NASCAR DFS: Bucked Up 200 Playbook

The Camping World Truck Series is back Friday night after taking last week off from Miami. The two races are Miami were purely night & day. The Cup race was pretty boring and uneventful. However, the Xfinity race was exciting as Myatt Snider got his first career win after Noah Gragson ran into some awful luck when David Starr blew a tire, went up the track into Gragson’s line, and Noah got into his rear. This happened with less than ten laps to go and Gragson was easily running away with the race. That just goes to show anything can happen in NASCAR DFS so we need to be mindful of that. The variance is off the charts in this sport. You could’ve turned the race off prior to Gragson’s wreck and just assumed you were safely cashing only to have the luck turn on him, and you. That’s why I’m mostly playing GPP’s at the moment because, there was no question, if playing Cash I would’ve had Gragson in my lineup and that misfortune could’ve cost me money.

But we’ll get to Xfinity in the next Playbook. For now, the Trucks are back after not running Miami. Friday night’s race in Vegas is set for 134 laps giving us 93.8 dominator points to target.  Over the last six races at Vegas, we’ve typically seen three-to-six cautions for about 20-35 laps. The one outlier was the playoff race from 2018 that saw 11 cautions for 47 laps. This is one of those basic 1.5-mile tri-ovals you’ll see run quite often on the NASCAR schedule. This is also… A Kyle Busch race. If you’re new to NASCAR DFS and don’t know many of the drivers in the field, well there’s at least a good chance you’ve heard of Kyle Busch. Kyle Busch runs a few races each year at the Truck and Xfinity level. He owns his own Truck Series team so he likes to get some of these races in each year. This is also his home track and he’ll be starting further back. So it only makes sense to kick off the Truck Playbook with him in the Driver Pool.

Truck Series Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($15,000; Starting P29) KFB Baby. While the results in the Cup series have been pretty terrible since the start of 2020 (just a win at Texas and a win at the Clash), he’s going to be chalky this weekend for the Truck series. He’s offering PD and he’s clearly the best driver in the field in great equipment. When we see KFB race in the Truck and Xfinity series, he’s usually priced up, but DK fumbled with the price tag here. $15,000 is too cheap for Busch. Last year in this race he led 108 laps and had 61 fastest laps in route to an easy win. If Busch starts P29, and being the odds-on favorite to win, +28 PD would be 28 points. And 45 points would win. That would put him at 73 points. He won’t lead as many laps as he did a year ago, but he also won’t have trouble moving through the field. I always get asked about Kyle Busch strategies when he races at the Truck and Xfinity level, and I’ll likely make 20 lineups Friday night and he’ll be in about seven-to-eight lineups. You can play him in Cash but I’d probably avoid Cash games Friday night because his salary is so restricting that if you and 80-90% of the Cash players roster him, you’ll likely end up roster other drivers together as well. But for GPP’s there is enough flexibility with the price that you can build a variety of lineups. It’s also worth noting KFB has won his last three Truck Series races at Las Vegas… So yeah, he’s tough to fade.

Austin Hill ($11,000; Starting P31) For any lineup that fades Kyle Busch, you’ll likely find Austin Hill. Hill’s had a bad start to the season, hence why he’s starting closer to the rear. But he’s run very well in his last three Truck series races at Vegas. Keep in mind, this is a track NASCAR runs twice a year. Kyle’s won the last three Spring races, and Hill’s won the last two Fall races here, and a year ago in this race, he finished third. He won’t carry the ownership nor the price tag, but given the PD he’ll be a good pivot off Busch. If speaking about my own builds, I think I’ll look to other drivers if pivoting off Busch. Austin Hill’s looked a little off through two races. I hope this doesn’t kill me, but I might only play him in just two lineups.

