It’s all about one man right now - Lamar Jackson. Will the Ravens sign him to a long term deal? Will they trade him? Will they franchise tag him (and which kind of tag will it be)? We’ll at least have that answer by the franchise tag deadline at 4 PM today, March 7th, so we’ll make sure to throw an edit in here when that happens. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the rest of this offense and see how the Ravens might go about getting ready to run new Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken’s Air Raid offense. Or a modified version of it, at least.

 

EDIT the Ravens have placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. That means Jackson is free to negotiate with teams. The Ravens can then either match that deal to keep him or the new team gets Jackson and they send two first round picks to the Ravens.

 

With this series, we are taking a look at each NFL team to gauge the direction of the offense from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. Is this team gearing up for a Super Bowl run? Are they in the midst of a rebuild? Are they considering blowing it up? We’ll take all of that into account as well as the current contracts, upcoming free agents, and 2023 NFL draft class to give you our best recommendations on how to handle these weapons in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.

Recommendations Key

BUY - Attempt to acquire this player at or slightly above market value

HOLD - The player is likely more valuable than the market indicates. Hold them if you have them or try to acquire them at a discount.

SELL - The perceived value for this player is higher than the projected remaining value in your average dynasty league. Cash out now.

SELL/DROP - Depending on the depth of the league, always try to sell guys before dropping. But this player is likely not worth the bench spot he’s occupying so you might need to just drop them.  

*Contract information is proved courtesy of Spotrac.com*

Baltimore Ravens Quarterback

Overview: 

The Ravens have one quarterback under contract for 2023.

Anthony Brown - age 24

Contract: Anthony Brown was elevated from the practice squad so he’s signed for 2023 and they can keep him as a restricted free agent in 2024. He can also be cut with $870K in savings and zero dead cap.

Outlook:  Brown was elevated to the active roster to serve as the backup to Tyler Huntley when Lamar Jackson was injured.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - In the limited time we’ve seen Brown, he honestly does not look ready to be a backup QB, let alone a starting QB in this league. He’s a stash in deep multi-QB leagues at the very best.

FREE AGENTS: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

It’s all about Lamar Jackson right now and we’ll get our answers today as it’s the deadline for the franchise tag (if you are reading this after 4 PM, there is surely an edit below). As of the writing of this article, Jackson has not agreed to a long term deal and the rumors on what could happen here run the gambit. We’re expecting him to get franchise tagged with either the exclusive or non-exclusive tag, both of which would still leave the door open to Jackson changing teams. If it’s the exclusive tag, a trade is on the table and, if it’s the non-exclusive tag, teams are welcome to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. The Ravens can then match that or they can let him walk, in which case they get back two first round picks from the other team. There were reports that Lamar Jackson was somewhat involved in the offensive coordinator search (although not fully) and head coach John Harbaugh said his plans are based on Jackson being there so there are a lot of clues pointing towards his return. There’s also an equal amount of speculation going on suggesting he could be moved but one thing seems clear at this point - they aren’t just going to let him walk via free agency.

EDIT the Ravens have placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. That means Jackson is free to negotiate with teams. The Ravens can then either match that deal to keep him or the new team gets Jackson and they send two first round picks to the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens Running Backs

Overview: 

The Ravens have two running backs under contract.

Gus Edwards - age 27

Contract: Gus Edwards is under contract for 2023.

Outlook: The Ravens liked what they had in the one-two punch of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins so they gave Gus a two year deal in 2021. He then promptly tore his ACL and missed almost all of that season but returned in 2022 to be the Gus Edwards we’ve come to expect.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Gus Edwards is quietly one of only six guys in the NFL to average over five yards a carry on over 500 carries. Here are the other players.

Pretty good company. In fact, if you extend that list to all time, there are only 17 guys on it and Edwards is in the top 10. He’s never finished a season with a YPC below five and he’s currently sitting at 5.2 for his career. This is the exact kind of a guy I like buying for cheap in dyno. He has enough standalone value to throw in your lineup in a pinch and, if the starter gets hurt, now he might have RB1 upside.

JK Dobbins - age 24

Contract: JK Dobbins is under contract for 2023.

