Alright let’s shake off some dust for the first Truck Series playbook of the year! The NextEra Energy 250 will run Friday night and we’re set for 100 laps. On DraftKings that gives us 70 dominator points (0.45 points per fastest lap and 0.25 points per lap led). That isn’t a lot to work with, but it’s better than what we had with the Clash on Tuesday. Now the fastest lap bonus will be a bit of a crapshoot. The drivers will be racing in a pack so we typically don’t see anybody truly dominate restrictor plate races in terms of fastest laps. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for multiple drivers to lead 15+ laps, but it is unlikely we’ll see even a single driver register at least 15 fastest laps. Friday’s stages will be run in 20-20-60 segments.

At the time of this writing (Thursday night) we don’t have the starting order yet. Qualifying for the Truck race will be 3:10pm ET on Friday (gotta love holiday weekends), which is right around the time I’m getting out of work so when I get home I’ll start adding a few notes regarding starting order and will update the Core Plays, but for the most part I’ll be in the chat answering questions leading up to lock. There are 46 drivers qualifying for 36 spots so over 20% of qualifying drivers will not run the actual race, so we don’t know who the good value plays are at this moment.

Now if you listened to this week’s NASCAR DFS Podcast we touched on some strategies for building lineups for superspeedway tracks. Don’t hesitate to leave money on the table. Target drivers starting toward the rear for the position differential upside. And don’t be afraid to stack teams and manufacturers. Teams and manufacturers typically work together throughout the race and they’ll pit together as well. And as always, just pray your drivers can avoid the big one. You’ll see your DFS scores fluctuate throughout the entire race, so you really shouldn’t check your lineups until the end of the race.

IMPORTANT – PLEASE READ: Before we dive into the driver pool, it’s worth noting that no driver is necessarily off the table. You can safely ride around at the rear and stay on the lead lap and as long as you avoid the Big One you can move up by default. However, the trucks are the most unpredictable in superspeedway races. The aerodynamics of the trucks allow for faster drafts for the trucks trying to make a pass and they just generally race in tighter bunches but this also leads to more wreckage. Last year there were 26 laps run under caution. 2019 saw 55 laps run under caution. And 2018 saw 35 laps run under caution. Chaos is the norm here. So, you’ll hear this all week, but play this weekend incredibly light because Daytona carries no bias. Nobody is safe.

Driver Pool

Sheldon Creed (Starting P2; $10,600) It’s hard not to mention Sheldon Creed, the defending Gander RV Truck Series champion, in the first race of the year. He’s had decent runs in a pair of Daytona races, but he hasn’t had those elite finishes. Plus he’s even acknowledged in previous interviews that he’s known for unfortunately wrecking trucks. He won five races last season so I’d feel like an idiot if I didn’t mention the defending champion and he somehow went out and won the whole damn thing. I like Creed, but don’t love him for tonight. Not using Creed in any Cash-style builds for tonight since he’s starting P2.

John Hunter Nemechek (Starting P7; $10,400) We’re probably going to see all three Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers crack the Playbook and they’ll be a popular stack if you choose to go that route. JHN willingly took a demotion from the Cup series a year ago to go down to the Truck series to build a relationship with Toyota and Kyle Busch in the event a future Toyota seat opens up. He’s no stranger to the Truck series as he has six wins, 28 Top Five’s, and 50 Top Ten finishes in 102 races at this level throughout his career. The success at this level at Daytona and Talladega is lacking. However, he’s on a great team and this is some of the best equipment he’ll have ever raced in. The further back he starts, the chalkier he will be but we’ll see where things stand come Friday afternoon.

Austin Hill (Starting P18; $10,200) Not the first, and definitely not the last Toyota we’ll touch on. The Toyota’s logged nine of the ten fastest speeds during Thursday’s practice and you might scoff at that and think “So what? You and Matt say practice doesn’t matter at Daytona,” and that’s a fair point. However, it’s pretty clear that if these beasts run together, they’ll be fast. Hill won this race two years ago and finished sixth at Talladega later on in the same season. And a year ago at this race he started 15th and finished sixth. He’s definitely one of the better drivers in the Truck series and he’ll be a popular option. Cash and GPP eligible given the starting spot.

Matt Crafton (Starting P14; $10,000) Experience carries a lot of weight and very few (if any) drivers have more experience than Crafton. Crafton was fast earlier on Thursday and he’s only wrecked out of Daytona once since 2006. He only has an average finish of about 15.0 between Daytona and Talladega. But he’s been here plenty of times and he was the Gander RV series champion back in 2019. If ThorSport and other Toyotas do run together they’ll be able to run comfortably into the third stage.

Grant Enfinger (Starting P3; $9,600) Enfinger was an absolute animal in this race a year ago. He started 11th and would go on to win the whole thing and lead 41 laps. Over his last three races at Daytona he’s finished first, second, and sixth. The recent success at Talladega hasn’t been as promising, but he won there in 2016 and again… He’s in one of those Toyota’s that we hyped up on the podcast. He’s not a KBM driver, but ThorSport Racing is constantly putting out some of the best Trucks each year. More of a GPP play now.

