The UFC comes to main stream TV for only the third time with the UFC on ABC 2. They didn’t book a great main event but it could get bailed out by Kevin Holland as a late replacement. The rest of the card is long but some good fights are mixed in. Dogs will hit with this many fights. You’re going to have to thread the needle of picking the right dogs with the high scoring favorites. The good news is that there are plenty of viable options for both.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland | 9600/6600 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -350/ 290 | 120/350 |
| It’s Holland to the rescue yet again. The UFC can say what they want, when they need a high profile late replacement Holland gets the bat signal. Unfortunately, he’s facing a very similar challenge to the one he just failed against Derek Brunson. Vettori is slightly less focussed on wrestling than Brunson but has a much better chin. That takes away Holland’s main path to victory of a KO. Everyone bleeds, though. It will be fun seeing if Holland can get the hot-headed Vettori to fight emotionally and maybe find the upset. Moderately stackable given that neither guy is an easy finish, though I do have some concern on Holland losing by sub. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9200 | Scott Holtzman | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | +260 |
| Gamrot’s debut loss is an interesting thing. It was his first loss and a close fight at that. Plus he was supposed to fight Magomed Mustafeav but ended up with late replacement Guram Kutateladze. Most people would be ducking both of those fights. Gamrot is the genuine article and a projectable wrestler. Holtzman is another name that’s not a lay up but Gamrot and his team know where they want him to be in the UFC pecking order. | |||||
| Impa Kasanganay | 9500 | Sasha Palatnikov | Moderate | -275 | +240 |
| Last we saw Impa, he was on the wrong end of the knockout of the year via a Joaqin Buckley spin kick. It was an incredible feat of timing and athleticism and doesn’t worry me much going forward. Palatnikov is a raw but dangerous striker. I’d like to see Impa use his physical advantage and grapple some but no guarantees. We’re going to find out a lot about both fighters here. | |||||
| Yorgan De Castro | 9400 | Jarjis Danho | Moderate | -310 | -182 |
| Yorgan looks to get back to crushing another of the HW division’s many cans. I worry that he’s a two trick pony though. He wants to use a nice leg kick to force opponents into mistakes. If that doesn’t pay off early he’s had nothing in the gas tank beyond the first and didn’t look to be in any better shape at weigh-ins. It’s a HW yolo spot if there ever was one. | |||||
| Joe Solecki | 9100 | Jim Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -240 | +220 |
| Solecki’s best tool has been his BJJ in the UFC. That’s going to be hard to deploy against Jim Miller. You generally have to out-hustle and grind out a win against Miller. Solecki can do that as the younger man but we haven’t seen those tools, yet. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Shore | 8700 | Hunter Azure | Moderate | -170 | +205 |
| The undefeated Welschman takes a step up here. Azure isn’t a terribly frightening opponent but a solid striker with a wrestling background. Shore won’t easily bully him. Or maybe he will and we’ll know we’ve got a potential contender. His wrestle-first approach is very DK friendly and ITD finishes are always nice. | |||||
| Sodiq Yusuff | 8500 | Arnold Allen | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +300 |
| We haven’t seen Sodiq for a bit. Prior to his layoff he ran through the division’s gatekeepers. With each step the results were a little less spectacular, however. Allen is a legit prospect but hasn’t faced as difficult competition. Especially not a striker as dangerous as Yusuff. You could argue this is actually a step down from Yusuff’s last opponent in Andre Fili. He doesn’t grapple much, though. He needs a KO in the first two rounds to hit value. | |||||
| Daniel Rodriguez | 8800 | Mike Perry | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +195 |
| DRod has been a wildcard in every UFC fight. He’s been hurt, bullied, pulled off smooth submissions, and thrown ridiculous volume at different points. Perry is equally unpredictable. We never know where he’s at with training, focus, and extra curricular issues. If a similar version of Perry from his last fights shows up DRod should be able to out-work him with little trouble. | |||||
| Julian Marquez | 9000 | Sam Alvey | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +130 |
| A third round sub of Maki Pitolo, or near decision loss to put it another way, did little to convince me Marques isn’t in over his head. Winning by flashy head kick on DWCS was a curse in disguise. He’s 2-1 in the UFC but needed sub’s in both wins that could have otherwise been losses. Alvey is a manageable opponent but tends to usually be in close fights. Plus he’s got a mule kick for a left hook and southpaws are always dangerous. | |||||
| Nina Nunes | 8300 | Mackenzie Dern | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +315 |
| Nunes (formerly Ansaroff) is returning from time away to have a baby. She looks to be in great shape and trains with Amanda Nunes on the regular. She’s positioned better than anyone to return at her best. She’ll need to avoid laying in Dern’s guard but I’ve got the feeling she and Amanda trained some BJJ for this one. Nina should be favored IMO. She has the inside track on a decision and Dern is often trying to get KO’d. | |||||
| Da-Un Jung | 8400 | William Knight | Risky | -130 | +160 |
| Jung fell flat getting gifted a draw against Alvey. We’ll see if he can get back on track against Knight, a lower level but tough generalist. Jung’s sort of a similar version of that, just a bit better. He did have a run of finishes leading into the UFC so there’s some hope for a decent score. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jim Miller | 7100 | Joe Solecki | Somewhat-Risky | 200 | +320 |
