When to target speed? This is one of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball each and every year. No one should go into a roto draft with the plan of tanking the steals category, as this can almost assure you of not capturing first place. The problem with a lot of the speed guys, as you may already know, is that they offer very little in just about every other category outside of stolen bases. Add to that the fact that speed is becoming harder and harder to find, and it adds even more difficulty. The 2018 season was the first year since 2012 that no player stole over 50 bases (Trout had 49 in 2012), and only the second such year since 2002... and then it happened once again in 2019, as the league-leader finished with 46. So how does one go about picking up stolen bases for fantasy? There are a few ways to go about targeting speed, and they can all work.
A Balanced Approach
This is the most ideal way to go about getting your stolen base category locked up without hurting yourself in the other categories. This does not mean you have to use a first round pick on Trea Turner , but rather if you can fill your first couple picks with guys who do it all (including steal bases), you will really be putting your team on the right track. In a perfect world you get a top three pick and secure Mike Trout , Ronald Acuna, or Christian Yelich . Of course, that probably won’t be the case for most people. Looking at players who currently have an ADP lower than 10th overall; Trevor Story , Starling Marte , Austin Meadows , Ketel Marte , and Whit Merrifield are a few examples of early picks that will help you across the board of categories while providing you with some solid-to-strong stolen base numbers. If you are able to land these type of players, you can then use later round picks on players that will give you 10-to-20 steals (or more) without killing you in other categories (like a Mallex Smith will). Oscar Mercado , Amed Rosario , Elvis Andrus , Tommy Edman , and Christian Walker are a few guys worth looking at (with current ADP’s below 100), if your draft unfolds this way. This style of drafting gives you a very balanced team. You may not have any of the 40+ stolen base guys, but the combined production from your team as a whole will provide enough stolen bases to keep you competitive in the category.
Target Speed Early
This route means taking Ronald Acuna or Trea Turner with your first round pick, or taking Jonathan Villar or Adalberto Mondesi with your third pick. Acuna (37 steals) and Turner (35 steals) were in the top-10 finishers of stolen bases last season. The good thing about these guys is that they are good-to-great in all other categories as well and you can still take the balanced approach with them; the problem with these guys is that you need the right pick in the draft to land them. As for Villar (40 steals) and Mondesi (43 steals) they are easier to get, since you can land them from any draft slot, but they hurt you in other areas. Villar was actually pretty strong across the board last season, but keep in mind that he played in all 162 games and also gets a major home ballpark downgrade with his shift from the Orioles to the Marlins. It’s also worth noting that his previous two seasons were far worse than his 2019 season, as he failed to reach 15 home runs, 50 RBI, or hit above .260 in either of them. As for Mondesi, he only hit nine home runs last season while hitting .263 with 62 RBI and 58 runs scored. He only played in 102 games, but none of those numbers are very exciting outside of the 43 steals. Everyone knows Acuna and Turner are strong picks, so there isn’t much to breakdown with them. As for Villar and Mondesi, they may not bash out 25 home runs this year, but they provide enough production across the board that this strategy can be a good one. While the “Balanced Approach” is one that leads to being competitive in the steals category, targeting speed early can be an approach with the plan of winning the steals category.
Target Speed Late
This strategy comes into play when your first couple picks are low steal total guys. Maybe you started your draft with an ace like Jacob deGrom and followed that pick up with a slugger (guys like Aaron Judge , Pete Alonso , and Yordan Alvarez ) and either another pitcher or another slugger. This is a great start to your draft in every category except stolen bases. When taking this route, you will need to be able to find speed later in the draft to be competitive in the category. This style of draft leads to guys like Mallex Smith and Delino DeShields coming into play. Neither of those two players managed to reach the seven home run mark and they were awful in all other categories (outside of steals). If playing in a roto league and your draft unfolds like this, you may have to take one of these guys and try to make it work, as you do not want to punt a category. However, if playing in a head-to-head league, you are better off just punting the steals category and turning your focus to really locking down the other categories.
Conclusion
Three ways to target speed have been laid out, but which is the best? That depends on preference and also the flow of how your draft goes. Personally, I prefer the balanced approach or the target speed early approach. Owning players who are one category contributors (one-trick ponies) can be frustrating and detrimental to your team, making the targeting speed late approach one I would try to avoid. You draft a one-trick pony to try and solve a steals problem, but then you are hurting yourself in other categories that you felt good about. In today’s MLB game the home run ball is easier to come by than stolen bases are, making targeting speed crucial to a successful team. It is unlikely to find many good stolen base category contributors on the waivers, making targeting them in the draft essential. All three approaches can work and you probably already know which approach you use most commonly.
Mock Drafts
Participating in mock drafts can really give you a great feel for which of these approaches you like best. They give you the freedom to try all three styles multiple times without ever being locked into a roster you are uncomfortable with. After a few mock drafts of each approach you should know which one is your favorite. This will also help you get a better understanding of when certain steals guys usually come off the board in drafts and also a better understanding of how to avoid a roster that you are unhappy with. By that I mean going to heavy one way or the other; speed is essential to fantasy success and you can’t come up short on stolen bases but you also don’t want to overdo it with a plethora of one category contributors. Find that sweet spot of just the right amount of projected stolen base totals. Hop into some of the Mock Draft Army drafts and go up against myself and many others here at Fantasy Alarm.
2019 Stolen Base Leaders
Using the above chart of the 2019 stolen base leaders, it will be easier to see how some of the top stolen base guys can help you (or hurt you) in other categories. This same thought process can be used when targeting any category; doing research into how each player can help or hurt you will always be beneficial to your roster.
A few quick key notes from 2019; seven players finished with 20+ steals, 20+ homeruns, and better than a .270 batting average:
- Jonathan Villar 40-24-.274
- Ronald Acuna Jr. 37-41-.280
- Christian Yelich 30-44-.329
- Starling Marte 25-23-.295
- Tommy Pham 25-21-.273
- Trevor Story 23-35-.294
- Francisco Lindor 22-32-.284
- Danny Santana 21-28-.283
Ten players finished with 10+ steals, 30+ homeruns, and a better than .270 batting average. They are the following:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. 37-41-.280
- Christian Yelich 30-44-.329
- Trevor Story 23-35-.294
- Francisco Lindor 22-32-.284
- Cody Bellinger 15-47-.305
- Austin Meadows 12-33-.291
- Juan Soto 12-34-.282
- Mike Trout 11-45-.291
- Ketel Marte 10-32-.329
- Marcus Semien 10-33-.285
Speed is just one of the many crucial parts to building a championship roster. Be sure to check out all that the Draft Guide has to offer and construct a winning team. Good luck in your upcoming drafts and take home the crown this season!