Zane Smith ($10,600; Starting P32) He’s arguably a better play than Hill. He’s starting right next to him and he’s saving you $400. Zane’s in a great ride with GMS Racing, but hasn’t yielded the results we saw last season. But it’s no secret to how good he is. He won at Michigan and Dover last season and over the final three races he didn’t finish worse than third at Texas, Martinsville, and Phoenix. He did pretty well at 1.5-mile tracks as well so he should easily move up. I’m curious as to what he ownership could look like if everybody falls in love with Busch, Hill, and/or Kligerman.

Parker Kligerman ($10,100; Starting P40) Parker Kligerman was another driver who offered a lot of PD when he raced part-time last year in the Truck series. Like, A LOT of PD. He routinely started toward the rear and moved his way up plenty of times. See below:

-Pocono; Started 40^th, Finished 15^th

-Kentucky; Started 37^th, Finished 18^th

-Michigan; Started 35^th, Finished 9^th

-Daytona Road Course; Started 16^th, Finished 8^th

-Bristol; Started 35^th, Finished 4^th

-Kansas; Started 35^th, Finished 15^th

-Martinsville: Started 37^th, Finished 24^th

Kligerman ran eight races last year and returned at least eight spots of positive PD in seven of them (as you can see above) and has at least 19 spots of positive PD in six of them. The one “bad” race he had last year was Dover where he had an engine issue. Now, like Kyle Busch, Kligerman is pricey. But he isn’t as expensive as Kyle Busch. But ownership will still be high. In any non-Kyle Busch lineup, you’ll likely find Parker Kligerman. He’s not a huge candidate to win the race, but an easy one to target for position differential.

Sheldon Creed ($9,800; Starting P2) We should probably talk about a few drivers that could potentially lead laps early on until they get passed by KB51. Creed has a pretty good history at Vegas. In four races he’s never finished outside the top ten, and three of those races resulted in top six finishes. On 1.5-mile tracks last year he did very well. He won at Kansas in the playoffs, and was runner-up at Kansas, Vegas (Fall), and he won at Kentucky. He’s on the front row and has a decent shot at early dominator points.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,500; Starting P3) DraftKings dropped the price tag on JHN and I don’t quite know why. He didn’t return massive value over the first two races but he’s averaged 45 points on DK through two runsand we finally have him at a track where dominator points matter. He’ll have to get around Creed and Ben Rhodes though. As Matt noted on the podcast, track position is everything. But he’s in the same position he was in for the last two races: starting toward the front and he’s in some of the best equipment in the field. I’m jumping all over the discount this week. In his prime Xfinity days, 1.5-mile tracks were his bread and butter and the lack of PD may keep ownership down.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,200; Starting P16) Ankrum might be my favorite play starting in the P15-P20 range. Dare I say he’s this week’s Raphael Lessard? He’s a fan favorite and seems like a nice kid. But he had some bad luck a year ago and he did have some struggles at 1.5-mile tracks at times. However, he was starting higher than he should have been. In 21 of the 23 races last year he started P11 or higher. And in only one race did he start outside the Top 15. I’m not going crazy with ownership, but I think I’ll be okay having him in five-of-20 lineups. A top ten would get him close to 5X value and he has the ability to do that and remember, he’s in good equipment and likely won’t carry much ownership. Update: I have not been putting Ankrum in many builds. Based on my roster construction I haven't had the salary for him. So while he isn't in my driver pool, I'll leave him in the Playbook for the time being.

Conor Daly ($7,700; Starting P36) He normally races IndyCar, but he has some experience in the Truck series. He raced here a year ago (with practice and qualifying) and finished 18^th after starting 27^th. The good news is that he does log plenty of iRacing sessions in preparation and by no means is he a spring chicken. I won’t have him in a many lineups, but I do want him in probably three of my builds considering he would return 5X value with another Top 20 finish here.

Raphael Lessard ($7,400; Starting P13) If you were in the NASCAR DFS chat leading up to lock for the DRC race a couple week’s ago, you know that Lessard was among my favorite plays for that race. And for most of the race it looked like a great call. He was running inside the top ten, but he was spun around on the final laps of the race. I was up big most of that race, only to finish in the red. He wasn’t particularly great on 1.5-mile tracks last year. But the price continues to drop and he’s better than the finishing results he’s posted so far this year. I won’t be as heavy as I was two weeks ago, but I like him again as a low-owned play.

