashion. He’ll face another gritty opponent in Miller. One with better technical skills, albeit with about 7 minutes of gas in the tank. Miller is durable but Roberts poses too many threats once you tire. I’ll take Roberts via late stoppage. | |||||
Bobby Green | 9100 | Clay Guida | Moderate | -245 | +165 |
We’re not used to seeing Green anywhere near this price. It’s more about how hittable Guida is. He’s tough and durable but Bobby is just a much, much better boxer. Guida makes things ugly and Green has lost his share of close decisions, though. We’d need a 100+ strikes out of him in a war to come close to value. | |||||
Brianna Van Buren | 9000 | Tecia Torres | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | +575 |
BvB is a bull. She marches forward with pressure and takes her opponent down often. Why we’re getting her at $9K is a lack of fights (1 in the UFC) and that Torres is hard to wrangle with excellent speed and solid grappling. Torres is on a bad losing streak, though. You have to wonder if she’s settled into the stepping stone role. | |||||
Belal Muhammad | 8900 | Lyman Good | Risky | -120 | +453 |
If Muhammad can avoid getting KO’d in the first round his grinding style and takedowns should allow him to dominate a tired Good. He can be hit, however. People are counting his lack of finishes against him here. Belal’s live for the late sub, though. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Gillian Robertson | 8300 | Cortney Casey | Somewhat-Safe | -110 | +280 |
Despite a reputation for sometimes quitting when she’s outmatched I’m pretty confident in Robertson here. She’ll only quit if things aren’t going her way. Grappling is her bread and butter and Casey gets out-grappled almost every fight. Casey also came up from the 115 lb division so the strength edge should go to Robertson. Her potential to rack up grappling points or sub Casey early makes her a nice value in my eyes. | |||||
Frank Camacho | 8000 | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | +105 | +245 |
Frank the Crank gets a late replacement that will oblige his desire to stand and bang. That’s a dangerous game but Camacho’s chin is one of the toughest around. His power looks more effective at 155, as well. I’d expect this to be a standup war with Camacho having the edge in all departments, especially cardio with a full camp. | |||||
Max Rohskopf | 8400 | Austin Hubbard | Moderate | -195 | +125 |
Rohskopf is a rare late replacement favorite. That’s because despite a limited skill set, it’s a very well honed and dangerous skill set. He’s an all-american wrestler who’s taken to jiu-jitsu like a fish to water. Years of building balance and strength into his muscle memory is paying off. The main liability is how much cardio he may have on four days notice. Maybe that makes an early sub even more likely. At worst I think he duplicates Mark Madsen’s performance against Hubbard with plenty of action followed by a bad third round. | |||||
Oskar Piechota | 8600 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +200 |
The biggest issue for Piechota on his 2-3 UFC run has been that he possesses one round of cardio. He swings hard before gassing, which can pay off against low level strikers. He also has a legit black-belt. There have been spots where he set up a submission well, then just couldn’t find the finish. Barriault can be taken down so the early sub is also live. The odds are against it, though. | |||||
Shane Burgos | 8700 | Josh Emmett | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +170 |
I’m lower than most on Burgos due to his complete lack of any desire to avoid getting hit. He’s all about a brawl. It makes for exciting fights but a bad style to back. If Emmett can’t knock him out, or knock him down in two rounds, he will win a decision on volume. | |||||
Justin Jaynes | 6900 | Frank Camacho | Risky | +285 | +205 |
Jaynes is here to go to war with Camacho, and he likely will. There’s always the chance he finds a home for a fight stopping shot in a mad scramble. (I put Jaynes in this section since his opponent is so low priced on the other side) | |||||
Roxanne Modafferi | 8500 | Lauren Murphy | Risky | +100 | +440 |
Roxi has made a career of surprising upsets. She’s the favorite here, however. That makes it a hard price to swallow. She has the willingness to push the pace. Murphy is going to have a strength advantage that will make it hard for Roxi to use her grappling, as well. | |||||
Raquel Pennington | 8800 | Marion Reneau | Risky | -175 | +480 |
The best days are behind Pennington. In her prime she bullies Reneau. After all the mileage she’s a bit shell-shocked. There’s less grit in her game now. It’s a toss up fight. Reneau has made some big mistakes in the ring but also makes up for them with athleticism. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Josh Emmett | 7500 | Shane Burgos | Moderate | +140 | +220 |
Emmett throws hard with seemingly every punch. He’s knocked down almost every opponent. Burgos fight’s with his hands down. You see where this is going. He’ll be popular at the price. It’s for good reason. He also has good wrestling in his back pocket which Burgos struggles with. | |||||
