Bye weeks are here. And they won’t quit until Thanksgiving in Week 13. But that’s alright, because the tight end bye weeks are actually spread out pretty nicely, which gives us some good options this week. In fact, there are more solid pay-down options for the NFL DFS Week 5 TE Coach than we’ve had virtually all year. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 5 TE Coach for FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

What we’re going to do this week is give you the two best and safest plays in the top tier if you are doing cash or simply find yourself with extra money. The rest of the picks are going to be fairly affordable - there’s no reason in my opinion to operate in that $3,500+ to $4,500 range on DraftKings. Which is a good thing for us as we can spend up elsewhere on the chalk QBs, WRs, and RBs! Now, let's get to the NFL DFS Week 5 TE Coach. 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks for Week 5

Trey McBride,  Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

As we mentioned in the intro, there are a lot of paydown options this week. So, if we are paying up, we are paying all the way up. And right now, Trey McBride is the clear alpha tight end in the fantasy landscape - in a tier of his own until as long as Brock Bowers is dealing with his knee and QB issues.

Right now, Trey McBride leads the league in the two most important metrics for future production in route participation and target share. He’s among the elite tight ends in virtually everything else, like targets vs. man to man, screen targets, broken tackles, yards per route run, percent of routes run from a WR spot, etc. He’s just the best available option right now, and he’s been relatively matchup-proof proof so if you want to pay up for the sure thing, this is it. 

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $6,000

We prefer Jake Ferguson over on DraftKings, where it is full PPR. The one knock on Ferg is that he is slow - he runs a 4.81. Guys like that need to be peppered with targets to have upside in fantasy. Despite having like five games with double-digit targets, Jake Ferguson has never had a 100+ yard game in his career.

The good news is that Jake Ferguson DOES get peppered with targets. And he’s got a great matchup vs. the Jets this week, where Sauce Gardner will be on George Pickens. So maybe he can get his first 100-yard game. We’re not going to bet on that over on FanDuel, but we will bet on him getting targets. He also leads the league in receptions vs. man to man with 8, which translates well to the red zone - positive touchdown regression could be coming.

 

 


NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks for NFL Week 5

Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $5,200

Look, this is going to be a popular play. But it’s one that any high-level DFS player is going to have to have some exposure to - especially on DraftKings, where they have forced our hand with his low pricing. 

The theory on Darren Waller was always that he could step in and play that Jonnu Smith role. Last year, Jonnu Smith ran ~70% of his routes from a WR spot and produced in a big way because Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill were constantly nicked up.

Well, in his first game back, Darren Waller not only scored two touchdowns, but he ran 87.5% of his routes from a WR spot. And he did what he did on an extremely limited snap share. We expect that share to continue to get ramped up from week to week, so we’ll likely be using Waller until the DFS pricing fully accounts for his upside. It took them weeks to raise the price on Juwan Johnson. 

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,800

When we pay up, we want certainty. We want stud players with good matchups. In the lower range, uncertainty becomes our friend. Most of these guys are known commodities - and what we know is not good. In the case of Theo Johnson, there is at least some room for upside.

Last week, with the switch to Jaxson Dart, we saw Theo Johnson get five targets. It’s his second time this year, so that might not be a fluke. You combine that with the injury to Malik Nabers, creating uncertainty in the target pecking order, and Theo Johnson becomes a decent stab. Johnson quietly has 4.57 speed, which is 93rd percentile per Player Profiler, so it’s not crazy to see him make something happen if he gets a couple of targets and finds some space this week against the lowly New Orleans Saints. 

Like Waller and the next play, this one is also towards the cheap end of the mid-tier. But we have a couple of plays below $3,000, emphasising the affordable options at tight end this week. A lot of these are fairly speculative, but that’s how you win the big bucks in the big contests. If you want something a little safer, this next pick offers at least a reasonable floor with some decent upside. 

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans 

DraftKings: $3,300 | FanDuel: $4,600

Howard Bender always points out that it’s key to dig into a team’s early schedule to figure out how good or bad they are against a position. Here’s how the Cardinals' schedule has gone so far.

  • Saints Juwan Johnson: 8 catches for 76
  • Panthers TEs combined: 10 catches for 74
  • 49ers without George Kittle
  • Seahawks TEs combined: 5 catches for 76 and a TD

So even if the DFS sites don’t show ARI as a bad matchup, sites like FTN fantasy using DVOA show them as a bottom-five team vs. the tight end. Calvin Ridley is nicked up, and they really don’t have many other places to go with the ball besides Elic Ayomanor. We’ve been waiting for Okonkwo to use his 97th percentile speed to rip off some big plays - maybe it will be this week. That possibility makes him a decent play on FanDuel, especially where we rarely get cheap tight ends. 

 

 

 

NFL Week 5 DFS TE Value Picks

Tommy Tremble, Carolina Panthers

DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,600

As we typically see, FanDuel was willing to jump the price on Tommy Tremble after one good week. On DraftKings? Not so much. Tremble was $2,700 last week and only got a boost to $2,900 this week. We’ll take it.

The theory is pretty simple here. When healthy, the Panthers rotate their tight ends. That caps the upside for both Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble. When one of them is hurt, however, they lean on the other one. JT Sanders has had multiple good games with 5 catches, 7 catches, etc., when Tremble is out. But in the two games without Sanders last year and this year, Tremble has gotten 8 targets in each. It worked last week, and it could easily work once again. 

Mason Taylor, New York Jets 

DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $4,700

We liked Mason Taylor as a stash for one simple reason - the Jets have no pass-catchers after Garrett Wilson. The door was wide open. Now, Taylor didn’t walk through that door right away. And there’s no guarantee that the recent trends continue. But his route participation has been decent this season. And he’s gotten 6 and 7 targets over the last two weeks.

This week, the Jets face the Dallas Cowboys, where they are only 2.5-point dogs. The Cowboys' defense has been pretty lame, so the over/under here is 47.5 points. Dallas is actually the 6th worst team vs. the TE so far this season per DVOA over at FTN Fantasy, so we’re feeling pretty good about this play - and the price is insane. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 5

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,300

If you are someone who maxes out tournaments, you’d be wise to have at least a little exposure to Brock Bowers. That’s just good business. But anyone who has been making him the focal point of their strategy so far has almost certainly been bleeding value. He’s been fine in redraft leagues so far, where you just need a floor. But if we are paying up for this kind of price, we need monster days. Right now, it seems like it’s not just the knee but also the quarterback and the playcalling, so I need to see something before we make Brock Bowers a core play again. It could be next week if things turn around. 

Evan Engram, Denver Broncos 

DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $4,900

Evan Engram is one of my favorite players - anyone who has followed me for any amount of time knows that. But I just don’t trust what we are seeing so far. Yes, he got 7 targets this week. But that’s 7 targets out of 42, which is only a 16.6% target share. What concerns me a little more is that he only ran a 60% route participation last week. That’s simply not enough for super high upside. With a matchup against Zach Baun and the Eagles this week, the number one team in DVOA allowing the third fewest points to the position, we won’t be heavy on Engram. If he can carve out a bigger role, we will start mixing him in. 

 

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