This is the third article in this series. Checkout part one and/or part two if you haven't already done so.
Houston Rockets
Bust: Dwight Howard- Superman averaged 15.8 points (tied for second-lowest in his career), 10.5 rebounds (worst since his rookie season), and a career-low 1.3 blocks per game over 41 games played last season, another career-worst. Those are definitely not Superman-type numbers. However, those are still solid considering only seven other players in the NBA averaged at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. Howard just isn’t worth investing in rotisserie leagues because the block numbers are way down and he destroys your free-throw percentage. Basically, he is Zach Randolph but with a better field goal percentage and more blocks per game. Howard is actually a nice value option in total points leagues because his poor free-throw percentage will not hinder the overall fantasy output. Expect his points per game, and hopefully his blocks per game, to increase a bit this season, but remember that he will cripple roto teams, which is why he is considered a potential bust. He can be a quality value pick in total points leagues if you get him late enough.
Value: Ty Lawson- The agile point guard is being forgotten in drafts because of his DUI arrests and the fact that he now plays for the Houston Rockets. Look, whatever off-the-court issues he is dealing with, it shouldn’t hinder his fantasy value (save for possibly serving a suspension). Lawson averaged 9.6 assists per game last season (third-highest in the NBA) and he averaged 8.8 assists the season before, so last season’s assists were certainly no fluke. He will also contribute about one three-pointer per game and throw in a steal per game as well. I believe Lawson is going to flourish in Houston because he will rack up the assists and get plenty of open looks with James Harden and Dwight Howard drawing most of the attention from defenses. I’m not worried about Patrick Beverley stealing a lot of minutes because he [Beverley] is severely limited on offense and doesn’t have the all-around talent be a starting NBA point guard. Lawson could easily be a top 30-40 player in fantasy who will get drafted as top 70-80 player.
Pacers:
Bust: George Hill- The veteran point guard had a career-year in 2014-15 by posting career-highs in points (16.1), assists (5.1), field goals made/attempts (5.9/12.4), field goal percentage (47.7), and rebounds (4.2) per game. Expect all of those to regress this year. Last season, the Pacers’ Paul George was missing in action for pretty much the entire season and Hill had to play more minutes because of the lack of options behind him. It is completely different this season as George, the Pacers’ savior, is back in action and the team also signed Monta Ellis, who has one of the best mid-range games in the league. That means Hill is going to be, at best, the number three scoring option for Indiana. His assists will likely dwindle to roughly four per game as Ellis takes away some of those passing numbers as well. Hill has a decent floor, but also a fairly low ceiling, which is why he’ll be more of a bust than a quality fantasy contributor.
Value: Myles Turner- The rookie center is going to see plenty of minutes as he is currently slated to be the starting center for the Pacers. The guy put on quite a show during summer league play by exhibiting the ability to knock down mid-range jumpers and block shots at an impressive rate. Turner’s fantasy value is only going to increase throughout the season as he gets accustomed to NBA play. Jordan Hill is nothing more than a backup center in the league, so while he’ll play 20-plus minutes a game, he shouldn’t steal minutes away from Turner.
Clippers:
Value: Lance Stephenson- “Born Ready” was not ready to play for the Hornets last season as he completely flopped in Charlotte. He will get a fresh start with the Clippers, who will need his play-making ability off the bench. Stephenson still averaged 4.5 rebounds and almost four assists per game last season. The 8.2 points per game really hindered his value though. Sir Lance-A-Lot will see his scoring increase a bit and it’s possible he ends up averaging double-digit points with four-plus rebounds/assists per game, which should make him a great pick at the end of any fantasy draft.
Bust: Paul Pierce/ Jamal Crawford- Simply put, Pierce is old and is with the Clippers more for his veteran presence and leadership, than his basketball prowess. The Clippers are going need Pierce for the playoffs, so they will rest him throughout the regular season. Be true to yourself by avoiding “The Truth” in all fantasy formats. Crawford scores points in bunches, but he really doesn’t contribute in any other category. His ceiling is as limited as his fantasy value.
Lakers
Value: Jordan Clarkson- I’ve already discussed how much I love Roy Hibbert’s value in fantasy drafts in my “Players Who Gained Fantasy Value” piece. That means I have to give someone else their due. That man will be Clarkson, who blew up post all-star break by averaging 16.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, with just over one three-pointer made per game over 28 games started. Clarkson is slated to be the starting point guard with D’Angelo Russell expected to come off the bench. This is a versatile roster so there will be times where Clarkson and Russell will be playing together. Either way, Clarkson is slipping in fantasy drafts for no particular reason. Do the smart thing and invest in a late-round pick on him.
Bust: Nick Young- There are very few players I loathe more than Young. I refuse to even mention his dumbass nickname. This is the prototypical “Hey, I’ve heard of this guy before so I will draft him” yet, he doesn’t do ANYTHING even remotely well on a basketball court. Ok, that may be a bit harsh, but Young is really good at taking a lot of low percentage shots that clank against the iron. There is absolutely no reason to own this guy in fantasy because of his lack of consistent playing time and ability to not produce stats in any category.
Grizzlies:
Value: Zach Randolph- The double-double machine continues to be one of the most underrated players in fantasy. Z-Bo literally put up the same exact stats as Greg Monroe did last year. Granted, Monroe has a higher upside this season, but Randolph has averaged a double-double in eight of the past nine seasons (he was hurt the only season he didn’t average one). To be able to get a player of Z-Bo’s caliber in the sixth or seventh round of a draft is crucial in solidifying your rebounding stats.
Bust: Jeff Green- The Grizzlies’ shooting guards and small forwards are going to be a headache for fantasy owners. Courtney Lee, “The Grindfather” Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, Vince-sanity, and even Jordan Adams will also see playing time at both positions. Green brings athleticism to the table, but he lacks the one thing the Grizz desperately need – long-range shooting. People will draft Green because of his name, but he is unlikely to play more than 25 minutes per game or contribute in any of the main categories on a consistent basis. Pass on this Green.