NFL Target Analysis: Week 11

Last week I was devoting too much of this space to tight ends, and then they all went out and scored touchdowns. It is nice to have a few more tight ends we feel like we can trust considering just a couple of weeks ago it seemed like Travis Kelce and Darren Waller were the only must-start guys at the position.

• Dallas Goedert looked like a must-start last week, catching five of six targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Zach Ertz practiced last week, and I’ll like Goedert better if Ertz doesn’t play, but at this point, I think you pretty much have to play Goedert no matter what. I think he is probably better than Ertz right now, and we just have to hope the Eagles realize it too.
• Hunter Henry has at least six targets and four receptions in eight of ten games this season. He has scored touchdowns in each of his last two games, and while I don’t necessarily trust that the touchdowns will continue, Henry’s floor is considerably higher than most tight ends.
• We say all the time that not all targets are created equal, but Michael Thomas may be the exception that proves the rule. Thomas had his best game of the season by far last week, catching nine of 12 targets for 104 yards. I’m still skeptical of Taysom Hill as a passer, but I don’t see how you can possibly bench Michael Thomas .
• After the first time it looked like he was breaking out, I called Russell Gage the new Mohamed Sanu and nothing that has happened since then, including his seven receptions for 58 yards on 12 targets Sunday, has caused me to change my mind. Gage had four receptions on eight targets total in the two games Julio Jones missed this season, so there is no reason to believe Gage will be particularly productive even if Julio misses more time with his hamstring injury.
• Michael Pittman only had three targets Sunday after getting fifteen the previous two weeks, but he caught all three for 66 yards and a touchdown. Three targets won’t get it done most weeks, but if Philip Rivers and this offense is able to support a consistent fantasy starter, it will be Pittman.
• I don’t know that we can necessarily draw a straight line between Nick Boyle ’s injury and Mark Andrews recent production, but Andrews has caught 12 of 16 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown in the two games Boyle has missed. Regardless of the reason, his recent production has vaulted him firmly back into must-start territory, even in a tough matchup against the Steelers. I am fine benching Emmanuel Sanders , on the other hand, after he caught four of five targets for 66 yards. Sanders has 11 targets total since returning from the Covid list after he had at least nine targets in his last two games before that.
• On Sunday JuJu Smith-Schuster had his fewest targets since Week 6, though a toe injury certainly contributed it that. He’s still a must-start this week, but I think he is clearly the third fantasy receiver on this team after Chase Claypool scored his 10th touchdown of the season and Diontae Johnson caught 12 of 16 targets for 111 yards. Johnson is now tied for 14th in targets for the season despite only playing nine games.
• Speaking of surprising target leaders, D.J. Moore is tied for 17th after he caught seven of 11 targets for 127 yards against the Lions. Moore, Curtis Samuel , and Robby Anderson all had nine or more targets in the game, and while I’ll like them all better if Bridgewater plays, it is nice to see they are at least capable of success with P.J. Walker at quarterback.
• A.J. Green and Tee Higgins combined for seven receptions on 19 targets for 67 yards Sunday, and Green is the only player in the top 50 to catch fewer than 50 percent of his targets. I’m still not completely certain why Green and Joe Burrow have never gotten on the same page, but I suspect Green is just done at this point in his career, despite scoring his first touchdown of the season Sunday.
• Jerry Jeudy is back to a 50 percent catch rate on the season after he caught just three of eight targets against Miami. I think Miami’s defense is good, but it’s disappointing that Jeudy doesn’t appear to be making much progress as a receiver this season. That being said, he has 40 targets in his last four games, and that volume alone is keeping him in the WR3 conversation.
• Antonio Brown led the Bucs with 13 targets Monday, matching his total from the first two games of the season. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both found the end zone, while Brown still hasn’t, but it feels like a matter of time. It was the second game in a row all three receivers had 13+ fantasy points, and while that streak may end next week, it is hard to imagine benching any of those three during the fantasy playoffs, when they play Minnesota, Atlanta and Detroit.
• Justin Jefferson has obviously made himself an every-week fantasy starter regardless of Adam Thielen ’s status, but I think at best Jefferson’s fantasy value would be the same if Thielen is out. Stefon Diggs didn’t exactly light the world on fire when Thielen missed games in previous seasons, and Jefferson hasn’t reached Diggs level as a receiver yet. I think Jefferson will be a popular DFS play if Thielen is out, and I will probably fade Jefferson if that is the case.