Daily Trends: May 21, 2015

DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.

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FLY BALL DISTANCE

Sometimes you hear things like fly ball distances mentioned, but you likely don’t read too much about it, right? That changes right now. Here are the top-20 men in baseball in term of batted ball distance on fly balls.

A few notes.

Last season only one man in baseball was over 310 and that was none other than Giancarlo Stanton at 315.08 feet. There are currently 10 men over that mark right now which suggests we’re looking at an artifact of a small sample size. Further proof there is the fact that is 2013 the league leader was Carlos Gonzalez at 313.76 feet. Don’t expect the four men over 320 feet to hold on to that, nope. Fair to think that most, if not all, will recede if they are currently over 315 feet.

Lots of the guys at the top of the list this season haven’t recorded 20 fly balls yet. Let’s focus on that number as our baseline. Here are the top-20 men in baseball who have hit at least 20 fly balls in 2015. 

Hardly a shock that we see Harper at the top of the list. Ditto all the names at the top of the list.

Some might be surprised to see a guy like Bruce listed given his overall struggles. When he hits the ball it’s still going a long way. Here are Bruce’s marks the last few years.

2012: 292.42

2013: 293.46

2014: 284.64

2015: 301.66

Maybe all hope isn’t lost after all with the lefty from Cincy?

Middlebrooks might come in 15^th on the list but with a .212/.254/.364 slash line does it matter?

Cruz has a 292.85 mark as he leads baseball with 16 homers. Why is the number so low? He’s hitting way too many damn fly balls. A career 42.8 percent fly ball bat, the number has been 41.2 percent or lower each of the past three seasons. This year that mark is way up to 45.1 percent. He’s generating a good deal of outs through the air despite all the homers. Last season when he hit 40 dingers for the Orioles his fly ball mark was slightly higher than it is this season at 296.97 feet. 

GIO GONZALEZ UPDATE

Gio Gonzalez, the 29 year old lefty of the Nationals, has had a very uneven start to his ’15 campaign. But there’s still hope. Yes his ERA is 4.94 and his WHIP is 1.54, and those are unacceptable numbers. But he’s not as far off as you might think. Check it.

2014: 3.43 SIERA, 3.39 xFIP

2015: 3.49 SIERA, 3.34 xFIP

So you’re telling me he’s pitching pretty much the same as he did last year when he had a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP? Looks that way on the surface at least.

Gio is still striking out 8.18 batters per nine, and though that is a batter off last year’s mark it’s still a solid total. He’s also picked up 29 strikeouts over his last 29 innings (five starts).

His walk total of 3.42 per nine is slightly elevated compared to last year’s 3.18 mark, but the fact is that he’s always walked too many guys (here are his BB/9 marks in 2012 and 2013 – 3.43 and 3.50).

His 1.41 GB/FB ratio for the duration of his career is also a solid mark. It’s actually through the roof good right now at 3.19 in ’15 as he’s not allowing the big fly – only two in 47.1 innings. He’s not going to maintain his 58.5 percent ground ball rate, not with a career 47.2 percent mark, but the bottom line is way too many of those ground balls are ending up as hits right now.

The real issue has been that BABIP which is .371. As I wrote yesterday in my BABIP Review of hitters, players tend to establish their own baselines in BABIP with rolling three year trends being a solid indicator of future performance. The last three seasons Gio has had a BABIP of .267, .286 and .294. His career mark is spot on with that three year level as well at .291. Pretty sure his current .371 mark is going to come way down moving forward. Also, there is this. For his career his 4-seam fastball has held batters to a .237 average. This season that mark is .333. Pretty sure that total isn’t going to stay .100 points elevated, aren’t you?

You should be buying not selling.

TYSON ROSS UPDATE

Through nine starts Tyson Ross has a 10.59 K/9 rate and 65.0 percent ground ball rate. Those numbers are off the charts good. Hall of Fame stuff. This season his xFIP is 3.19. Know what he was last year when he was a fantasy star? Try 3.11. Moreover, his SIERA is only up two tenths from last season when it was 3.21 (currently 3.41). The fact is that as bad as you think he is --- let’s just say he’s way better than your noggin’ is currently telling ya.

So what’s the issue? It’s the walk. It’s always been his bugaboo, but right now the free passes are totally out of control. Through 52.2 innings Ross has walked 29 batters, the worst mark in baseball. As a result his BB/9 is 4.96, a batter and a half above last year’s rate. It’s simplistic to say, but the truth is if he stops issuing the free pass he will return to the ranks of borderline stardom in fantasy baseball.

You should be buying not selling.

GARCIA IS BACK

Jaime Garcia has returned to the Cardinals rotation. I could care less. You shouldn’t care in the least either. The guy is alwaaaaaaays hurt.

In 2012 he threw 121.2 big league innings.

In 2013 he threw 55.1 big league innings.

In 2014 he threw 43.2 big league innings.

His career WHIP is 1.31.

His career K/9 rate is 7.20.

Why does anyone care about this guy? Seriously. He’s a solid big leaguer, and when he’s on the bump there are tons of pitchers out there who are worse than him, but seriously – why? Only worth a look in single leagues (NL-only). 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).