MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 289 Nunes vs. Aldana Top DFS Picks
UFC 289 Nunes vs Aldana kicks off with the Early Prelims at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:00 PM ET and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM ET only on ESPN+ PPV. The best female fighter of all time, Amanda Nunes, takes on Irene Aldana in a battle for the bantamweight title. Nunes will look to implement her well rounded approach, and superior wrestling against the Mexican striker, Aldana. Aldana’s teammate Alexa Grasso just de-throned the 125 lb. champion Valentina Shevchenko in dramatic fashion, so Aldana will look to keep the momentum of her team moving forward as she looks to dethrone another staple of the Woman’s pound-for-pound rankings. In the co-main event we have a potential number one contender matchup in the lightweight division between Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. We last saw Oliveira when he lost the lightweight championship to Islam Makhachev back in October. Dariush comes into this fight on an eight-fight win streak and knows what a win over “Do Bronx” Oliveira will mean for his resume.
Check out all the latest UFC 289 odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Low | -333/+250 | -130/+425 |
| The greatest female fighter of all time in Nunes takes on Irene Aldana for the Bantamweight title in the main event this week. Aldana is a powerful striker, but she struggles to keep fights standing against the more talented fighters in the division as shown when Holly Holm battered her with 5 takedowns and 150+ strikes landed in a main event a few fights back. The bigger red flag for me is that Macy Chiasson was taking her down in her last fight, and on her way to winning the fight before Aldana landed an up kick to the liver that dropped Chiasson. Nunes has been DraftKings gold for the majority of her fights, and she's one of the few fighters who scores even better if the fight gets to the judges’ scorecards because it usually means she is mauling her opponent from top position. Aldana could finish Nunes if the fight stays standing, and after seeing Nunes gas against Pena I'm more than willing to include her in a few of my lineups, but I'm going to have somewhere around 75% Nunes and expect her to either finish the fight early or land a ton of takedowns in a decision victory. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Miranda Maverick | 9300 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | +280 |
| Normally for a PPV card we see a lot of high-profile fighters coming in as big favorites but this week it is a lot of lesser-known fighters up here so tread carefully. Maverick is well rounded and should be able to take advantage of her wrestling in this spot, as the only fighters who have really stopped her wrestling are soon to be champion of 125lbs Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine is nowhere near that level of fighter. She isn't likely to find the finish, but I wouldn't be surprised if she lands 5+ takedowns in this matchup so she has a really safe floor and the possibility of putting up a monster score if she does find the finish. | |||||
| David Dvorak | 9400 | Stephen Erceg | Somewhat-Safe | -270 | +210 |
| I really like Dvorak to win this fight, but he doesn't wrestle, and he doesn't throw much volume, so I'm concerned how high he scores here without getting the first-round finish. Dvorak should be leaps ahead in the striking department as Erceg is mostly a grappler, and I think there is a chance that as the fight gets later Dvorak does eventually find the finish, but he has never landed more than 70 significant strikes in any of his fights that have gone to decision so if he doesn't find the finish he won't pay off his salary. He did land two takedowns in his loss to Manel Kape, but I don't expect him to use that here since Erceg's only real chance of winning is if the fight gets to the ground. | |||||
| Blake Bilder | 9000 | Kyle Nelson | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +120 |
| Bilder is going to need to get through this first round before he can take over the fight as Nelson normally comes out extremely fast early on but completely fades the later the fight goes. Nelson has good wrestling, but he doesn't have many submissions wins so when he gets it down to the ground, he is more likely to try to go for ground and pound. Bilder is well rounded, and he should be able to win this fight standing, or on the ground via submission once Nelson tires out. I don't love picking expensive fighters who are probably going to be in closely contested fights to start, but he has a ceiling to outscore anyone else in this range outside of Nunes, so I'll be taking plenty of shots. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 9100 | Nate Landwehr | Moderate | -250 | +130 |
| This is a major step down for Ige as he normally fights within the top 10 of the division but here, he has a clear advantage striking, and enough wrestling to at least neutralize what Landwehr has to offer. Ige is one of my favorite straight picks on the card, but it comes down to if I think he is going to be able to score enough to make him worth the price on DraftKings. Landwehr is going to be coming forward from the time they ring the bell so it gives Ige a nice floor since he'll have his opponent in range for the majority of the fight and won't have to worry about chasing him around like Dvorak might have to. Ige is going to be in a bunch of my lineups, but due to the durability of his opponent I won't be extremely overweight on him. | |||||
| Mike Malott | 8800 | Adam Fugitt | Moderate | -210 | -125 |
| Neither of these fighters have seen the judges’ scorecards in their five fights in the UFC so I'm expecting someone to get KO'd here. Malott has never been out of the first round in any of his MMA fights, so I'm concerned about his gas tank if he has to tread into deeper waters which is why I have him ranked so low here despite him having one of the highest ceilings on the card. I like Malott to get the job done here, and I'm considering a small bet on him by submission in round 1 at +450. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Beneil Dariush | 8600 | Charles Oliveira | Moderate | -145 | +150 |
| I love this fight and honestly don't want to pick against either of these fighters, but I have to include Beneil up at the top this week. He's priced reasonably, and while the fight is basically a toss-up, Oliveira has been getting dropped in every one of his fights, so Dariush comes in with a huge ceiling. I think Dariush is the better wrestler and the BJJ between the two is close enough that whoever is on top should be able to control the matchup on the ground. I do have a straight bet on Oliveira strictly due to the odds, but I do believe that in a win Dariush hits the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Nassourdine Imavov | 8500 | Chris Curtis | Moderate | -150 | +260 |
| Imavov should be able to fight tactically and outpoint Curtis from the outside, so I do expect him to win this fight, but my problem with the way he fights is that he doesn't land enough volume to score well. Outside of his five-round fight with Sean Strickland he hasn't landed over 100 strikes in any fight, and his only finishes in the UFC were against fighters who historically quit after one round. I like him to win, but I won't be overly exposed to him here strictly because I think Curtis is tough enough to not get KO'd within three rounds. | |||||
