Judgment Day: Hitters
It's early. No one cares. People are willing to turn over their entire roster. Trades, waiver-wire additions – it's clear that everything we all thought for the past three months means nothing at this point. I mean, we've got a week of games to look at, don't we? I believe that completely, don't you? Well, maybe not. Hopefully not. Please tell me not.
This is me being honest and asking the question – why are you trading already? OK, you want to improve your team, I get it. But here's the truth. I would say that 40 or so percent of all trade offers people send to me are terrible deals. There seems to be an epidemic of massive proportions effecting peoples brains. It's called small sample size. Because so many are having problems truly evaluating players, here's a thought. Look back to the Player Rankings that were published in the 2014 Draft Guide. We have NOT played enough games to drastically change the outlook of anyone ranked there (save for relievers in new roles). It's been a week. Don't go offering a slow starting guy who was #7 at his position for the hot starter who was ranked 17th. It's been one week. Repeat... it's been one week. Repeat... it's been one week.
Simple. Two part series.
Part I is hitters.
Part II is pitchers.
Let the judgment begin.
Jose Abreu update. He's hitting .261 with no homers. The game is not that easy folks.
Everyone is excited about Abraham Almonte. Fine. But note that through six games he only has three runs scored and has struck out seven times.
Brandon Belt is god. Well not really, but he is mashing and mashing and mashing in the early going. Belt hit one homer every 29.9 at-bats last season. He's hit one home every 7.8 at-bats this season. He has a career 11 percent HR/F ratio. Pretty sure he's not gonna hold on to his 50 percent mark this season. Be happy if he goes deep 25 times.
Emilio Bonifacio is hitting .500 through 28 at-bats. Let's say he gets 500 at-bats this season and hits .290 (don't forget that he's a career .266 batter). Do you know what he will hit the rest of the way? He would bat .278 (131-for-472).
Chris Colabello is the best guy going in the AL right now hitting .391 with 11 RBIs an a 1.112 OPS. Spoiler alert. He hit .194 with 17 RBIs last season in 55 games. Some names to remember. John Buck hit nine homers with 25 RBIs last April. Mark Reynolds hit eight homers with 22 RBIs last April. J.P. Arencibia hit eight homers with 16 RBIs last April. You're picking up my point here, right? Colabello hit a monstrous .352 with 24 homers and 76 RBIs last year at Double-A. Wow is right. So ask yourself. Why is it that you didn't hear one expert touting him 10 days ago? The reason is – he's not this good. Duh, but more to the point, he's a whiff machine having struck out 89 times in 89 games last season at Triple-A and then 58 in 2013 games in the bigs. I'm not going to suggest he will be useless this season, but note that the annals of the game are filled with players who had monstrous first weeks of the season only to vanish into the landscape of mediocrity. Colabello is a must add in AL-only leagues if he wasn't drafted, and if you're in a 15 team mixed league have at it. Ten and twelve teamers you had better have a junky piece to jettison if you are going to move on to Colabello.
Chris Davis has gone 22 at-bats without a big fly. That leaves him with six homers in his last 131 at-bats.
Yes Khris Davis is batting .348. Good for him. He's also failed to go deep, has one RBI and has struck out seven times without taking a walk. Tread carefully.
Josh Hamilton is hitting .500. He's also failed to hit 26 homers or to produce 96 RBIs in two of the last three seasons.
Casey McGehee is batting .375 with 10 RBIs. He had six RBIs in 22 games with the Yankees in 2012 and is a career .258 hitter who batted .221 over 864 at-bats in 2011-12 before he was forced to go overseas for a job. Re-read that.
David Murphy is batting .316 through 19 at-bats. He's a strong play in AL-only leagues as he will rebound from a down 2013.
Chris Owings is battering .367. You should be expecting the rookie to hit .267 and hoping he finishes at .287.
Trevor Plouffe is batting .391. His career SLG is .413. Plouffe has hit .243 over 1,249 at-bats. Pretty sure he's not hitting .291 this season.
Anthony Rendon is batting .391 for the Nationals. It's like everyone just woke up from a coma and realized he could hit. He could always hit folks. Think .291 and hope for a Howie Kendrick like season with less steals.
Justin Smoak had two homers and seven RBIs in his first three games. Over his last three games he has one hit, a single, and one RBI. He's also up to seven strikeouts in six games.
You hear anyone talking about Giancarlo Stanton's 12 RBIs in just seven games?
You can also check out Rick Wolf's early season take on hitters... Take your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape!
Cuban defector - Abreu is mashing. It's been 10 games, but he has been driving in a ton of runs no doubt.
Professor Fenzitter - I didn't feel the need to bash Moustakas again. I told everyone over and over this preseason not to buy into it. Wrote about it multiple times. When will people learn... ? LOL
Ray, I'm surprised Moose didn't make your Judgment Day. So much for spring harbingers. This guy looks totally lost.
Zbeck - A little unclear, but I assume this is a 2-for-2. I'll take the A. Jones/B. Butler side, especially if Butler is 1B elig. If only DH, boy it's even closer. I dont love Pujols, dont like what I've seen this yr either.
Miguel Enguidanos - You could do that. The fact is that none of us know when a player will be hurt. However, when a guy like Braun is already dealing with an issue, that's scary. I would not assume Scherzer will be better this season, but there is no debating that as of right now he is clearly the better of the two physically.
Would you give up Braun to get Scherzer? Braun was a higher draft pick, but Scherzer's value has to be higher the rest of the season, at least for now. Pitchers are always such a risk.
JJ - I would rather have Gattis than Jason. I would call the 3B situation a wash. Given the relatively low up from Jaso, i'd keep your duo. It's a pretty even deal, but I'd pass.
Hey Ray I hope all is well! After week 1 I already got a trade offer in a 12 team standard 5 x 5 (2 catchers) His: John Jaso, Saltalamacchia, Arenado For My: Gattis, Zunino, and Headley Is this a good deal? Thank you!
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The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: Mon-Fri 7-10 PM EDT), Ray also hosts his own show Sunday night (7-10 PM EDT). Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three.
- Jamaal Charles is not expected to play Sunday
- Jordan Cameron expected to play Sunday
- Vernon Davis is doubtful to play Sunday
- MJD is not expected to play Sunday
- Bernard Pierce is doubtful Sunday
- Arian Foster is a longshot to play Sunday
- Wes Welker ready to go, without limitations
- Jamaal Charles remains a game-time decision
- Former Titans K Rob Bironas was killed in crash
- K-Rod Now 10th on All-Time Saves List
I will only be answering start/sit tomm, Sunday, over at @SiriusXMFantasy from 10a-1p EDT. That's where to send your questions.