Houston Texans

After three straight seasons of going 9-7, the Texans proved this offseason to be sick of mediocrity, as they drafted a franchise quarterback for the first time since David Carr in 2002. They’ve got the defense, the skill position players, and in Deshaun Watson, they now have the quarterback. The sky is the limit for this incredibly talented roster, which is why fantasy owners should take notice here.

Fantasy MVP: DeAndre Hopkins

D-Hop may have had a down season last year, but the Texans quarterback play was downright awful. Let’s look back to 2015, when Nuk finished third in the league in receiving yards (1,521), third in the league in receptions (111), and fourth in the league in receiving TD’s (11). With the addition of a capable – albeit rookie – quarterback in Deshaun Watson, Hopkins should have no problems getting back near those 2015 All-Pro numbers, which at the very least will make him the Texans fantasy MVP in 2017.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Deshaun Watson

I’ve already mentioned him several times, and for good reason, as Watson is the first quarterback with serious potential that the Texans have had in a very long time. Sure he’s a rookie, but for two reasons I believe that he can have a huge on field and fantasy impact in 2017.

1) Watson is surrounded by excellent talent.

Like Dak Prescott last season and Russell Wilson before him, talent surrounding a quarterback can do wonders even for rookies. Both QB’s made major fantasy impacts in their rookie seasons, and with similar rock solid skill players surrounding him, I expect the same for Watson.

2) Watson himself is really talented.

This one seems obvious, but Deshaun Watson is not only one of the most accomplished collegiate quarterbacks of all time; he also performed his best against some of the best defenses of all time (National Championship games in 2015 and 2016 vs. Alabama).

With a proven skillset against teams featuring numerous NFL players, Watson’s transition to the pros should be much easier than it was for say someone like Carson Wentz, who didn’t have the benefit of playing Alabama and Florida State. Considering this, I expect an immediate impact from the rookie signal caller, definitely capable of serving as a QB2 in standard 12-team leagues.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: DeAndre Hopkins

I already went in depth on Hopkins’ reemergence in 2017, so I’ll spare you redundancy here. Just know that I am looking to him in a big way this season because of his own talent and also because of the arrival of Deshaun Watson. Keep in mind that Watson, throughout his collegiate career, loved throwing to his number one target in Mike Williams early and often. Like Williams in college, Hopkins should be targeted heavily this season, pushing him back over the 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, 10 touchdowns thresholds.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Lamar Miller

This is no indictment on Miller, nor am I trying to say that he’s undraftable. Miller will be this team’s starting running back, let that be clear, however I believe that the presence of rookie D’Onta Foreman will limit his overall touches – at least around the goal line. Foreman is a load at nearly 240 lbs. and he proved in college that he is an incredibly talented back with his over 2,000 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in his junior season at Texas. He will quickly supplant Alfred Blue as the number two back on the depth chart, while it won’t be long before he starts spelling Miller for a few series per game and inside the red zone. Currently, Miller is being taken towards the end of the second round in most fantasy drafts, which just seems a bit rich for a guy who is unlikely to get many goal line carries.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have weapons and they have the quarterback to get them the ball, the problem remains that they have a weak defense and an embarrassing offensive line. Luckily, improvements were made in both areas this offseason, but the fact remains that Andrew Luck is pretty banged up headed into 2017. A lot hinges on the health and protection of Luck this season, but if last year is any indication, it is clear that Indianapolis still has some fantasy worthy pieces even if Luck can’t go for 16 games.

Fantasy MVP: Andrew Luck

… Having said all of that, Luck is a top-five player in this league when on the field. He’s slated to take the entire preseason off and the hope is that he should be fully healthy once Week 1 rolls around. With improvements to the Colts offensive line and defense, Luck may have one of his best supporting casts yet. Considering that, 5,000 yards and 40 TD’s aren’t out of the question for the Stanford alum, making him one of the most desirable fantasy assets of the season… Just consider all of this tentative however, as we still have no definitive timetable for when he will be back on the practice field. If Luck is ready to go by Week 1, there is no reason that he won’t be this team’s fantasy MVP.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Marlon Mack

