For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers. Pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers and there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up-and-down seasons. And while I agree that, if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.

These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options who, for one reason or another, are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12 team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid to late round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks-why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

 

Wei-Yin Chen – LHP – Miami Marlins

2015 Stats: 11-8, 191.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 153 K’s, 1.22 WHIP

 

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 209.5 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 222.86

FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 16th round (198th overall)

Availability

Chen pitched well for Baltimore in 2015, as shown by his stat line from last season up above. He signed a five-year $80 million deal with Miami, after declining a qualifying offer from the Orioles, with a sixth-year vesting option based on innings pitched. The contract also allows Chen to opt out after the second season. He should slot in as the No. 2 starter in the Marlin rotation, after ace Jose Fernandez, but despite that situation, he is going late in drafts.

Upside

First of all, moving the National League, and particularly from Baltimore’s hitter friendly Camden Yards to the more spacious Miami ballpark should both boost his production. Although it is hard to fault his efforts in Baltimore where he was a model of consistency, failing to pitch at least 185 innings only once in his four years in Baltimore, and only missing a couple of months to injury over that period as well. His fly-ball tendency will be less of an issue in the new home park, allowing him to concentrate on pitching to contact. He has shown a good BABIP, with a .298 in 2015 improving on his still not horrible .305 in 2014 and .307 in 2013. He has four pitches, a rising fastball, change up, slider and curve, but tends to rely on the fastball and slider, over the curve and change up. He relies on his control (5.8% career walk rate) and the command of his riding fastball, which helps him induce pop-ups from opposing hitters.

Downside

His strikeout numbers are nothing to rave about, although he did see an improvement in 2015, posting an acceptable if not fantastic 7.20 K/9 rate, and a 3.73 K/BB ratio in 2015 is certainly going to help his fantasy production. He throws his fastball in the low 90s, leading to his average strikeout numbers. His FIP jumped considerably in 2015, moving up to 4.22 after posting a .396 the prior season. Still, the 2015 number is not out of line with his career numbers, and his ERA, which is what we care about in fantasy, sits at a nice, unassuming 3-year average of 3.57. His splits against right-handed vs left-handed hitters is worrisome, as he allowed righties to post a slash line of .270/.318/.496 as opposed to a stellar .217/.250/.326 when facing left-handed hitters, so you need to potentially sit him when he is going to face a strong right-handed oriented lineup, especially on the road.

Summary

So long as he is not facing a predominately right-handed lineup away from his home park, he should be slotted into your lineup whenever he is slated to take to the mound. Do not expect a ton of Ks, but that number could improve with the move to the NL and being able to face the pitcher instead of a DH. Pitching in a division that features the Phillies and Braves is also a plus.