We are down to just three races remaining in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. Last week Denny Hamlin was able to punch his ticket to the championship race in Phoenix, so he has a lot less to worry about over the next two races. This week we get the final superspeedway race of the season as NASCAR returns to Talladega Superspeedway.

Talladega generally produces more chaos and we’re used to calibrating our NASCAR DFS lineup building process to lean into said chaos. But we’re in the Round of Eight with some superspeedway specialists sitting 15+ points below the cut line and there’s a spot in the championship on the line with very few opportunities remaining to clinch a spot. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR DFS YellaWood500 picks for our lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Talladega Superspeedway

Talladega Superspeedway is the largest oval on the NASCAR schedule measuring in at 2.66 miles in length. It’s longer, wider, and banked higher than Daytona International Speedway, which is the only other true drafting track on the NASCAR schedule. Sure, Atlanta’s re-configuration requires more drafting as well, but that track is more than a mile shorter than Daytona and Talladega.

Casual fans watch these races for The Big One. This style of racing requires the field to run in one big group and that invites carnage. 30+ cars driving around the track at nearly 200 miles per hour can breed accidents and cautions.

Surprisingly, based on the trends table above, that hasn’t been the case of late. Last year’s race saw only 22 lead lap finishers, but since 2023 Talladega is seeing 27.6 drivers finish on the lead lap on average. That’s about 70% of the field. And the winner’s starting spot is all over the place. Austin Cindric won here in the Spring after starting P7. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won this race a year ago starting outside the top 30.

It’s always hard to predict how these races unfold. We say it with almost every Daytona/Talladega race, but we can do all the research in the world for these races and at the end of the day we’re trying to get lucky with our lineups and hope we can avoid the wrecks that eliminate our drivers from contention.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

These scoring trends are par for the course for a superspeedway. The drivers starting further back offer the safest floor because if they wreck they aren’t costing you many points with negative position differential. And if they move up and finish well, the positive PD is helping.

Drivers starting inside the top 15, and more specifically the top 10, are a tremendous risk for our NASCAR DFS lineups. You need them to run a near perfect race. And that means not losing too much track position, collecting some dominator points, and either finishing well or just outright winning the race.

You’ll hear the term “stack the back” for DFS slates when NASCAR goes to Daytona and Talladega. With this strategy you leave a ton of salary on the table and start drivers starting outside the top 12 rows as you look to target PD upside and good finishes. Based on the scoring spot charts up above, that’s not a terrible strategy.

We don’t typically target dominator points at a superspeedway. Across the entire race we may see just one or two drivers collect double-digit fastest laps and those usually go to a car running towards the back of the pack. But we do have a few drivers that tend to run up front in drafting races and I’ll be sure to highlight them below. At the end of the day we still need those lap leaders to finish well to help our lineups climb the leaderboards.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: YellaWood 500

We don’t have practice notes this week as NASCAR doesn’t want to risk any drivers wrecking their car in practice at tracks like Talladega, Daytona, and Atlanta. So the field just shows up and performs single-car qualifying even though this race is run in one giant pack.

 

YellaWood 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

All of Team Penske

This section will collectively mention Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Austin Cindric so we can cast a wide net and get exposure to win equity. Now I’m also writing up Team Penske ahead of qualifying so depending on how things shake out, we may only need to play one or two. But we know the aerodynamics of the Ford body make it ideal for pushing in the draft. And all three of these drivers have had success on superspeedways.

Cindric is the cheapest of the three drivers but he’s the sixth most expensive driver on DraftKings and fifth most expensive on FanDuel. My concern is that he may have to follow team orders and help Logano or Blaney get the win to qualify for the championship race. But I’m also of the mindset that if he has a chance to win, he should take it. Let’s not forget he got off to a real stong start at Daytona and Atlanta in the spring but just didn’t have the finishes to back up the running position. He led 106 total laps between those two races before going to victory lane at Talladega later in the spring to lock himself into the playoffs.

But most of the attention will go to Blaney and Logano. These are the only two drivers who have won a Cup Series championship in the NextGen era. The entire field wants to avoid Penske making it four straight driver championships. Blaney has won at Talladega three times in his career while finishing as the runner-up on two occasions. He’s also won at Daytona twice, most recently in August. Blaney currently sits 31 points below the cut line.

