2017 MLB Two-Start Pitchers: Week 18

There is a nice set of top-level starting pitchers to rely on this coming week, as well an ample collection of middle-tier options. Of course, some of those in the middle tier are not true two-start options, but more matchup dependent to have value. Those towards the bottom of the second tier are generally streaming options depending on the venue and opponent. Then there are those pitchers you should avoid starting this coming scoring period in the final tier, although if you are desperate enough, you could consider streaming one or two of them.

Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

Carrasco, Archer and Arrieta all have tough matchups, but are also pitching so well that you cannot afford not to plug them into your lineups. Nelson has rediscovered the form he demonstrated a couple of seasons ago. Manaea and Nola are pitching like aces these past few starts. While Nola has a start at Coors, he is going up against a struggling Antonio Senzatela. Realize, too, that Darvish may be on another team by the end of July, and that could affect his two-start status.

Cobb has tossed four consecutive quality starts (QS) and has been dominant at home this season. He is not any sort of strikeout option, but demonstrates good control (2.22 BB/9) and generates a good number of grounders (1.73 GB/FB over his 21 starts consisting of 138 innings in 2017). If you are nervous about his ability to produce on the road, where his ERA is 4.84 and his WHIP is 1.37, then sit him but start him against the Brewers at home.

Fiers is potentially on the bubble after his last poor effort: 4.0 IP, five hits, three walks and three earned runs. Brad Peacock though has prior excellent bullpen experience, so when Dallas Keuchel is reinstated, Fiers will likely keep his rotation slot. His 9.19 K/9 ratio over the 111.2 innings he has pitched this season demonstrates his upside, but he also struggles to keep the ball in the park with an awful 1.8 HR/9 rate in 20 starts. He does pitch much better at home, and both starts in Week 18 are in Houston.

Morton has been racking up the wins, with three of his last four starts yielding him a victory. He has a 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2017, both useful ratios for fantasy purposes. He is an elite strikeout artist as well as a pitcher adept at keeping the ball on the ground (10.06 K/9 and 2.13 GB/FB over 82.1 innings). As with his teammate Fiers, his two home starts are a positive for him.

Foltenewicz gets a pair of good matchups, facing Philly and then Miami in Week 18. He does have control issues, with a 3.17 BB/9 on the season, though a 8.21 K/BB ratio shows that he has strikeout skills. He has held opponents to three earned runs or less over his last eight starts and looks to continue that type of performance, although he does need to limit the free passes to move up in the rankings and potentially jump into the top tier.

Sabathia continues to surprise at age 37, although his last start was limited to just 4.1 innings when he gave up four earned runs and a homer to the Rays, and allowed four earned runs. That was only the second time in his last 10 starts that he allowed more than two earned runs, though, so he has been a dependable option this season. He has been a much better pitcher on the road, however, so perhaps it would be wise to bench him for his first start against Detroit. A second start in Week 18 comes against Cleveland, and that poses its own risks.

Kennedy has twirled eight QS over his last nine trips to the mound, making him a dependable SP. He is striking out batters at an average rate, 7.81 K/9, but his control needs work as his BB/9 sits at 3.56. He is a full run better in terms of ERA on the road than at home (3.97 vs 4.98), so his first start at Baltimore holds more promise in Week 18.

Duffy has been inconsistent, with a good start following a bad outing over his past seven starts since May 23^rd. He is coming off a good start, so if the trend continues, it might be wise to sit him when he toes the rubber in Baltimore for his first start, even with him facing Ubaldo Jimenez who sit in the bottom tier. Plus, he has been much more efficient and effective at home, so the second start facing the Mariners lines up as the best time to employ his services in Week 18.

Martinez has been struggling through the month of July, watching his ERA rise from 2.88 on June 27^th, to as still palatable 3.52 following his last appearance against the Rockies at home. He is still striking out a ton of batters (9.58 K/9 over 135.1 innings) and generates a fair number of grounders (1.93 GB/FB over 21 starts in 2017), but needs to get his control in order (3.26 BB/9). Fortunately for him, the walks have not hurt him that badly, as his 1.19 WHIP evidences. He has not been terrible on the road this year, so two road games is no reason to avoid him entirely, but does give reason to consider your other options.

Hernandez is certainly not the ace he once was, with a 4.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his 12 starts to date. He is still demonstrating good control with a 2.37 BB/9, and while not as dominant as he once was, he has a useful 8.43 K/9 over his limited 68.1 innings this season. Having two road starts is not in his favor, either, as he pitches much better at Safeco Field this season.

Taillon gets a pair of home games against teams that while not pushovers, are certainly beatable. He is coming off a terrible start against the Giants on the road, yielding nine earned runs in just three innings, allowing nine hits and a walk with just one K. He is a good source of strikeouts (8.64 K/9 over 76 innings) and he is superb at generating groundballs from opposing batters (2.42 GB/FB), but struggles to find the strike zone as witnessed by his 2.96 BB/9 rate.

Maeda has limitations as a starter, as he does not pitch deeper than the fifth inning generally. In fact, he has only notched three games where he went deeper than five innings among his 18 appearances (16 starts). He has two road games, and has been significantly worse away from home this season (5.65 ERA vs 2.98, 1.45 WHIP vs 1.03 at home). Given his usual limited inning production, his 8.59 K/9 does not fully come into play, although he does have good control (2.45 BB/9). He is more of a desperation starter this week than someone to rely upon fully.

Berrios is a pitcher with great upside, but has been inconsistent this season. His first start is on the road in San Diego, which holds promise. He has been a better home starter, and his second start against the visiting Rangers, while not an ideal matchup, does hold promise. He is still developing as a SP, but an 8.39 K/BB rate makes him a useful streaming pitching option.

Urena has seen his ERA slowly rise during the course of the season, running up from a desirable 3.08 on May 23^rd, to the current 4.04, following an effort against the Rangers on the road in which he yielded five earned runs over 5.0 innings. Although he features a mid-90 MPH fastball, his strikeout ratio is a dismal 6.28 K/9 on the season. Plus, he struggles with his control (3.50 BB/9 over 100.1 innings) and has problems with the long ball as well, giving up 1.4 HR/9 in 2017. Facing Washington at home is not terrible, but then again, not ideal, and heading to Atlanta for his second start is cause for concern.

Samardzija winds up the middle tier, and he could easily have slipped into the bottom tier given his struggles. Examine his stats, however, and it appears that he has been unlucky to a huge extent: .341 BABIP, 3.55 FIP (opposed to 4.85 ERA), 62.6% strand rate and an uncharacteristic 1.4 HR/9 rate. Things should sort themselves out over time, but while he is dealing with his bad luck, he is not a SP to trust.

There are a couple of streaming options in this company of SPs, notably Corbin in his second start against the Giants at AT&T Park, and Estrada for his first start of the week against the White Sox on the road. Other than those two starts, however, you would do well to avoid using any of the 15 pitchers listed in the bottom tier this week.

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