The last game of the regular season is always a special one for us because there are additional incentives and motivations for teams (or lack thereof). This is the last chance for guys to go for contract incentives and the last chance to break records. On the flip side, you have some teams that have already clinched their playoffs and might be willing to rest guys. This creates a huge advantage for us fantasy gamers - especially in Daily Fantasy - so let’s dive in!
*All times below are Eastern Standard Time*
Chiefs @ Broncos - Saturday 4:30 PM
Chiefs Status: Playing to Win – the Chiefs clinch the AFC’s top seed and only bye week if they win and Tennessee loses.
- Chris Jones – Currently has nine sacks and if he gets to 10, he gets a bonus of $1.25 million.
- Tyreek Hill – Currently has 104 catches. Single-season franchise record is 105.
- Travis Kelce – 134 yards away from being the first tight end in NFL history to have 1,200 receiving yards four years in a row.
Broncos Status: Playing to Win – Broncos are out of the playoffs but playing spoiler vs. their division rival
Cowboys @ Eagles - Saturday 8:15 PM
Cowboys Status: Playing to Win(?) – The Cowboys don’t really have an incentive to win but Jerry Jones says they aren’t resting starters and “plan to play to win”. That said, they could play the starters but give other players work as the game progresses.
- Micah Parsons – 1.5 sacks away from rookie sack record of 13 (Jevon Kearse)
- Dak Prescott – Currently has 32 touchdown passes. The Cowboys' single season record is 36 (Tony Romo)
Eagles Status: Potential to Rest – The Eagles have locked up a wild card spot but cannot catch the Cowboys to win the division. Like the Cowboys, they don’t necessarily have much incentive to win.
- DeVonta Smith – Needs 38 yards to break DeSean Jackson’s Eagles rookie receiving record of 912 yards
Colts @ Jaguars - Sunday 1:00 PM
Colts Status: Playing to Win – The Colts could backdoor their way into the playoffs with losses for the Chargers or Steelers but they are in if they simply win.
- Jonathan Taylor – He already broke Edgerrin James’ single-season rushing record but is still in the conversation for MVP and potentially looking to pad his resume. He could also surpass 2,000 rushing yards with 266.
Jaguars Status: Playing to Win – The Jaguars are out of it but can still play spoiler and keep a division opponent out of the playoffs so have no incentive to rest players.
Bengals @ Browns - Sunday 1:00 PM
Bengals Status: Resting Starters – The Bengals have the division locked up and already announced they are resting starting quarterback Joe Burrow. That means it is highly likely other guys could rest too.
- Ja’Marr Chase – Head Coach Zac Taylor said Chase could potentially play as he needs just 45 yards to set the single-season rookie receiving record. He’d be unlikely to play the whole game regardless however.
Browns Status: Uncertain – The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs with no incentive to win. With the Bengals resting starters, the Browns may opt to do so as well.
- Jadeveon Clowney – Has a sack incentive that increases from $500,000 to $750,000 if he has nine sacks (currently has seven). He also has playing time bonuses at 60% and 70% of snaps (currently at 60.51% so just needs to maintain playing time).
Bears @ Vikings - Sunday 1:00 PM
Bears Status: Uncertain – No report on whether they will rest starters or not but with repots this might be Matt Nagy’s last game, my guess would be they play to win.
Vikings Status: Won’t Rest Starters – Mike Zimmer made it clear that the Vikings will not rest starters this week.
- Justin Jefferson – Needs 124 yards to break Randy Moss’s team record of 1,632 receiving yards
Steelers @ Ravens - Sunday 1:00 PM
Steelers Status: Playing to Win – The Steelers need to win to stay in playoff contention.
- TJ Watt – Has 21.5 sacks which is only one behind Michael Strahan’s NFL single-season record of 22.5.
Ravens Status: Playing to Win -- The Ravens need to win to stay in playoff contention.
- Mark Andrews – With 141 yards this week he could set the NFL's single season-record for a tight end.
- Calais Campbell – He has a number of sack and playing time incentives that are highly unlikely to be reached
Titans @ Texans - Sunday 1:00 PM
Titans Status: Playing to Win -- The Titans control their own destiny and can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win.
