Justin Verlander, 33 in February, is good looking, rich and dating Kate Upton. Yeah, his life is hard. At the same time his star was dimming, or at least it’s not shinning quite as brightly as it used to.

2013-14 SEASONS

From 2013-14 his performance was lacking. Take a look at the numbers which I discussed in his Player Profile last year. Again, from 2013-14…

Verlander had a 3.99 ERA. 
The American League average was 3.99.

Verlander had a 1.36 WHIP. 
The AL average was 1.34.

Verlander had a 7.97 K/9. 
The AL average was 7.19.

Verlander had a 2.97 BB/9. 
The AL average was 3.09.

None of that was good. At all.

Remember this data as we move forward. People will say “Verlander was better in ’15 because he was finally healthy.” Is that really true? Verlander wasn’t healthy in 2013 when he threw 218.1 innings or in 2014 when he threw 206 frames? Just asking.

At the end of the 2014 season he had core muscle surgery. He was supposed to be fine for the start of the 2015 regular season. Was he? The data below suggests otherwise.

WORKLOAD

If you recall, Verlander had a triceps “cramp” on March 27. A cramp. He was listed as day-to-day and it was said that he would return to action quickly. That “cramp” turned out to be more than two months of time on the sidelines as his first start of the season was June 13. Don’t know how anyone can be comfortable with that. How can you? How can you not be concerned about the “wear down” factor with Verlander? After all, from 2007-14 he threw 29,375 pitches, the most in baseball and more than 2,000 more than second place James Shields. Given all that work is it really surprising he finally broke down in ‘15? All told he made 20 starts last season, his lowest total – ever. For the first time since 2007 he failed to reach 200 innings pitched lasting just 133.1 innings.

Why don’t more people care about that? All they seem to care about is that he pitched better late in the campaign.

VELOCITY

According to PITCHf/x – here is the data.

2009: 95.6 mph
2010: 95.5 mph
2011: 95.0 mph
2012: 94.7 mph 
2013: 94.0 mph 
2014: 93.1 mph
2015: 93.2 mph

He had that core muscle surgery after 2014 and that was supposed to allow him to be fully “healthy” and to have his stuff back in ‘15. Well, the surgery didn’t show up at all in his velocity chart. In fact, the 1/10th difference between the “injured” and “healthy” Verlander in miles per hour is not even statistically significant. The surgery did nothing to improve his velocity. Why don’t more people care about that?

STRIKEOUTS

Verlander has always been a big time strikeout threat. Well…he has with five seasons in a row with at least 215 punchouts. However, would it surprise you to learn that in a 10-year career, I’m not counting 2005 when he tossed 11.1 innings, that Verlander has struck out a batter per inning two times. TWICE. Pretty amazing, right? Verlander always racked up the whiffs cause he threw so many damn innings year after year. To be fair and tell the whole story, Verlander did strike out 8.9 batters per nine in 2011 and 2013, but still only two seasons with a K per inning. It’s also relevant to point out the he struck out a mere 6.95 batters per nine in 2014 while last season the mark, while better, was just 7.63, well below his 8.28 K/9 career rate.

As for the swinging strike, that number returned to the expected. A career 9.9-percent performer, Verlander dipped to 8.8 percent in 2014. That number climbed back up to 10.0 percent in 2015. It’s therefore possible he could add a bit in the strikeout column, but again, it’s not getting back to the strikeout per inning level.

WALKS

Though he gave back some strikeouts from his heyday, Verlander lowered his walk rate which is a good idea at this point of his career since it should, theoretically, help to reduce his pitch count. Here are the numbers.

In 2013 Verlander walked 3.09 batters per nine.

In 2014 Verlander walked 2.84 batters per nine.

His career mark is 2.74 walks per nine.

In 2015 Verlander walked 2.16 batters per nine.

Can Verlander hold on to last season’s walk rate? Hard to say yes. Only once his in his career has be bettered that ’15 rate. Expect him to be closer to his career rate than his ’15 mark.

