The UFC is playing one of it’s favorite tricks by following up a lackluster card with an absolute banger. This card is stacked with good fights. It’s close to PPV quality. There are no safe favorites after Blaydes. Feel free to leave salary on the table in a week that makes tight builds a challenge.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov9400/6800-Stackability: Moderate-410/ +365-185/+500
We hopefully learn a lot about Blaydes in this matchup. His striking should be tested at some point. I don’t see the finish coming for Blaydes as early as most people do. He’s not a risk taker and Volkov has a decent guard with all his length. At some point he will make a mistake and Blaydes will slip a crushing elbow past him. The fight will end soon after. If that’s in the later rounds it should make a viable stack in cash. There’s more risk than usual since it’s a HW bout, however. Either way, Blaydes path to 100+ DK points is pretty clear.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Roosevelt Roberts9200Jim MillerSafe-230+135
Roberts is making a quick turnaround after disposing of Brok Weaver in easy fashion. He’ll face another gritty opponent in Miller. One with better technical skills, albeit with about 7 minutes of gas in the tank. Miller is durable but Roberts poses too many threats once you tire. I’ll take Roberts via late stoppage.
Bobby Green9100Clay GuidaModerate-245+165
We’re not used to seeing Green anywhere near this price. It’s more about how hittable Guida is. He’s tough and durable but Bobby is just a much, much better boxer. Guida makes things ugly and Green has lost his share of close decisions, though. We’d need a 100+ strikes out of him in a war to come close to value.
Brianna Van Buren9000Tecia TorresSomewhat-Risky-200+575
BvB is a bull. She marches forward with pressure and takes her opponent down often. Why we’re getting her at $9K is a lack of fights (1 in the UFC) and that Torres is hard to wrangle with excellent speed and solid grappling. Torres is on a bad losing streak, though. You have to wonder if she’s settled into the stepping stone role.
Belal Muhammad8900Lyman GoodRisky-120+453
If Muhammad can avoid getting KO’d in the first round his grinding style and takedowns should allow him to dominate a tired Good. He can be hit, however. People are counting his lack of finishes against him here. Belal’s live for the late sub, though.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Gillian Robertson8300Cortney CaseySomewhat-Safe-110+280
Despite a reputation for sometimes quitting when she’s outmatched I’m pretty confident in Robertson here. She’ll only quit if things aren’t going her way. Grappling is her bread and butter and Casey gets out-grappled almost every fight. Casey also came up from the 115 lb division so the strength edge should go to Robertson. Her potential to rack up grappling points or sub Casey early makes her a nice value in my eyes.
Frank Camacho8000#N/ASomewhat-Safe+105+245
Frank the Crank gets a late replacement that will oblige his desire to stand and bang. That’s a dangerous game but Camacho’s chin is one of the toughest around. His power looks more effective at 155, as well. I’d expect this to be a standup war with Camacho having the edge in all departments, especially cardio with a full camp.
Max Rohskopf8400Austin HubbardModerate-195+125
Rohskopf is a rare late replacement favorite. That’s because despite a limited skill set, it’s a very well honed and dangerous skill set. He’s an all-american wrestler who’s taken to jiu-jitsu like a fish to water. Years of building balance and strength into his muscle memory is paying off. The main liability is how much cardio he may have on four days notice. Maybe that makes an early sub even more likely. At worst I think he duplicates Mark Madsen’s performance against Hubbard with plenty of action followed by a bad third round.
Oskar Piechota8600Marc-Andre BarriaultSomewhat-Risky+105+200
The biggest issue for Piechota on his 2-3 UFC run has been that he possesses one round of cardio. He swings hard before gassing, which can pay off against low level strikers. He also has a legit black-belt. There have been spots where he set up a submission well, then just couldn’t find the finish. Barriault can be taken down so the early sub is also live. The odds are against it, though.
Shane Burgos8700Josh EmmettSomewhat-Risky-150+170
I’m lower than most on Burgos due to his complete lack of any desire to avoid getting hit. He’s all about a brawl. It makes for exciting fights but a bad style to back. If Emmett can’t knock him out, or knock him down in two rounds, he will win a decision on volume.
Justin Jaynes6900Frank CamachoRisky+285+205
Jaynes is here to go to war with Camacho, and he likely will. There’s always the chance he finds a home for a fight stopping shot in a mad scramble. (I put Jaynes in this section since his opponent is so low priced on the other side)
Roxanne Modafferi8500Lauren MurphyRisky+100+440
Roxi has made a career of surprising upsets. She’s the favorite here, however. That makes it a hard price to swallow. She has the willingness to push the pace. Murphy is going to have a strength advantage that will make it hard for Roxi to use her grappling, as well.
Raquel Pennington8800Marion ReneauRisky-175+480
The best days are behind Pennington. In her prime she bullies Reneau. After all the mileage she’s a bit shell-shocked. There’s less grit in her game now. It’s a toss up fight. Reneau has made some big mistakes in the ring but also makes up for them with athleticism.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Josh Emmett7500Shane BurgosModerate+140+220
Emmett throws hard with seemingly every punch. He’s knocked down almost every opponent. Burgos fight’s with his hands down. You see where this is going. He’ll be popular at the price. It’s for good reason. He also has good wrestling in his back pocket which Burgos struggles with.
Lyman Good7300Belal MuhammadModerate+110+250
Good’s path to victory is pretty straight forward. He throws single punch power and needs to catch Muhammad early. If not, he’s likely to gas and be in some trouble.
Marc-Andre Barriault7600Oskar PiechotaSomewhat-Risky-115+180
The tough Canadian needs to make it into the second round where Piechota tends to gas. From there a KO via exhaustion is well within his reach. He has to stay off his back unlike his last fight, though.
Marion Reneau7400Raquel PenningtonSomewhat-Risky+165+475
Reneau likely needs a finish or a fight changing moment to win. She has the talent to do it. Her execution has been the challenge after coming to MMA late in life. It’s an attractive price at low ownership if you’re building multiple lineups.
Jim Miller7000Roosevelt RobertsRisky+210+425
Miller’s M.O. of first round sub or bust has often held true. That’s unlikely to change in the twilight of his career. Does the old dog have one more trick in him?
Austin Hubbard7800Max RohskopfRisky+180+345
There’s a non-zero chance Hubbard is just too big of a step up for Rohskopf. Especially on short notice. It’s not much of a chance, but it’s not entirely impossible.
Lauren Murphy7700Roxanne ModafferiRisky-110+600
Murphy seems like the exact opposite of what Modafferi needs in an opponent. She’s strong, tough, and willing to push the pace if her opponent does. Roxi is tough to finish, however.
Cortney Casey7900Gillian RobertsonRisky+100+245
Casey could shock me here. I won’t count that out. It would take some takedown defense that she has yet to show though. And it’s not like $7900 is an easy price to pay off. Robertson does get the quitter tag from some.