- Harold Landry – Needs one sack to move to second on franchise sack list
- Denico Autry – Needs one sack for a career high
- Rex Burkhead – Gets $135,000 if he plays 30% of the overall offensive snaps this season. He’s played 33.5% so far so just needs to play his typical snap share.
Football Team @ Giants - Sunday 1:00 PM
Football Team Status: Potentially playing to win -- Washington has been eliminated from playoff contention but there have been no reports so far that they will rest starters. They also have the incentive below for their QB that they may care about.
- Taylor Heinicke – If Heinicke plays 60% of the snaps and Washington wins he will earn a $125,000 incentive (his base salary is only $1 million so not an insignificant sum).
Giants Status: Uncertain – The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention so have no incentive to win, but there are no reports that they could rest starters.
- Mike Glennon – Reportedly has a playing time incentive in his contract but is unlikely to start this week.
- Kenny Golladay – Incentives for 1,200 yards, 80 receptions, or 10 TDs which he will not achieve.
- Kyle Rudolph – has similar yardage, receptions, and TD incentives though the numbers have not been disclosed.
Packers @ Lions - Sunday 1:00 PM
Packers Status: Potential to Rest – The Packers have no incentive to win this week as they have the first-round bye locked up. However, it’s been reported that they'll likely play their starters and then possibly rest them as the game progresses.
- Aaron Rodgers – Earns $100,000 if he is top-three in completion percentage (currently fourth). This is not volume-based, so he could achieve the milestone and still exit the game.
- Aaron Rodgers – Earns $100,000 if he’s top-three in yards per attempt (again not volume based).
- Aaron Rodgers – Earns $100,000 if he’s top-three in total touchdowns. He’s currently tied for third with Justin Herbet and Patrick Mahomes and he’s only one ahead of Josh Allen and Joe Burrow; so there is incentive to play the full game with this one.
- Davante Adams – Would break Jordy Nelson’s team single-season receiving record with 22 yards.
- Preston Smith – Has earned $750,000 in incentives with nine sacks and, if he gets one more this week, that total doubles to $1,500,000. He has additional incentives at 12 and 14 sacks that could bring the total earnings over $3 million.
Lions Status: Uncertain – There are no reports of the Lions resting starters and, given Dan Campbell’s attitude in general, it seems likely they play to win.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – Needs 14 yards to pass Roy Williams’s record for Lions rookie receiving yards.
Patriots @ Dolphins - Sunday 4:25 PM
Patriots Status: Playing to Win – The Patriots could still win the AFC East if they win and the Bills lose, so they will be playing to win.
- Dont’a Hightower – Has playing time bonuses at 65%, 70%, 75% and 80% of team snaps. At 67% on the season, 75 and 80 are out of reach but 70% is possible.
- Nick Folk – Has a number of bonuses he can earn this week by finishing top-ten or top-seven in field goals made, having a conversion rate over 90%, or making the All Pro team. He’s currently second in field goals with a FG rate of 92.1%.
- Kendrick Bourne – Hits an additional incentive at 800 receiving yards. Currently has 776.
- Davon Godchaux – Bonus at 60% playing time.
- Lawrence Guy – Bonus at 45% playing time.
Dolphins Status: Playing to Win – The Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs but will play spoiler vs. a division rival.
- Xavien Howard – Can earn $2.5 million in playing time incentives by maintaining a snap share over 90%. He also has Pro Bowl and All-Pro incentives.
- Jalen Waddle – Currently has 99 receptions. The current NFL rookie record is 101 set by Anquan Bolden.
Jets @ Bills - Sunday 4:05 PM
Jets Status: Playing to Win – As with the Dolphins, the Jets are eliminated and playing spoiler.
Bills Status: Playing to Win – The Bills can clinch the division with a win or a Patriots loss
- Stefon Diggs – He earns $1.55 million with 100 catches. He currently has 94.
- Stefon Diggs – He earns $1.55 million with 1,375 receiving yards. He needs 231 yards to make that happen.