BATTED BALLS

Verlander owns a career .290 BABIP. Last season the mark was .267. That’s four-year low and the second lowest mark he’s posted in a decade of work. Not likely he matches that rate against in 2016 though he did allow more fly balls which could help (see below for more).

Verlander owns a 20.2 percent line drive rate for his career. The last two seasons the mark has been 19.8 and 19.9 percent. Same as always.

Every season from 2006 to 2014 his GB/FB ratio was between 0.84 and 1.19 each season. His career mark is 0.99 by the way so that makes a lot of sense. In 2013 the mark was 0.99. In 2014 the mark was 0.98. Last season the mark was a career worst at 0.76. Could it return to “normal” in 2016? Absolutely it could. Same time, let’s take a look at the two rates that make up this measure.

Verlander owns a 39.7 percent ground ball rate for his career. In 2013 the mark was 38.4 percent. In 2014 the mark was 39.6 percent. In 2015 the mark dropped to 34.6 percent. That’s not good at all. Not only was that 34.6 percent mark well below his career rate, it’s also a career low. Since we already noted that his line drive rate was the same as always, that must mean his fly ball rate went up. It did. This partly speaks to his BABIP drop, far fewer fly balls result in hits than ground balls, but it’s still a significant shift from what we’re used to seeing from Verlander. Luckily for Verlander his HR/9 mark didn’t spike since his HR/F ratio was two tenths below his career rate of 7.7 percent.

RATIOS

Verlander has a 3.52 ERA for his career. Last year he had a 3.38 mark, a three-year best. SIERA suggest that wasn’t earned. His career SIERA is 3.72 but last season the mark was even higher at 3.95. His xFIP was 4.15 last season compared to his 3.79 career mark. Both SIERA and xFIP point to the fact that Verlander’s ERA shouldn’t have been below his career mark last season.

Verlander had a 1.09 WHIP last season, that after two years with a mark that was in the 1.3’s which was worse than the league average. I’m just being honest here. Given the totality of the last three years. His age. His overall game. I find it extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Verlander will be closer to his mark last season than his career mark (1.20). I’m not ruling out that it will be “closer” to his career rate but on the high end (meaning above the 1.20 rate by less than the 0.11 mark he was down last season, i.e., up to 1.31). 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

“He’s as close to what he used to be as he’s been in a couple years, I don’t think there’s any question,” Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones said. “It’s been like old days for me to watch him right now, being able to dial it up and get himself out of innings. It’s just really fun to watch him.” Uh huh. Not buying it am I. I’m certainly more bullish on Verlander than I was 12 month ago, but that doesn’t mean I’m expecting a return to challenging for the Cy Young award. Those days are past. Workload is also a concern, at least for me, after years and years of throwing so many damn pitches and innings. Again, higher on him than last season, but he’s not back to being a building block.

10-team Mixed: Kind of just a guy in this format. He should be drafted of course, but I don’t want him as anything more than an SP5 to be honest. That gives me room to still earn a substantial profit if he throws 200 healthy innings. I just don’t think the odds of that happening are very strong.

12-team Mixed: I likely won’t end up with Verlander on my squad in a league of this size. Pretty fair guess that someone will take the plunge before I’m comfortable. At least make sure that if he’s part of your staff that you have another similarly ranked option that you can turn to just in case. Still nothing more than an SP4 if I can put my club together the right way.

15-team Mixed: Remember the drop in strikeout rate? He needs to throw 200 innings to be a true plus in that category. Do you think he can be? If so, dive in here. If you’re like me, a bit concerned/nervous, then it might be wise to proceed with caution. He still owns an arm that can dominate at times though I’m just not sure we will consistently see that pitcher 30 times this season which is why I’m reluctant to fully push him as a target.

AL-Only: All about cost. As an SP2 in this format, I could sign off. As an SP3 I would feel much better about his outlook. There are still workload concerns and that whiff rate to consider before one goes all in with Mr. Upton. 

 

To see where Verlander ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).