Johnny Sauter (Starting P1; $8,200) If there is one driver whose radio you need to listen to in the Truck series, it’s Johnny Sauter. He doesn’t hold back. He’ll openly scream at his own crew chief, curse like a sailor, and complain about everyone else on the track because it’s always someone else’s fault. He’s electric on the radio and he’s coming off a very down year. Sauter struggled without practice a year ago. 2019 didn’t see him necessarily light it up by any means, but he at least had a win and ten Top Ten finishes. 2020 didn’t deliver him a win and while he had eight Top Ten finishes, he frustrated DFS players more than he rewarded them. But this is a solid price tag for Sauter. Again, he’s in a Toyota and he logged the third-fastest lap (whoop deedoo Basil) during practice. I guess it’s also worth mentioning he won this race three times from 2013-2018. GPP Only with Sauter now that he’s starting on the pole.

Chandler Smith (Starting P6; $8,100) Another KBM Toyota and a driver we’re getting at a bit of a discount. Smith moves over to the 18-Truck for KBM and while he frustrated DFS players at times as a rookie, you can hang your hat on the fact he finished third at Talladega last year. Starting spot will be key for him, but in a GPP with the speed he’ll carry, he’s a fine play either way.

Raphael Lessard (Starting P5; $7,600) Here’s a guy you can keep an eye on. Lessard is no longer with KBM, but he moves to GMS Racing, which is still a solid team of young drivers. He finished 20th at Daytona one year ago, but he had an average running position inside the top ten and he went on to win Talladega last Fall. I don’t like taking too many risks on drivers without a lot of experience at superspeedways. But on the few races he has run he’s looked pretty solid.

Jordan Anderson (Starting P20; $6,700) Anderson’s basically an all-or-nothing play at superspeedways. He’s run eight races combined between Daytona and Talladega. He’s only wrecked out of one, but he did have mechanical issues in another. Truth be told he has four finishes inside the top ten at Daytona and Talladega and four finishes 19th or worse. He also finished second at this race a year ago behind Grant Enfinger so with the risk comes potential.

Drew Dollar (Starting P17; $6,300) I would love nothing more than the field to sleep on Drew Dollar… But they probably won’t. The fact that he’s a member of Kyle Busch Motorsports will perk up the ears of many players. But here’s what I like about Dollar, in last year’s ARCA Menards series he showed up on superspeedways. In 2020’s ARCA Daytona race he started fifth and finished third, and then at Talladega he started second and went on to win the race and he led 40 laps. He’s had good fortune so far. Hopefully that carries over to Friday night. Daytona will mark the first of eight races for Dollar in the 51-Truck so it’s a great opportunity for him to make a strong impression. But we’ll stress this as much as possible throughout the season, the Truck series is its own animal and rostering drivers without a ton of experience here carries risk.

Austin Wayne Self (Starting P19; $5,800) If Austin Wayne Self is on the slate, I’m always entertaining the idea of playing him in GPP’s. He comes with a lot of variance, so consider this your warning. He can get you some nice PD, but he can also have mechanical issues. Here are his results at Daytona in five races:

  • 2020: 31st
  • 2019: 9th
  • 2018: 20th
  • 2017: 2nd
  • 2016: 19th

If he continues the trend of having a solid race every other year, then he’s due for a great finish Friday night! This is more of a gut call, as are most AWS calls.

Codie Rohrbaugh (Starting P26; $5,300) Rohrbaugh is a slight favorite of mine, but he had some bad luck toward the end of last year. But people forget he went three-wide in this race last year on the final lap but ultimately finished third. He also went out and finished fifth at Talladega, so while he had some awful luck at other tracks, he’s fared pretty well on superspeedways.

Carson Hocevar (Starting P12; $5,000) After a part-time schedule with Niece Motorsports last season, Hocevar is now a full-time driver with the team. Not a bad gig for a kid who just turned 18 about two weeks ago. You will have to take some shots with your Truck lineups tonight. There will be cautions and a bunch of laps will be run under caution. With Hocevar you’re mostly looking at pedigree over anything else. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but neither do a lot of drivers. If he qualifies further back I like him to offer up some PD. Risky play not since he’s starting in the Top 12. Large-field GPP play only.

Other Drivers To Target: So following qualifying a lot of the drivers mentioned above are starting relatively high. In brief, if you’re building a Cash lineup you should target drivers starting further back to benefit from position differential and don’t check your lineups until the end of the race. You’ll likely leave a lot of money on the table, but that happens at Daytona. With that said I’ll add Stewart Friesen to the pool since he’s starting P28 and offers plenty of experience. Todd Gilliland at P21 presents PD upside as well but he’s starting in the middle of the pack. Tanner Gray, Ryan Truex, and Derek Kraus are all guys I’ll be adding to my personal player pool as well. A lot of the players written up prior to qualifying get a bit of a downgrade because of their starting spot. Get a healthy mix of drivers that offer positive PD upside while still mixing in some of the elite drivers. The Toyotas have still been fast despite a few of them qualifying pretty high.

Final Thoughts: So I know this feels lighter than the normal amount of drivers we normally write up for a Playbook. Again, we have a large field and some plays will emerge following qualifying on Friday afternoon. So while this may feel like a more brief Playbook, never fret, I’ll be in the chat and updating the Playbook once we know the starting order and identifying better PD plays.

Core Plays

Top Tier

Mid-Tier

Lower Tier

Austin Hill

Stewart Friesen

James Buescher

Matt Crafton

Ryan Truex

Austin Wayne Self

Ben Rhodes

Derek Kraus

Codie Rohrbaugh