| Aori Aoriqileng | 8300 | Aiemann Zahabi | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +280 |
| This fight is a bit of an anomaly for how it's going to end up playing out. Aori has been in a ton of wars, he lands over 6 strikes per minute, and he absorbs over 7 so he isn't afraid to move forward. Zahabi last time out took on Ricky Turcios in what was one of the worst fights I've ever watched where Turcios landed only 23 of his 230 strikes thrown and Zahabi landed 54 while looking tentative to let his hands go. I'll have both sides of this fight but I'm leaning towards Aori only due to his recent form. | |||||
| Charles Oliveira | 7600 | Beneil Dariush | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +200 |
| The winner in Oliveira's last 5 fights has been scoring well over 100 pts on average and I don't expect that to stop here. Oliveira has the submission skills and KO power to end this fight early and I love him at his price tag, but he does have red flags that are hard to ignore. In his recent championship run he has been getting hit by opponents strikes on over 60% of attempts so he isn't moving to avoid these shots, he just eats them and tries to trade. I'll be overweight to this matchup as a whole since I believe in the mid-range it is one of the more likely fights to end up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 7800 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +300 |
| I absolutely hate Eryk Anders fights because he is so untrustworthy. He has heavy hands, solid wrestling, and somehow can look drastically different from one fight to another. Two fights ago he was the chalk against Park, and he got outworked and didn't land much in a disappointing loss, last time out he comes in at +225 against Daukaus and drops 117 DK pts in a second round KO where he looked like a top 10 fighter. I think Anders could have success wrestling here if he uses it, and he has a ceiling with his power to end this fight early. I don't want to go too heavy on him because of his untrustworthiness but I think if both of these fighters show up at their best, he gets his hand raised. | |||||
| Maria Oliveira | 8200 | Diana Belbita | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +450 |
| This fight is a true pick'em but I'm leaning towards Oliveira. Oliveira was thrown to the sharks in her debut, stepping in to fight former top 5 fighter Maria Rodriguez and was then promptly given Tabatha Ricci who is one of the best grapplers in the division. Despite this Oliveira has been able to hold her own against Ricci and has shown she can even land some of her own takedowns if needed. I'm leaning Oliveira and I think this fight is one of the least owned on the slate so having about 15% of her in my lineups should get me overweight. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 8400 | Eryk Anders | Risky | -150 | +280 |
| If the bad version of Anders shows up on Saturday, Barriault should be able to out volume him and find the finish. I don't want to bank on Anders showing up and looking terrible so I'm not going to have much Barriault. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Adam Fugitt | 7400 | Mike Malott | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +280 |
| Fugitt needs to survive the first round, but if he does Malott will be in unfamiliar territory. Fugitt is a step behind everywhere unless Malott tires, but I do think he has a chance to find a late submission if he can survive the early onslaught. | |||||
| Kyle Nelson | 7200 | Blake Bilder | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +325 |
| I don't think Kyle Nelson is a great fighter, and he probably loses this fight, but at $7200 and +325 inside the distance I'll be taking some shots here. He has five minutes to win this fight, and if it gets out of the first round he falls apart and gets destroyed but for only $7200 he is worth taking some shots. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | 7100 | Dan Ige | Risky | +200 | +400 |
| Landwehr is tough, and he is going to keep moving forward so if he does find a way to beat Ige he ends up on the optimal lineup. I really like Ige in this spot so I'll be underweight compared to the field, but as a fan favorite fighting in his home country he could get a greasy decision if it gets to the judges’ scorecards. | |||||
| Stephen Erceg | 6800 | David Dvorak | Risky | +220 | +500 |
| Erceg needs to get the fight to the ground to have any chance here, and while I don't love his chances, he at least has an advantage somewhere in the fight at only $6800. I'm likely fading him because I rate Dvorak pretty highly, but if you want a submission or bust type of fighter you can take a stab here on what is likely one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate. | |||||
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6900 | Miranda Maverick | Risky | +240 | +1,100 |
| I don't like this matchup at all for Jasmine. She is +1100 to win this fight inside the distance, and if she wins a decision, it’s probably a back-and-forth fight where she scores 65-70 DK pts which won't be enough to hit the optimal lineup unless all of the other underdogs win. I'll be fading her. | |||||
MMA DFS UFC 289 Example Lineup
UFC 289 Live Dogs
Aiemann Zahabi, Kyle Nelson, Eryk Anders, Charles Oliveira
UFC 289 Stats and Picks
Amanda Nunes | vs | Irene Aldana |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 22-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Charles Oliveira | vs | Beneil Dariush |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 33-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-4-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
21 | Subs | 8 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Mike Malott | vs | Adam Fugitt |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 9-1-1 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Dan Ige | vs | Nate Landwehr |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Eryk Anders |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC) |
10 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
0 | ||
Nassourdine Imavov | vs | Chris Curtis |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 30-10-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 17 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
Miranda Maverick | vs | Jasmine Jasudavicius |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 8 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Aiemann Zahabi | vs | Aoriqileng |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 24-9-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Kyle Nelson | vs | Blake Bilder |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 8-0-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
David Dvorak | vs | Steve Erceg |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 1 |
8 | Subs | 6 |
-270 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
Diana Belbita | vs | Maria Oliveira |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
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