- Josh Allen – He could break a number of Bills records he currently already holds from last season for completions, yards, and touchdowns.
Seahawks @ Cardinals - Sunday 4:25 PM
Seahawks Status: Uncertain – The Seahawks are eliminated from the playoffs but could play spoiler. No reports so far of starters resting.
- Russell Wilson – Earns $250,000 for finishing the year with completion percentage above 66%. Currently sits at 65.2%.
Cardinals Status: Playing to Win – The Cardinals can still win the NFC West with a win and a Rams loss.
- AJ Green – Has multiple incentives in his contract. He earns $250,000 bonuses at 50, 60 and 70 receptions (currently has 50). He also hits $250,000 bonuses at 600, 700, 800 and 900 yard marks (currently has 825 yards). A big day could earn him another half a million dollars.
- Markus Golden – If he can get to 13 sacks, he gets another $1 million bonus (currently at 11).
Saints @ Falcons - Sunday 4:25 PM
Saints Status: Playing to Win – The Saints clinch a playoff berth with a win and a 49ers loss, so they will be playing to win.
- Taysom Hill – His contract is almost entirely incentives-based. so it’s difficult to comb through it all. The one that sticks out is a $250,000 bonus if he has six rushing TDs (currently has five). That bonus goes to $500,000 if he has eight rushing TDs.
- Mark Ingram – Has yardage incentives he's unlikely to hit
Falcons Status: Playing to Win – The Falcons are eliminated but are playing spoiler vs. a division rival.
- Kyle Pitts – Pitts needs 59 yards to break the record for rookie tight end receiving yards set by Mike Ditka.
49ers @ Rams - Sunday 4:25 PM
49ers Status: Playing to Win – The 49ers control their own destiny and also have a backdoor to the playoffs. If they win they are in, but they are also in if the Saints lose.
Rams Status: Playing to Win – Like the Niners, they control their destiny but also could make moves with help. A win clinches the NFC West, but a Cardinals loss would also do it even if they lose.
- Cooper Kupp – Needs 12 receptions to break the single-season record for receptions.
- Cooper Kupp – He could also break the single-season record for receiving yards with 136 (171 away from 2,000).
- Matt Stafford – Needs 352 passing yards to break 5,000 for the season. With 390 he would break his personal record of 5,038 set in 2011.
Panthers @ Buccaneers - Sunday 4:25 PM
Panthers Status: Uncertain – The Panthers are eliminated but there are no reports that they plan to rest starters.
- Hasson Reddick – Has 11 sacks currently and gets a $1 million bonus at 13.
Buccaneers Status: Playing to Win - We don’t need to speculate here as Bruce Arians already said the team is playing to win and to get the second seed. There are also a number of incentives and milestones guys could hit.
- Tom Brady – Can earn $562,500 if he’s top-five in passer rating. He's currently 8th and Kirk Cousins is fifth at 101.3.
- Tom Brady – Can earn another $562,500 if he’s top-five in completion percentage or yards per attempt, though these are more difficult to hit.
- Rob Gronkowski – As detailed in our DFS TE Coach article this week, Gronk has three different incentives all worth half a million dollars that he can hit if he has seven catches, 85 yards, or three touchdowns this week.
- Mike Evans – Mike Evans needs 54 yards to have 1,000+ yards in eight straight seasons.
Chargers @ Raiders - Sunday 8:20 PM
Chargers Status: Playing to Win -- This game was flexed to the night slot for good reason - the winner is in the playoffs and the loser is likely out. If the Chargers win they are 100% in and if they lose they are 100% out.
- Justin Herbert – Could surpass 5,000 passing yards with 369 yards this week. He could also set the Chargers record for yards (172 more yards) and completions (29 more completions).
- Joey Bosa – Could set the Chargers' record for forced fumbles with one this week.
- Keenan Allen – Could set the franchise record for receptions with five this week.
Raiders Status: Playing to Win – The Raiders are in with a win but they could also sneak in with a tie and a Colts loss, or a loss but also losses from the Colts and Steelers.
- Derek Carr – Could surpass 5,000 passing yards with 382 yards this week.