In his three seasons at USF, Mack rushed for over 3,600 yards and maintained a career yards per carry average of over 6.2. That type of explosive playmaking has been missing out of the Colts backfield since Edgerrin James laced ‘em up nearly 15 years ago. Sure, Mack is currently fourth on the running back depth chart, but he will quickly prove his significant talent and begin to earn third down reps. By midseason Mack will end up being the proper handcuff to Frank Gore, which should be more than enough to earn him the Colts fantasy rookie of the year honors, especially considering there are no other rookie skill position players worth of his competition.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Jack Doyle

Doyle showed glimpses last season of being an elite fantasy tight end, but he still was being dragged down by having Dwayne Allen ahead of him on the depth chart. Well, now Allen is gone, and the starting tight end job is his for the taking. Whether Andrew Luck is healthy or not, Doyle figures to be an integral part of this Colts passing attack, which should have him easily improve upon his 59 catches, 584 yards, and five touchdowns from a season ago.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Frank Gore

Frank Gore is entering unheard of territory, as fantasy owners will be expecting yet another 1,000-yard season from him, despite the fact that he is 34 years old. For reference, the closest a back has come to reaching 1,000 yards beyond their age 33 season is Emmitt Smith at age 35 with the Cardinals when he tallied 975 yards and five touchdowns... As good as Gore has been throughout his career, he’s no Emmitt Smith. For Gore to be drafted as anything more than a RB3 this season is to expect historical trends to be shattered. As I stated above, Marlon Mack’s presence should cut into Gore’s workload enough to give him proper rest and to keep him healthy, but also keep in mind that at Gore’s advanced age, registering over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns is just out of the question. Getting over 4.0 yards per carry would honestly be a big surprise coming from a back with his extensive career workload.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars looked improved in just about every area last season except for under center. Blake Bortles couldn’t have regressed much worse than he did from 2015 to 2016, and after five interceptions in the first practice of training camp this season, things don’t seem to be looking up in that department much at all. With such regression in the passing game, the team called an audible of sorts and invested heavily in defensive upgrades and in the running game. Now with a seemingly new identity from the Jags, fantasy owners have to prepare for change in their world as well…

Fantasy MVP: Leonard Fournette

It's tough to think of a more physically imposing back to have entered the league in the last 10 years than Fournette. Adrian Peterson comes to mind, but he was a rookie 11 years ago now, so my hot take stands; Fournette is the most physically imposing back of the last decade. Having said that, it makes sense that he would serve as the Jaguars fantasy MVP right off the bat because if he produces anywhere near to what Peterson did in his rookie campaign (1,348 yards, 12 TD's), he'll have a shot at the league MVP, let alone the team's fantasy MVP award.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Leonard Fournette

To refrain from redundancy, understand that if Fournette is going to be the team's fantasy MVP, simple logic states that he would have to be the team's fantasy rookie of the year as well.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Myles Jack

If you read any of my NFL Draft work from a year ago, it is no secret that Myles Jack is one of my favorite prospects of all time. Having said that, it is also no secret that Jack’s rookie season was a disappointment. It wasn’t that he didn’t play well, but it was more that the Jags were so intent on having him learn so many positions, that they couldn’t get him out on the field to start at any of them. This season Jack is moving to middle linebacker fulltime – his natural position – which bodes well for his fantasy potential. Looking at Jack’s skillset, in college he was asked to lead UCLA’s loaded defense from the inside, while he also was used to man up wideouts that their corners couldn’t handle 1v1. Yes, you read that right… Jack could be one of the league’s best man cover corners if needed. To add on top of that unique skillset, Jack was a Freshman All-American running back while at UCLA, as he received both the Pac-12 offensive and defensive freshman of the year awards in 2013. Throughout his career Jack tallied 11 rushing touchdowns and maintained a whopping 5.7 yards per carry average. My point here is that Jack is undoubtedly one of the top-five athletes in the game today, and when given fulltime reps at the middle linebacker position, that usually translates into crazy fantasy production. He’s tough and smart enough to handle the run and rack up ample tackles, while he’s athletic and talented enough to cover anyone, which should lead to plenty of interceptions. With his extensive production as a running back in college, Jack should turn those interceptions into touchdowns far more times than not, making him an all-around IDP fantasy stud in 2017 and beyond.  

