When you suffer a tough loss in sports, you’re expected to shake it off pretty quickly. That’s what competition is all about. You win some, you lose some. It’s how you rebound from a loss that matters most. You learn from the experience; you toughen up and you move on. It’s supposed to be the same in sports wagering. You certainly can’t win them all and when you lose, even if it’s a really bad beat, you pick yourself up, dust yourself off and move on to the next day.
And yet, here I am, still lamenting over last night’s Astros/Mariners game. If you missed it, allow me to do a quick sum-up. I hit a bit of a cold streak in the MLB Best Bets over on Wager Alarm. Nothing terrible and I’m still up plenty for the season, but when you’re posting picks and you hit a cold streak, you feel like garbage. It hurts more because you know people are reading your stuff and, in some cases, tailing your picks.
So, it’s a short slate of games and, based on the match-ups (and my recent cold streak), I’m playing light. I look through the games, do the research and I settle in on the Astros money line to win. The return isn’t great, but we’re just looking for the win. I dive in deeper and feel like I can double-dip on this game and take both the money line and the run line (-1.5). After all, I love the match-up and feel like we’re in a good spot for both, especially with the Astros as the visiting team and getting the full nine innings to hit.
The Astros go up 6-0 in the top of the first. Spectacular. Luis García (R) has the lead and settles in beautifully (side note, I took the over 6.5 strikeouts prop for Garcia too). I have to turn off the game in the top of the fourth as the Astros plate their seventh run and start up the Alarm After Hours. I’m hosting with Jon Impemba. It’s already been a 17-hour day, but I’m feeling pretty good.
Then the wheels start to fall off the wagon.
The Mariners score three in the bottom of the fourth and it’s 7-3
The Astros get a run back in the top of the fifth. It’s now 8-3
In the bottom of the fifth, Kyle Seager (L) hits a three-run home run and it’s now 8-6. I’m now getting nervous.
Shed Long with an RBI-single in the bottom of the sixth and now it’s 8-7. I’m officially losing the run-line bet but still have the money line bet in my favor. I just need the Astros to hold on.
As we are getting to wrap up the show and take our final commercial break, Impemba hits me with the news – Dylan Moore (R) hits a friggin grand slam in the bottom of the eight to put the Mariners up 11-8. I don’t even know what to say. For the first time, I’m on radio and I’m speechless, especially when Jon is giving me the whole, “Wow. I’ve never seen a ball travel that far. I think he hit it out of the park.”
I mean, there’s just nothing you can do, right? Everything laid out perfectly on paper and even started off well on the field. I know I’m supposed to move past it, but this one, for some reason, stings a little bit more. It’s a good thing I’m off for the next two days on Wager Alarm. Gotta walk away for at least the first day and clear my head. Maybe take some solace in the fact that I actually activated Dylan Moore (R) in one of my money leagues this week. Sigh.
In other MLB news from last night’s slate…
Oh Baby, Ohtani!
Continuing his quest for the AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani (L) put together yet another fantastic night, both on the mound and at the plate. He starts the night throwing a scoreless frame in the top of the first and an RBI-single with a stolen base (his 14th of the season) in the bottom of the first. He then proceeds to throw seven innings of one-run ball with just five hits allowed, no walks and five strikeouts. He doesn’t get on-base for the rest of the night, but does that matter? If you used him as a pitcher you got a dominant outing from him that includes his fifth win of the season and if you used him as a hitter, you get the RBI and an elusive stolen base. He’s now 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and exactly 100 strikeouts in just 80 innings. At the plate, he’s batting .277 with 35 home runs, 76 RBI and 14 stolen bases. If you aren’t blown away by both of those stat lines, then I don’t know what to tell you. The guy is the favorite to win the MVP and is probably going to be rostered by a huge percentage of fantasy baseball championship teams.
Steer Clear of Reds Relievers
The Reds bullpen has been a hot mess all season and things aren’t getting any better, no matter who they use. Amir Garrett (L) has been a disaster, Tejay Antone (R) seems to always be injured and now Heath Hembree (R) is starting to break. He nailed down back-to-back saves right before last night’s game, but those appearances have now been bookended by missed opportunities. He was called upon in the eighth on July 20 and gave the team a scare as he allowed a run on two hits and almost let the Mets grab the win and last night, he is asked to help stop the bleeding with one out to go in the eighth. He gets that out but then comes out for the ninth and proceeds to walk a couple of guys and hit another. David Bell sees enough and brings in…Garrett? Game over as Garrett allows a single and one of the inherited runners scores. Now you can say, “hey, it’s one night. Theses things happen,” and they do. The problem is they happen to the Reds like all the time.
Injuries to Monitor
Angels 1B/OF Jared Walsh (L) was removed from last night’s game with an injury to his side. He said he felt something when he singled in the sixth inning and was immediately lifted. Manager Joe Maddon said the trainers don’t believe it to be anything serious, so consider him day-to-day and monitor the updates.
Twins closer Taylor Rogers (L) was lifted from a save opportunity last night due to a sprained left middle finger. It clearly happened during his delivery as he threw a wild pitch and immediately walked off the mound. He’s being considered day-to-day for now and it looks like Alex Colomé (R) will handle any saves work while he’s down, but, more importantly, this is going to affect Rogers trade value. Maybe he lands somewhere else as the Twins are selling, but will he close anymore? Tough question.
Today’s Slate
We’ve got a nice slate of division rivalries tonight, though no real marquee match-ups on the mound and no overwhelming favorites for betting purposes. Believe it or not, the Cubs are the heaviest favorite right now with a the money line sitting at -190 in their favor. You’ve got Adbert Alzolay (R) facing Vladimir Gutierrez (R), so I’m not even sure which way I would go here. I guess you have to give it to the Cubs with the Reds pen such a mess. Problem is, if Alzolay only goes four or five innings, is the Cubs bullpen all that reliable themselves? Personally, I’m taking the day off, but Dan Servodidio will have you covered for MLB Betting on Wager Alarm. Maybe I’ll just head over to DFS Alarm and see what Justin Vreeland's got for me there.