Lyman Good | 7300 | Belal Muhammad | Moderate | +110 | +250 |
Good’s path to victory is pretty straight forward. He throws single punch power and needs to catch Muhammad early. If not, he’s likely to gas and be in some trouble. | |||||
Marc-Andre Barriault | 7600 | Oskar Piechota | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +180 |
The tough Canadian needs to make it into the second round where Piechota tends to gas. From there a KO via exhaustion is well within his reach. He has to stay off his back unlike his last fight, though. | |||||
Marion Reneau | 7400 | Raquel Pennington | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +475 |
Reneau likely needs a finish or a fight changing moment to win. She has the talent to do it. Her execution has been the challenge after coming to MMA late in life. It’s an attractive price at low ownership if you’re building multiple lineups. | |||||
Jim Miller | 7000 | Roosevelt Roberts | Risky | +210 | +425 |
Miller’s M.O. of first round sub or bust has often held true. That’s unlikely to change in the twilight of his career. Does the old dog have one more trick in him? | |||||
Austin Hubbard | 7800 | Max Rohskopf | Risky | +180 | +345 |
There’s a non-zero chance Hubbard is just too big of a step up for Rohskopf. Especially on short notice. It’s not much of a chance, but it’s not entirely impossible. | |||||
Lauren Murphy | 7700 | Roxanne Modafferi | Risky | -110 | +600 |
Murphy seems like the exact opposite of what Modafferi needs in an opponent. She’s strong, tough, and willing to push the pace if her opponent does. Roxi is tough to finish, however. | |||||
Cortney Casey | 7900 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | +100 | +245 |
Casey could shock me here. I won’t count that out. It would take some takedown defense that she has yet to show though. And it’s not like $7900 is an easy price to pay off. Robertson does get the quitter tag from some. |
How To Build Lineups Using Multi-Entry Tool
Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvAPUgvlaFHJOG8ydqQw0c2Ph0oF8K88/edit#gid=856897918
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Best Bets
Favorite Bets: Robertson -120 (2 units), Rohskopf -185 (2.5 units), Van Buren -225 (1 unit)
Favorite Props: Emmett ITD +234 (2 units), Barriault/Piechota UNDER 2.5 rounds -135 (1.5 units)
Long Shot: Muhammad ITD +460 (0.5 Units)
Live Dogs: Emmett, Barriault, Murphy, Good, Miller, Reneau, Casey
Stats & Picks
Curtis Blaydes | vs | Alexander Volkov |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 31-7-0 |
10 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 20 KO/TKO (65%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +360 |
9/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Josh Emmett | vs | Shane Burgos |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Raquel Pennington | vs | Marion Reneau |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 10-9-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-1 |
1 KO/TKO (10%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Belal Muhammad | vs | Lyman Good |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 (1 NC) |
4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (52%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jim Miller | vs | Roosevelt Roberts |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 31-14-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
4 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
17 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
+215 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Clay Guida | vs | Bobby Green |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 35-16-0 | Record | Record: 24-10-1 |
7 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (33%) |
13 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
+210 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Tecia Torres | vs | Brianna Van Buren |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Oskar Piechota |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-1 |
8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Cortney Casey | vs | Gillian Robertson |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 9-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Frank Camacho | vs | Justin Jaynes |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 22-8-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
17 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Roxanne Modafferi | vs | Lauren Murphy |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 24-17-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
4 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (67%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (21%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Austin Hubbard | vs | Max Rohskopf |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (100%) |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |