Every year I like to run through each team and figure out who is going to be a good value and who will make their fantasy owner pull their hair out. Let me clarify a few things: A player who is considered a “bust” doesn’t mean they will have zero fantasy value. It means that he isn’t going to come close to providing a return value based on where he is drafted. The same thing works with a guy being a “value play.” If a player who is ranked 60th actually performs like a top-30 player, than that makes him a value. With that said, here is the first part of my value/bust for each team. Enjoy and feel free to comment below whether you agree or disagree.
Atlanta Hawks
Bust: Kyle Korver- The epitome of a one trick pony as Korver only has value in rotisserie leagues because of his high volume of three pointers made. He has averaged at least 2.6 three-pointers made per game in each of the past three seasons (his 2.9 3PM per game last season ranked 3rd overall in the NBA). Often considered Ashton Kutcher’s doppelganger, Korver averaged only 12 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.7 steals and a career high 0.6 blocks last season. That is just barely over 20 fantasy points per game in total points leagues. Yes, he shot 90 percent from the line last season, but he took only 1.6 attempts per game from there last season. That doesn’t really move the needle that much in roto leagues. This a player who is going to get drafted a lot higher than his actual fantasy output would suggest. Basically, people seem willing to spend a fifth or sixth round pick for a player who really only produces in one category. I’m completely avoiding him in total points leagues because he’ll produce the same amount of fantasy points as guys who can be found on the waiver wire.
Value: Dennis Schroder- He became a solid role player last season for the Hawks by averaging 10 points, 4.0 assists, and 0.6 steals in just 20 minutes of playing time per game. This is the perfect type of player to take at the end of your draft as he could gain huge value if anything happens to Jeff Teague. Even with Teague there, Schroder is still a cheap source for assists.
Boston Celtics
Bust: Marcus Smart- Honestly, it is hard to find any bust on the Celtics, but that isn’t a cop-out; it’s just that most of their players aren’t taken too high in drafts. Choosing Smart as a bust might not be the smartest decision because he did average 7.8 points, 3-plus rebounds/assists, and 1.5 steals per game last season, but it is hard to envision him averaging more than the 27 minutes per game he got last season because of all the versatile players they have on their roster (Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Isaiah Thomas, and Jae Crowder). I have no problem drafting him as one of the last picks in the draft, but I am just not going to reach for him because of his limited upside.
Value: Isaiah Thomas- He flourished with the Celtics last season by averaging 19.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.6 steals, and 2.3 three-pointers made in just 26 minutes of playing time per game. Granted, it was a small sample size of just 21 games, but to put that in perspective, his per-36 (if he played 36 minutes per game) with the Celtics was 26.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 3.2 three-pointers made per game. His per-36 is on pace with Stephen Curry’s numbers. Only nine other players in the NBA averaged 19-plus points and 5-plus assists per game last season, while only four players also averaged 2-plus three-pointers made per game as well. Thomas put up some gaudy numbers in Boston, but will be overlooked not just because of his small size, but more for his lack of minutes per game. For whatever reason other people pass on him, make sure you draft him accordingly because he’ll be a draft day steal in the sixth or seventh round.
Brooklyn Nets
Bust: Bojan Bogdanovic- The Nets are another team that doesn’t really have any players who could be considered busts. Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Thaddeus Young are decent fantasy options who get drafted where their numbers/value indicate. Therefore, it is difficult to call any of those guys a bust. Lopez could be a potential bust because of his health concerns, but the guy has played in at least 72 games in two out of the past three seasons. That brings me to Bojan Bogdanvic, who will likely start for the Nets, but will see his playing time fluctuate and just doesn’t produce in any other category besides points. This is not a player who I’d take at tail end of a draft because he has such a small floor/ceiling.
Value: Jarrett Jack- Broke down why I love Jack in my “Players Who Gained Fantasy Value” article.
Charlotte Hornets:
Bust: Nicolas Batum: The Frenchman averaged just 9.4 points (worst average per game since his rookie season) and shot a career worst 40-percent from the field. Batum struggled with a wrist injury throughout the season, which is the main reason he shot so poorly. The problem with Batum is that he just doesn’t score a lot of points as he has averaged 14 or more points in a season just once in his career. Granted, he does average about six rebounds and close to five assists per game. Throw in 1-plus three-pointer made and a steal per game, and you’ve got yourself a quality fantasy option. So why is he a bust? Well, it is all about where you draft him. He is not worth a third or fourth round pick due to his lack of shooting and scoring, but he is a great sixth or seventh round pick. It is all about where you can draft Batum, because he is unlikely to return his value as an early round draft pick, but is a player worth targeting in the middle rounds of a draft.
Value: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist- I’ve never been a MKG fan because of his poor shooting and inability to do much in the stats that count, but this year is different. First off, this will be his fourth year in the NBA, yet he’ll turn just 22 in November. He already has a lot of experience under his belt with plenty of room to grow. He averaged a career high in minutes played (29), points (10.9), and rebounds (7.6) per game last season. Expect all of those to rise this year. Plus, his career average of 0.8 blocks per game is solid for a small forward. To sum it all up, MKG is a superb pick near the end of drafts, especially if you’re looking for some cheap rebounds and blocks.
Chicago Bulls:
Bust: Nikola Mirotic- His twitter handle isn’t @Threekola just because it sounds cool, it’s also because he can hit the long range J. The problem with Mirotic is the fact that he is abysmal on defense, which is a big deal for the Bulls because that means less playing time for him. Also, he really only had one good month last season. In 15 games in March he averaged 20.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.7 three-pointers made in almost 31 minutes of playing time per game. His second best month was in April, when he averaged just 12.0 points, and 4.6 rebounds in 22 minutes per game. His three-pointers made per game increased a bit, but my point is that he’s going to get drafted relatively high this season based on that one month. The Bulls still have Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson at power forward, while Mike Dunleavy and the likes of Doug McDermott and Bobby Ports could also see minutes at the PF/SF position. Mirotic has a lot of guys he has to fight with just to get 20 minutes per game. Unless some significant injuries occur, I will be staying far away from Threekola this season.
Value: Joakim Noah- Last year, Noah was one of my top busts heading into last season because of his injury history and his value was just way too high. Well, that prediction worked out quite well for me, but what changed this year? Simply put, his stock has fallen drastically this offseason. Noah averaged 9.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.1 blocks in 30 minutes of playing per game last season. Those are great numbers, but it was his 7.0 points per game which really hindered his fantasy value. Noah is no longer a top-40 player in fantasy and drafting him as one is a mistake, but drafting him in the seventh or eighth round is pure fantasy gold. Joakim isn’t going to score points, but he’ll pile up the rebounds and assists.