We have just two games across the NBA on Thursday, March 30th, so our normal NBA DFS playbook is condensed today into a write-up. Despite having just two games on the docket, we have plenty of star power in Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum taking the floor. We're awaiting,a few key pieces of news that revolve around Nikola Jokic and Robert Williams' statuses.

 

 

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks

O/U: 236.5

Spread: MIL -2.5

Boston Celtics

Boston is trailing the Bucks by three games in the standings for the overall number one seed so this is a very meaningful game as we hit the home stretch of the regular season.

This is a big-time pace-up spot for Boston and that puts Jayson Tatum in play. Tatum scored 41 points in his previous meeting against the Bucks and he takes his 33% USG and 1.34 FP/min averages to the floor tonight. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic taking the floor, Tatum could be the forgotten star. We know the upside Jaylen Brown has as well, but he’s a secondary play for me.

It looked as if Derrick White, Marcus Smart, and Malcolm Brogdon were going to play high-20’s-to- 30-plus minutes and all are secondary plays. I lean Brogdon’s way of all three considering his 22.5% USG and 1.02 FP/min is much superior to the other players numbers.

Robert Williams is listed questionable with the Celtics on the front end of a back-to-back and if he plays, it would take me off Al Horford. Horford’s .84 FP/min without Williams on the floor is solid.

Top play(s): Jayson Tatum

Secondary play(s): Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back after the Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday put the team on their backs and lifted them to a win. With Khris Middleton expected back, that won’t be needed, but Antetokounmpo is obviously still a priority at full strength. WHen looking at Middleton and Holiday, over the 200 minutes they’ve shared on the floor together, Middleton has the higher USG at 22% but Holiday averages 1.05 FP/min to Middleton’s 1.00.

With the Bucks at full strength, everyone else are GPP darts. Brook Lopez leads the charge, but nothing else really stands out.

Top play(s): Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary play(s): Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez


 

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

O/U: 226.5

Spread: DEN -5.5

New Orleans Pelicans

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans considering it’s a pace down spot for the team as Denver is 26th in March in pace. Denver is only 18th in DRtg over that span, so they can be exploitable defensively. We’re keying in on Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum here. Ingram has averaged 52.4 DKP/game over his last five outings. McCollum has a 28.5% USG rate and averages 1.05 FP/min without Zion Williamson this year.

The wings are OK here, but not priorities. Trey Murphy is playing big minutes and is really scoring at a solid clip, averaging 21 PPG over his last five outings and has put up 32 DKP or more in three of his last four games. Herb Jones is a GPP game breaker when his shot is falling because his primary role is defense. Getting to the likes of Josh Richardson and Naji Marshall make sense if you’re digging for value and trying to spend up on Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo or both.

The interior options for New Orleans is where things get interesting. Jonas Valanciunas had been playing monster minutes until he didn’t last game and Larry Nance actually played 24 minutes to Valanciunas’ 24. If you look at the three meetings New Orleans and Denver have this year, Valanciunas has averaged just 17 MPG while Nance is at 21. Nance is an interesting dart.

Top play(s): Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Larry Nance (GPPs)

Secondary play(s): Trey Murphy III (borderline top play), Jonas Valanciunas, Herb Jones

Denver Nuggets

The interest we have in Denver tonight lies in the hands of Nikola Jokic. Jokic is listed as questionable and if he sits, it’ll open up the floodgates to everything else. It’s hard to break them down in writing with/without him, so I’m going to list my top plays in both scenarios below.

If Nikola Jokic plays;

Top play(s): Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray

Secondary play(s): Bruce Brown, Michael Porter Jr.

If Nikola Jokic sits;

Top play(s): Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Zeke Nnaji, Bruce Brown

Secondary play(s): Kentavious Caldwell-Pope