Outlook: The contract for JK Dobbins overlaps perfectly with that of Gus Edwards. If they don’t figure out a long term extension, he’ll become a free agent next season. The narrative on Dobbins is that he’s an incredibly explosive talent with high upside but injuries have limited the time we’ve actually seen him on the field. 

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - Dobbins actually has an insane 5.9 yards per carry but he doesn’t make that list above because he only has 226 career carries. If we were to expand that list to anyone with 200 or more carries however, JK Dobbins would be second only to another guy with a slightly better 5.9 yard average - Skeet Quinlan who played for the Browns and Rams back in the 50s. Though his YPC might take a hit if he leaves the Ravens running system, Dobbins would likely see a boost in pass catching on another team which matters a lot more for us in fantasy. So, we are holding Dobbins for now (or trying to acquire him at a discount) to see if the Ravens extend him or if he leaves for a more fantasy friendly spot. Mobile QBs simply take too many TDs for themselves and they don’t dump down to the RB as much as we would like.

FREE AGENTS: Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

In the short term they have their two main pieces. They have the lightning fast JK Dobbins in space and they have the ~240 pound Gus Edwards for short yardage. They’ll need to fill out the roster with some depth - maybe a guy that can catch some balls if Justice Hill isn’t back and then another guy who serves as depth and plays some special teams. The long term outlook is the bigger question as they have two backs and neither are signed beyond this year. Money is clearly on their mind with the Lamar Jackson negotiations and, if they do draft a back this year, that likely means either Gus or JK are not likely to be extended.

 

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers

Overview: 

The Ravens have four wide receivers under contract for 2023 with three signed to reserve/future deals.

Rashod Bateman - age 23

Contract: Rashod Bateman is on his rookie deal through 2024 but, as a first round pick, they can keep him on his fifth year option for 2025 as well.

Outlook: The Ravens thought they could ship off Marquise Brown and start Rashod Bateman in his place so, naturally, Bateman got hurt and missed almost all of the season. GM Eric Decosta recently rubbed Bateman the wrong way when he talked about the Ravens poor perceived track record drafting WRs to which Bateman commented about not being used the right way in the offense. Greg Roman is out as the offensive coordinator so we’re all hoping that Bateman ends up being used in the “right way” moving forward.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - I’m buying any perceived discount on this player and that’s where I think we are right now. Greg Roman has been bottom five in pass attempts in every year as a coordinator except 2021 and Mark Andrews/Marquise Brown got PEPPERED with targets in that season. We wrote last year about how John Harbaugh’s insistence on using a fullback and blocking tight ends helps to highly consolidate the targets among the top two pass catchers which is set to be Andrews and Bateman. If this team actually does throw the ball more, Bateman should be a fairly safe bet in fantasy. And, if things don’t work out for him in Baltimore, maybe he’ll go back to Tweeting snide remarks until the team trades him to a better situation. He’s still only 23 and the age apex for WRs is more like 26-29.

Devin Duvernay - age 25

Contract: Duvernay is on his rookie deal for one more season then becomes a free agent.

Outlook: The system we described in the article linked above has limited the ability of a second WR to produce in this offense though Duvernay did flash to a certain degree while Bateman was hurt last year. He returns both kicks and punts so his roster spot is safe regardless of his usage on offense.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - This guy is a hold right now but I’m willing to buy at market price or below - I’m just not going out of my way to spend up and get him. He’s a double “wait and see” because there is a new offensive coordinator coming in and, if that doesn’t work out, he’s a free agent next year. Todd Monken historically has run the Air Raid system similar to what Kliff Kingsbury ran in Arizona which features a LOT of multi-WR sets. So maybe they do depart from the jumbo offense and do more three WR sets. On the flip side, Duvernay is already the third fiddle on this team behind Bateman and Andrews so he’s already on the outside looking in to some degree. Adding one more WR would vaporize his short term value almost immediately. Then we would REALLY be hoping he leaves in 2024.

Tylan Wallace - age 23

Contract: Wallace is on his rookie deal through 2024. He can be released with ~$770K in savings, ~$340K in dead cap. 

Outlook: Wallace was a Day 3 pick so his upside was already limited. His best bet to make this team is on special teams where he’s done most of his work through the first two seasons.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - If he couldn’t really crack the lineup last year after the Hollywood Brown trade and the Bateman injury, he probably never will. He was already a long shot given his draft slot so he doesn’t need to be held. He’s not necessarily a lock to make the team.