We don’t normally account for dominator potential at superspeedways because the fastest laps are fairly spread out among the field. However, Logano has led 113 laps in the last four Talladega races. In fact, he’s led double-digit laps in 15 of the last 23 races at this track. So he can get up front which we like. Sadly in the NextGen era he doesn’t have a single top 15 finish at Dega, but that just speaks to the variance we see in these races. He does have wins here from 2015, 2016, and 2018. He’s a previous winner at Daytona and he’s won at Atlanta twice in the NextGen era and he’s 24 points below the cut line. This whole team has the field rather nervous because they know Penske can get their cars up front and collect stage points, and possibly a win. In doing so, that would guarantee at least one of their drivers a spot in the championship race at Phoenix in two weeks.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Similar to Logano and Blaney, these next two drivers we’re about to preview carry some win equity, have good history at superspeedways, and they’re also below the cut line. William Byron has the best average in the NextGen era at Talladega (7.0). Byron has finished third in back-to-back races at this track and he was the runner-up in this race two years ago. Over his last five races at Talladega, he has not finished worse than 7th. In addition to that he has three career wins at Daytona, including a pair of Daytona 500 victories. In his last five races here, he’s gained at least six spots of positive position differential in each performance.

Because of the resume I just outlined, it may not be the worst idea to actually fade him or at least go underweight. Talladega and Daytona don’t care about what you’ve done in the past. Even with Byron and his impeccable track history at these tracks, he’s not safe or immune from The Big One for Sunday’s race. But there’s no denying his upside and win equity based on the track history and we know he’ll be aggressive to get above the cut line and possibly win his way to race for the championship in Phoenix.

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

While Byron is currently 15 points below the cut line, Elliot is 23 points below as he’s just barely ahead of Blaney and Logano. Elliott has the second-best average finish (10.9) at Talladega since 2022, just behind his teammate, William Byron.

Elliott grabbed a top five here in the spring and won this very race three years ago. Moreover, like his teammate, he is routinely running very well at these tracks. Over the last seven races at Talladega, he’s finished outside the top 10 in stages 1 and 2 just twice. 

Elliott also has won at Atlanta’s new configuration twice in the NextGen era, most recently this past summer. He’s probably my least confident recommendation in the top tier but I also need to set my own personal feelings aside because we truly don’t know how this race will unfold come Sunday.

And I will add a note that while I’ve technically highlighted five drivers in this section, we do need to keep an open mind when building lineups. It’s highly unlikely all five finish well. In fact, it’s probable that one wrecks at the very least. So I do like these five drivers based on their track history and narratives, but we need to be leaving salary on the table and selling out for some big PD plays as well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

Easy layup pick right here. Chalky? Absolutely. Stenhouse is a very good “plate” racer and he’s excellent in the draft. He’s a previous Daytona 500 winner and he won this very race a year ago even though he wasn’t eligible for the playoffs. He won from P32 in last year’s fall race at Dega. He’s easily in play because he starts P37 for the 2025 rendition.

There really isn’t much analysis needed for this play. You basically lock him into cash games and can go as heavy or as light as you want in tournaments. In the spring this year he started P35 and finished 12th. In the spring of 2024 he started P33 and finished 4th. He just has a knack for starting deep in the field and moving up, thus putting himself in the optimal lineup.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $8,000

Bubba got bounced from the playoffs and yet, he’s priced this far down on DraftKings and FanDuel? Surely, he should be closer to $8,500-$9,000 on DraftKings. Pricing largely doesn’t matter for a superspeedway race because we try to leave salary on the table to make our builds as unique as possible.

But Bubba’s a solid drafter and superspeedway racer. He won here four years ago, prior to the NextGen era, but he’s finished top 10 in each of the last two Talladega races after he started P20 and P26. This past spring, he was top five in each of the first two stages. He also has three separate runner-up finishes at Daytona.

Bubba can race all out for the win on Sunday. Both he and teammate Tyler Reddick got eliminated from the playoffs. The owner of his car, Denny Hamlin, is locked in for the championship race so Hamlin’s not going to need any help. Bubba also has no loyalty to Joe Gibbs Racing so he can go out and chase his second win of the season and be a bit selfish.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,000

Suarez is a phenomenal value pick on FanDuel, but he still works as a mid-range play on DraftKings because salary is largely irrelevant this week. In the NextGen era he has an average finish of 17.0 at Talladega which is 12th best among active full-time drivers.