 


How To Build Lineups Using Multi-Entry Tool

 

Cash Plays 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

 

Vegas Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Robertson -120 (2 units), Rohskopf -185 (2.5 units), Van Buren -225 (1 unit)

Favorite Props: Emmett ITD +234 (2 units), Barriault/Piechota UNDER 2.5 rounds -135 (1.5 units)

Long Shot: Muhammad ITD +460 (0.5 Units)

Live Dogs: Emmett, Barriault, Murphy, Good, Miller, Reneau, Casey

 

Stats & Picks

 

   
Curtis BlaydesvsAlexander Volkov
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 31-7-0
10 KO/TKO (77%)Knockouts20 KO/TKO (65%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (10%)
-450Vegas Odds+360
9/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Josh EmmettvsShane Burgos
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 15-2-0RecordRecord: 13-1-0
6 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+130Vegas Odds-140
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Raquel PenningtonvsMarion Reneau
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 10-9-0RecordRecord: 9-5-1
1 KO/TKO (10%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (56%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Belal MuhammadvsLyman Good
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 16-3-0RecordRecord: 21-5-0 (1 NC)
4 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts11 KO/TKO (52%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (14%)
-115Vegas Odds+105
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jim MillervsRoosevelt Roberts
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 31-14-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 10-1-0
4 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (30%)
17 SUBMISSIONS (55%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+215Vegas Odds-235
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Clay GuidavsBobby Green
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 35-16-0RecordRecord: 24-10-1
7 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (33%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (37%)Subs9 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+210Vegas Odds-250
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Tecia TorresvsBrianna Van Buren
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 10-5-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (22%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+185Vegas Odds-225
1/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Marc-Andre BarriaultvsOskar Piechota
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 11-3-1
8 KO/TKO (73%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
-110Vegas Odds-110
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Cortney CaseyvsGillian Robertson
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 9-7-0RecordRecord: 7-4-0
3 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (14%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (71%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Frank CamachovsJustin Jaynes
$8,000DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 22-8-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
17 KO/TKO (77%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (47%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (9%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
+105Vegas Odds+280
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Roxanne ModafferivsLauren Murphy
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 24-17-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
4 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (67%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (21%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-115Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Austin HubbardvsMax Rohskopf
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
4 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (100%)
+160Vegas Odds-185
2/10Lineup Pool7/10