| Quick review, “When do we back Jim Miller? As a dog against a young opponent drill sergeant.” Miller may even be the better striker in this one if he can find the gas in the tank to win the second. | |||||
| Mackenzie Dern | 7900 | Nina Nunes | Somewhat-Risky | 120 | +275 |
| Dern’s main path is always her world class BJJ. Lower level fighters tend to get sloppy against her and caught in subs. Nunes is usually a sharp fighter so that’s not a given here. If she can’t pull off a sub she resorts to sloppy brawling. | |||||
| Jarjis Danho | 6800 | Yorgan De Castro | Risky | 255 | +475 |
| Heavyweights be heavyweights. Fights can end with a single punch, and often do. That also tends to happen early as the big fellas aren't distance runners. | |||||
| Sasha Palatnikov | 6700 | Impa Kasanganay | Risky | 235 | +500 |
| We’re still wondering who Palatnikov is. He worn down and finished Louis Cosce as an underdog in his debut. Someone must have seen something in him to sign him to a UFC contract with little experience. I don’t think he should be this big of a dog but Impa is going to hold a very big edge in the strength department. | |||||
| Mike Perry | 7400 | Daniel Rodriguez | Risky | 120 | +285 |
| Perry’s such a problem to handicap because of his natural talent. He’s a good boxer with a nose for grappling despite only some training. Once he hit his career ceiling things went off the rails for him. Apparently, he is training in an actual gym at the moment and may even have a real corner. Can only help, right? Maybe he catches DRod on the button or even puts in a surprise round of ground and pound. It’s a close fight, as most are with Perry. | |||||
| Sam Alvey | 7200 | Julian Marquez | Risky | 155 | +350 |
| Alvey’s game plan hasn’t changed: wait on his opponent to make a mistake where he can crush home a left hand. It makes for close fights with an occasional finish. He may not be the one to expose Marques but that’s coming and I want a shot at it. | |||||
| Arnold Allen | 7700 | Sodiq Yusuff | Risky | 135 | +350 |
| I’m including Allen solely on his status as a prospect. Even in wins he doesn’t score all that highly. He’s well-rounded and battle tested. There’s a chance he’s the better man in this tilt. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mateusz Gamrot | $9,200 |
| Marvin Vettori | $9,600 | |
Mid Tier | Jack Shore | $8,700 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Jim Miller | $7,100 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mateusz Gamrot | $20 |
| Marvin Vettori | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Jack Shore | $18 |
| Nina Nunes (Ansaroff) | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Jim Miller | $9 |
Favorite Bets: Shore -170, Miller +200, Jung -130
Favorite Props: Yusuff ITD +300, Makdessi/Bahamondes GTD -150
Live Dogs: Miller, Holland, Perry, Dern, Makdessi, Danho, Allen, Alvey, Palatnikov, Knight
Stats & Picks:
| Marvin Vettori | vs | Kevin Holland |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 16-4-1 | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) |
| -350 | Vegas Odds | 290 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Arnold Allen | vs | Sodiq Yusuff |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| 135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Sam Alvey | vs | Julian Marquez |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 33-14-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 19 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (75%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| 155 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Nina Nunes | vs | Mackenzie Dern |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Mike Perry | vs | Daniel Rodriguez |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (79%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
| 120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Jim Miller | vs | Joe Solecki |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 32-15-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (10%) | |
| Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) | |
| 200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Scott Holtzman | vs | Mateusz Gamrot |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 (1 NC) |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) | |
| Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | |
| 200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| John Makdessi | vs | Ignacio Bahamondes |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| 165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Yorgan De Castro | vs | Jarjis Danho |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-1 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO/TKO (83%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | 255 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Hunter Azure | vs | Jack Shore |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
| Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) | |
| Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | |
| 150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Luis Saldana | vs | Jordan Griffin |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (28%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | 115 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Da-Un Jung | vs | William Knight |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 13-2-1 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (77%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Impa Kasanganay | vs | Sasha Palatnikov |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | 235 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |