Whether you are still in the playoffs or not, now is a crucial moment in your dynasty and keeper leagues. On many sites, waivers are still open but will be closing down for the year when rosters lock this Sunday (or shortly after). So now might be the last chance you have to pop in and stash those sweet, sweet prospects before it’s too late.
We already covered tight ends because those are my favorite and I make the rules. Well technically. Howard Bender makes the rules but sometimes I get to do what I want. So there. Tight ends are done so now we will look at everyone else’s favorite position to speculate on in fantasy football: wide receiver. I know there are many different formats in terms of keeper vs. dynasty vs. salary cap and these leagues have varying depths so I’m going to do my best to cover options from the most shallow to super deep. Since it’s a popular platform, the rostership percentages below are based on Yahoo but your mileage may vary. Here we go.
Shallow Leagues:
Laviska Shenault, JAC - 29%
One of my favorite approaches in dynasty and keeper leagues is to target the players I feel are talented yet are currently trapped in underperforming offenses. A good example would be Marquise Brown last year. After an amazing 2019, Lamar Jackson took a little step back passing the football in 2020 but, if you believed the team could improve, Brown could be had for a discount. This year Jackson has thrown for more yards in his 12 games than he did in 15 last year and Brown subsequently went from WR34 to WR16 in half PPR - despite missing a game himself. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson could be in a similar boat but those guys are held in nearly every league - we are looking for gems who might be in the free agent pool.
If you haven’t figured it out based on that first paragraph, I think Laviska Shenault is a good player and I think it’s well worth the risk to acquire him with hopes that the Urban Meyer Incident goes down in the books as more of a train derailment than a catastrophic explosion. And, if we get Trevor Lawrence back on track, those around him can potentially flourish.
Shenault himself is an incredibly physical player that does not shy away from contact which makes him difficult to bring down in the same vein as guys like AJ Brown or Deebo Samuel. In fact, his best comparable player per PlayerProfiler.com is AJ Brown himself.
Both players are ~6 foot, 225+ pounds which is more than enough for some defensive backs to consider “business decisions” when he’s barreling down on them. I mean, watch him absorb the hit in the first clip here in college like it’s nothing.
And then watch him do it again here in the National Football League.
His penchant for contact has naturally made him a bit of an injury risk but toughness and physicality is obviously something that coaches love. He has flashed at times early in his career but the issues production-wise seem to stem from both the poor QB play and the scheme. Not only is he playing a mere 66% snap share but his average depth of target of 6 yards puts him outside the top 200 receivers.
Two. Hundred.
The gamble here is that Trevor Lawrence actually ends up being a decent quarterback and taking a step forward next year which is obviously a risk in itself but Shenault is cheap enough with high enough upside that it’s worth it DJ Chark is an unrestricted free agent following the season and Marvin Jones Jr. will be 32 in March so, if Lawrence does live up to his first overall potential, Shenault will have VIP tickets to the event. He’s under contract for the next two years and he’s only 23 so he could have a lot of football left to play. He’s likely rostered in most serious dynasty leagues but could be available in some shallow ones or keeper leagues.
Honorable Shallow League Mentions: Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Curtis Samuel
Medium Leagues:
Josh Palmer, LAC - 4%
The guys above are almost certainly rostered in most dynasty leagues - now we get into the players who may be fringe roster decisions in average dynasty leagues and should be available in many leagues where you don’t keep your entire roster. The name of the game here is simple. We like Justin Herbert. Mike Williams and Jared Cook are both unrestricted free agents next year. Jalen Guyton is a restricted free agent. That is our potential window.
Palmer gets a bad rap for his lack of college production but he also played at Tennessee where the QB play was sub par against the brutal SEC. The reason Chargers scouts actually found him was that they were looking for a cornerback and this Josh Palmer guy kept showing up on video making great plays vs. top corners. Here were some of the corners he faced and where they were drafted in 2021.
- Jaycee Horn - 8th overall
- Patrick Surtain II - 9th overall
- Eric Stokes - 29th overall
- Tyson Campbell - 33rd overall
- Kelvin Joseph - 44th overall
Against those five players, Palmer caught 14 of 14 catchable targets for 11 first downs and four touchdowns at 16 yards per catch. All first and second round CBs. The Chargers did take a CB in the second with Asante Samuel Jr (Palmer’s high school teammate) then they made sure to circle back and grab Palmer in the third. He’s not overly fast or athletic but contested catches are his game - here is an example from this season on Halloween night.
On only 35% of the overall team snaps, he’s managed to find pay dirt three times this season. Everyone wants rookies to blow up right away but not every rookie gets to be Amon-Ra St. Brown playing every single snap on a ghost ship that has no other viable pass catchers. Some guys get stuck waiting behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Jared Cook for opportunities. Chris Godwin had to wait for DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries to get out of the way but then what happened? Lazer show. As we mentioned above, that time may come sooner than later for Palmer and he’s a 22 year old player tied to a 23 year old Justin Herbert for the next three years at least.
Honorable Medium League Mentions: Nico Collins, Terrace Marshall Jr., Cedrick Wilson
Deep Leagues:
Parris Campbell, IND - 2%
There is a certain portion of the dynasty community that sticks to rigid guidelines in terms of early production. Some even say that, if a wide receiver doesn’t get 525 yards as a rookie, regardless of injury, they are out on him completely. Regardless of injury.
Now, some folks like myself might not have given up on Campbell yet so he might not be available in all deep leagues. I’ll include some deeper players in the honorable mentions below and I’ll even go “super deep” with a fourth tier of players for the real sickos in like 30 team leagues. But Campbell needs to be talked about. If someone is still holding him, it’s likely because this guy possesses freakish athletic ability and explosiveness. Here are his metrics from PlayerProfiler.
100th percentile speed. Is that good? There is a reason this dude was selected in the 2019 draft ahead of his college teammate, Terry McLaurin. And that’s his explosive upside. The reason he may be widely available in leagues? Well, he can’t stay healthy. In three NFL seasons, he’s only played 14 games while suffering from a litany of injuries - some of which are fluky to a certain degree (hand fracture, foot fracture, concussion) and some are more alarming (hamstring issues, multiple abdominal strains, knee surgery).
The bet we are making here however is pretty simple - that this guy has just been unlucky and, soon enough, his speed and agility will be unleashed to wreak havoc on the league. He’s actually been designated to return for IR so we may get a glimpse of that to cap off this season. So go add him right now before the cat is out of the bag!
Honorable Deep League Mentions: DeAndre Carter, Laquon Treadwell, Quintez Cephus, Seth Williams (activated for this week based on COVID)
Super Deep Leagues:
Tamorrion Terry, FA
Okay let’s say you looked at all these players so far and said “that’s not deep - those guys are all rostered in MY leagues”. Fine. Your league is tough then, tough guy. You want tough? How about a guy who is currently being indicted for murder then?
I know, seems like a wasted roster spot. But if your league is THAT deep where everyone is rostering practice squad players and other complete Hail Marys, why not swing for the fences? “Indicted” does not mean GUILTY. And there is no “court of public opinion” for rostering “bad guys” on your fantasy team. I’ve seen Joe Mixon punch a woman in the face with my own two eyeballs yet he’s the RB3 right now in most formats so he’s rostered in 100% of leagues. I don’t really need to run down the list of guys in the league with criminal records. And we know for a fact that there have been plenty of instances in this country of people wrongly accused of things they didn’t do. In this SPORT that has happened. Brian Banks spent nearly FIVE years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit before eventually making his way to the NFL briefly. Do I think Tamorrion Terry is innocent? I literally could not possibly know. Here’s what I do know.
Terry went undrafted (likely because scouts did their due diligence on this incident) but he likely WOULD have been drafted otherwise. Here are his metrics per Player Profiler where he compares to Michael Gallup, a third round pick. The Seahawks did sign him as a UDFA but then released him when he was indicted.
As a redshirt freshman at FSU he had 744 yards and eight touchdowns then in his following year he had 1,188 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s pretty serious production. The bet here is once again a simple one. You are hoping that the justice system clears him of all charges, at which point he can resume his football career. If he’s guilty then he goes back into the pile with the other players on practice squads whose odds of ever being fantasy relevant are closer to 0% than 1%. If you are going to take a shot on a guy, at least take a shot on someone who has shown they can play football but has slid due to character issues (like Tyreek Hill). That’s better than rostering fellas who can’t play ball at all.
Honorable Super Deep League Mentions: Simi Fehoko, Dazz Newsome, Jalen Camp, Aesop Winston