Chase Purdy ($6,600; Starting P21) I’m not in love with these next three drivers, but they’re worth touching on. This is a nice price tag and starting spot for GMS Racing equipment. But let’s be honest with ourselves here, Purdy was basically hit-or-miss at 1.5-mile tracks last year and there were more misses than hits. His price is dropping which I’m fine with and this is a decent starting spot. A top 15 finish would get him 5X value and I certainly think he can get there, but it’s not a lock. Leave him out of your Cash lineup, but he’s in play for GPP’s.

Jordan Anderson ($6,500; Starting P28) So last year, Jordan Anderson finished second at Daytona and followed that up by starting and finishing 20^th at Vegas. That’s a decent run if we’re telling the truth. He’s not in the best equipment so he’ll gladly take it. Typically, we’ve seen him just “hold position” at Vegas when he’s run here previously. But if he cracks the top 20 then he’s giving you 5X value. If I had to give my professional opinion, I’d say he doesn’t do that, but this a sport of variance. There’s always a shot he exceeds out expectations.

Hailie Deegan ($6,400; Starting P30) I gotta hand it to her, she’s looked pretty solid through her first two Truck Series races. Have the final results been there? No. She’s run in the top ten midway through the first two races of the season, but she just hasn’t had the results she wanted. The starting spot Friday night lends her to positive PD, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s starting next to Kyle Busch. Maybe she hitches herself to him and just follows him up through the field. I’d avoid her in Cash games, but she’s a good GPP target.

Bret Holmes ($5,800; Starting P38) He’s not my favorite target in this price range, but when it’s all said and done Friday night I could see Holmes being among my most-owned drivers simply because I don’t think the field will be as high on him. The big thing is if he can actually move up through the field. Bret Holmes won the ARCA series championship last year so it’s not like he runs in bad equipment. However, the equipment is a bit of a mystery. He may have a decent engine and chassis, but people may stay away purely from a standpoint they don’t know him. Holmes might be a cheap way to differentiate DFS lineups that also roster Kyle Busch. But the equipment is a still a big question mark.

Tyler Hill ($5,700; Starting P25) Hill might be one of my favorite plays based purely on an ownership perspective and I’m hoping his price tag doesn’t entice too many people to play him. When Hill ran the Truck series last season, he was a pretty good PD target. Not to the likes of Parker Kligerman necessarily, but he started 26^th here last Fall and finished 17^th. He also started 28^th and finished 14^th at Kansas, which is another 1.5-mile track, and finished 11^th at Texas. So for what it’s worth, he was a solid performer on these tracks a year ago and hopefully his big brother Timmy has encouraged him to get some iRacing sessions on this track ahead of Friday night’s action.

BJ McLeod ($5,300; Starting P39) Rarely do I mention BJ McLeod. That’s mostly because he normally runs in the Xfinity series, not the Truck series. But Friday night he’ll be very affordable offering some nice PD. He’ll be in the 34-truck for the Reaume Brothers. Good equipment? Ehhh, probably not. But McLeod typically gets the best out of whatever he’s driving. He likely hits 5X value if he finishes 27^th.

Other Drivers To Consider: As of 5:30pm ET on Friday night, I have my 20 lineups built and I settled on eight KB51 lineups. I also added exposure of Tanner Gray thanks to sfbayshiefs in the NASCAR DFS chat. It's pretty difficult to fit in $8,000+ drivers if pairing KB51 with one of the other three $10K drivers, hence why I landed on Gray for a few builds. Additionally, if you fade Kyle (which I did in 12 lineups) I'm trying to fit in Sheldon Creed or John Hunter Nemechek to collect dominator points. However, those lineups also contain some combination of Austin Hill, Zane Smith, and Parker Kligerman. Also be on the lookout for Camping World tonight. They'll be hard to miss considering they're sponsoring ten trucks.

Core Drivers