He has four top 10 finishes in his last six races here and he gained 15 spots of position differential this past spring. He finished 13th in this year’s Daytona 500 and was the runner-up at the season finale Daytona race just a few months back. And of course, he’s a previous winner at Atlanta. Suarez rolls off P26 for this race so he’s more of a fringe cash game play, but we love this play for tournaments given the top 10 equity he’s flashed in recent years at the comparable tracks.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $9,500

Among drivers with at least six Talladega races under their belt in the NextGen era, Bowman has the third best average finish (13.0) behind teammates William Byron (7.0) and Chase Elliott (10.9). Bowman isn’t a playoff eligible driver anymore so there are some concerns similar to Austin Cindric that he could be forced to follow organizational orders and help Byron/Elliott, who are 15 and 23 points below the cut line respectively.

Bowman is a legendary qualifier at Daytona, but that hasn’t translated to Talladega. So he’s been a decent source of position differential at this track. This past spring he started P18 and finished 7th. In this race a year ago he started P23 and finished 16th. He also has four finishes inside the top six at Daytona dating back to the 2023 season. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,000

Austin Dillon is a nice pivot for tournaments in this range, but I’ve already highlighted plenty of tournament options starting in the top 20. Hocevar is a good enough cash game option that we can still throw into tournament lineups. Dillon is a previous winner at Daytona so he may have more win juice. But Hocevar offers more PD.

Hocevar has gained 18+ spots in position differential in three straight Talladega races. This past spring he finished 6th after starting P28. A year ago in this very race he started P37 and finished 14th. In the spring of 2024 he started P35 and finished 17th. We don’t typically leave too many value drivers out of the pool below for superspeedways because it’s wise to spread exposure around in this range and find good leverage. Hocevar won’t come at an ownership discount but it’s hard to ignore his upside.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $4,200

Jones is a very strong plate racer and this kind of race balances the field out as the level of equipment doesn’t matter as much. In the NextGen era, Jones has an average finish of 14.6 at Talladega. This past spring he started P34 and finished 18th. A year ago he grabbed a top five in this race after starting P30. He also had a run of three straight races of finishing exactly 6th from 2022-2023 and he led 51 laps combined in that span. Overall, in the last seven races at this track he’s finished 6th or better in over half of them.

He also has similar success and upside at Daytona. Over the last four races at the World Center of Racing, he’s finished 17th or better including three top 12 finishes. Even in this year’s season finale he started P26 and finished 5th with 10 laps led. Sunday’s outlook is no different. He starts P30 and possesses immense upside and potential to finish in the top 12.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $3,800

Allmendinger is always a strong value when we come to these tracks. And the funny thing is that he hates this style of racing but he’s pretty damn good at it if we’re being honest. Allmendinger won here in the Xfinity Series in 2022 and he had a pair of runner-up finishes at Daytona at the XFIN level too.

The results at the Cup level haven’t been as good but he’s been decent at Atlanta. I like paying down to Allmendinger because of the experience, subtle top 10 equity, and the fact that he’s averaging 8.3 fastest laps per race over the last five Talladega races which is behind only Carson Hocevar (9.3).

Dinger did finish top 10 in each of the first two stages this past spring but finished 24th which just means he was stuck in the pack on the final green flag run. It happens as drivers get shuffled out of line sometimes, but I like putting Allmendinger in here as a gut call with some upside among our NASCAR DFS value picks.

Shane van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $3,500

I’m pretty happy with where SVG qualified. He starts outside the top 30 but he doesn’t start far enough back where he’s a lock as a “stack the back” kind of play. Earlier this year at Daytona, he started P26 and he was P36 in the first Talladega race. He came in with soft ownership for each race (my memory recalls him being under 15% owned).

The track history here isn’t great. But he did finish 16th in the regular season finale at Daytona and he even led six laps. We’ve touched on playoff drivers that really need a win. We’ve highlighted some tournament plays starting in the top 20 in addition to cash game options that offer PD. SVG is a tournament-only play.

But this recommendation is more game theory than anything else. It’s entirely possible he goes overlooked because the field is concerned about the lack of experience in drafting tracks. You may even find yourself only needing 20% exposure to this play. Because if he is under 15% owned for this race, then you have leverage. And if he wrecks, then you still have a majority of your lineups still in play.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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