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Allen Robinson

I really like Allen Robinson, but I don’t love his situation. Sure he’s a number one target on an emerging offense, but the fact of the matter is that his quarterback stinks. If expectations for Robinson were for him to reach 85 catches, 1,000 yards, and eight touchdowns, then I wouldn’t be putting him on this list, but the fear right now is that some people are expecting him to repeat his 2015 production when he led the NFL in touchdown grabs and neared 1,500 receiving yards. The reality now is that the Jaguars have one of the league’s most talented defenses. Gone are the days of the Jags slinging the rock around 60 times a game trying to dig out of a hole. Beyond that, the addition of Leonard Fournette should drastically dip the number of targets that Robinson sees around the goal line, further proving my point. With a scary defense and a young and hungry running back, the Jaguars are now looking to control clock and win games without giving up more than 20 points. They should be good now, which ironically is bad news for Robinson and his garbage time production that we all have come to love.  

Tennessee Titans

The Titans surprised a lot of people last season, as they emerged as a legitimate playoff contender and did so with several high level fantasy contributors. Quarterback Marcus Mariota played worthy of his billing as one of the league's next big stars, tight end Delanie Walker finished at the top-five of his position, while most importantly DeMarco Murray and the Titans new and improved offensive line developed into one of the league's most fearsome rushing attacks. Looking to build on their collective breakout 2016, fantasy owners should be well aware of what these Titans can do for their fantasy teams in 2017.

Fantasy MVP: Marcus Mariota

As I stated above, Mariota really took a step forward in his second NFL season, as he threw for more yards, more touchdowns, and lowered his interception total from his rookie year. Beyond that easily identifiable statistical reality, also take note that Mariota has far more quietly developed into the greatest red zone quarterback of all time. Over his brief two-year career, Mariota has completed 64-percent of his passes inside the 20-yard line, with 33 touchdowns and an astonishing zero interceptions. Considering the Titans first round draft pick this offseason was 6-foot-3 wideout Corey Davis, who led the nation in touchdown receptions in 2016, chances are that Mariota will only continue to improve in this area. To put it in the simplest of terms, big things are expected from Mariota in 2017; big enough for me to consider him the team’s fantasy MVP even over DeMarco Murray.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Corey Davis

I touched on Davis briefly above and where I see him fitting in to this Titans offense best… At 6-foot-3 and blessed with incredible athleticism, Davis projects not only as a future number one wideout, but also as a true red zone threat. In 2016, as a collegiate athlete, Davis led the nation with 19 touchdown grabs. Combining that fact with Marcus Mariota’s crazy red zone numbers could prove to be a deadly combination for in 2017 and for future years to come.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Derrick Henry

Henry was very productive when used last season, but the fact of the matter is that he played second fiddle to the league’s third leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. On the surface, conventional wisdom would tell you that the same situation would work out in the Titans backfield headed into 2017, as the combination featuring Murray and spelling with Henry proved to be one of the league’s deadliest rushing attacks, however looking deeper into the splits from last season tells a different story. While Murray was fantastic for most of the season, he began to wear out a bit down the stretch, as his final five contests were less than stellar, including zero 100-yard games and only one touchdown. Henry on the other hand saw his biggest production of the season during this final five game stretch, as four of his five touchdowns on the year were scored, as was his season high of 65 rushing yards in Week 17. If that final month’s production of last season is any indication on what is to come in 2017, we can expect the backfield workload to be a bit more evened out going forward. Ultimately, that should spell a huge uptick in production from Henry in 2017, thus making him the team’s most improved fantasy asset.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: DeMarco Murray

I just laid it all out for Murray. I love the player and acknowledge how good he was last season, but the numbers indicate that Henry was becoming more and more effective as the season wore on, while Murray began to break down. Entering his age 29 season, and with ample miles on his legs, it is easy to see Murray regressing a bit, while last year’s second round pick Derrick Henry begins to take on a larger role in the offense. I still think Murray will be more than fantasy viable, however a first round draft selection is one that fantasy owners may live to regret this season.