James Proche - age 23

Contract: James Proche is under contract for 2023. He can be cut with $1 million in savings, $42K in dead cap.

Outlook: Another Day 3 pick that had an uphill battle to production. He returned kicks as a rookie but lost that job to Devin Duvernay.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - Given the cap savings and lack of usage in any phase, Proche is a prime cut candidate for the Ravens this offseason. Does not need to be held in dynasty.

RESERVE/FUTURE: Mike Thomas, Andy Isabella, Shemar Bridges

FREE AGENTS: Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

If the Ravens are hypothetically going to run Todd Monken’s Air Raid offense or something similar to it, they need WRs. The system at it’s heart uses both three WR sets and four WR sets where the Ravens have historically used two and often only one WR (Marquise Brown is the only Ravens WR to play more than ~60% of the snaps in a season in the last half decade or so). Monken has already said that wide receivers and quarterbacks are his focus and he loves throwing it so I would not at all be surprised to see the Ravens go after pass catchers in the draft or free agency. Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews should be safe but anyone below them in the pecking order could be in danger. Or, if they don’t bring guys in, they could be in line for an increased role. That’s what makes a guy like Devin Duvernay such a volatile asset right now.
 

Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends

Overview: 

The Ravens have one tight end under contract and two signed to a reserve/future contract.

Mark Andrews - age 27

Contract: Mark Andrews is under contract through 2025.

Outlook: When the Ravens selected Mark Andrews he wasn’t even the top tight end taken in that draft by Baltimore. They took Hayden Hurst first. That’s part of the lore with Andrews and his meteoric rise. We saw him put up a top three season at the tight end position of all time in 2021 so we know he’s capable of big things if they actually throw.

Dynasty Recommendation: BUY - Mark Andrews has been awesome almost despite Greg Roman so we have to be excited about an offensive coordinator coming in saying he enjoys throwing the football. You basically have three tight ends at the top right now in dynasty. Travis Kelce is the best in the business but he’s getting up there in age. Kyle Pitts is still a bit of a question mark but he’s only 22. Mark Andrews is smack in the middle of them as a stud who is still 27 (the age Travis Kelce was when he had his first 1,000 yard season). So Andrews is right there in the conversation as dynasty TE1.

Charlie Kolar - age 24

Contract: Kolar is on his rookie deal through 2025.

Outlook: Kolar spent most of the season on the practice squad and as a healthy scratch so we haven’t seen much from him.

Dynasty Recommendation: SELL/DROP - It needs to be a pretty deep league to hold a tight end who is third at best on the depth chart.

Isaiah Likely - age 22

Contract: Likely is under contract through 2025.

Outlook: Likely was a popular breakout pick but the hype died down a bit as he wasn’t a full time player - it’s not easy to carve out a full time role as a tight end behind a guy like Mark Andrews.

Dynasty Recommendation: HOLD - We are adding Likely from waivers anywhere he might be and trading for him at value but his path to relevancy is a little murky. The good news is that he falls squarely on the pass catching side of the tree - his usage was very similar to Andrews in that he only pass blocked on 2.6% of his snaps and played a ton of slot. It’s hard to come back from ending up on that blocking side. He’s also only 22 and we’ve seen guys like Delanie Walker and Dallas Goedert eventually emerge from behind guys like Vernon Davis and Zach Ertz. Plus, who knows - maybe Likely will get a full time slot role in this Air Raid offense? Worth holding onto for us given how rare it is rookie tight ends flash at all, especially when there is already a stud tight end on the team.

FREE AGENTS: Josh Oliver, Nick Boyle

RESERVE/FUTURES: Ben Mason

Free Agency/Draft Outlook:

They have two pass catching tight ends so they are all set there. The question is whether Charlie Kolar will serve as the blocking tight end or if they need to sign someone. They could bring back Josh Oliver or Nick Boyle though Boyle is getting up there. Or they could sign someone like a Drew Sample or Mycole Pruitt. But those discussions don’t have too much fantasy impact. 

 


Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco for more NFL and fantasy football insights and stay tuned as we hit on all 32 NFL teams in this series leading into NFL free agency!

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