We have a 13-game MLB DFS main slate on Saturday, July 29th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a fantastic slate littered with top pitching options such as Aaron Nola, Bailey Ober, and James Paxton, while offenses to spend up like the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Cincinnati Reds are on the front of everyone’s mind. Oh, it’s another Coors Field slate too, by the way! That’s why we must dig into the depths of the MLB DFS value plays and pick some winners. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections – MLB DFS Ownership, and all of our tools HERE! Let’s dive into our favorite daily fantasy baseball value plays of the day.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks (DraftKings - $6,200, FanDuel - $6,200)
Brandon finally Pfaadt for our money his last time out. Yes, it’s pronounced fought. I’ll see myself out. Anyways, Pfaadt fired his first career quality start in his last start and looked pretty good outside of the home run ball as he allowed three solo shots. He struck out six batters too against a good Cincinnati offense IN Great American Ballpark, so that has to be a confidence builder. He draws a match-up against the Mariners who rank in the bottom-10 in OPS, 19th in wOBA, and have the second-highest K-rate at 26% against right-handed pitching. There isn’t a lot of quality value at the pitcher spot today but Pfaadt is someone to consider at this tier. He just needs to keep the ball in the yard.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals (DraftKings - $3,700, FanDuel - $3,300)
Sometimes we just find prices that make us scratch our heads and while Nootbaar is this cheap, there’s NO reason he should be under 4K on DraftKings but here we are. He hit two home runs yesterday and has three bombs in his last two contests. Over his previous 10 games, Nootbaar has slashed .344/.500/.750 with four home runs, 12 runs scored, six more batted in, and 10 walks. He faces Jameson Taillon today and Taillon’s primary weakness has been with left-handed bats. He’s allowing a .287 ISO, .410 wOBA, and a LOT of fly balls and it’s going to be another hot day in St. Louis which is going to cause the ball to travel far. There is risk with this game due to some thunderstorms, so monitor that situation leading up to lock.
Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers (DraftKings - $3,600, FanDuel - $2,900)
Things have gone the opposite direction from where they were earlier this year for Bryce Elder and he’s really struggling lately so insert Sal Frelick, one of Milwaukee’s hottest hitters, and use him at these cheap price points across the industry. Frelick has started off his major league career with a bang going 7-for-16 with eight runs, one home run, three runs batted in, and six walks. Elder has allowed lefties a .174 ISO and .331 wOBA over the last 30 days, which is in line with his recent struggles. Look for Milwaukee and Frelick to get after Elder today.
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins (DraftKings - $2,700, FanDuel - $3,100) & Eduard Julien, Minnesota Twins (DraftKings - $3,300, FanDuel - $3,400)
I know Minnesota largely let us down on Friday, but nothing like dipping your toes back into that same well sometimes when the field isn’t, that’s called recency bias, and sometimes recency bias can take you off good plays because they’ve contributed to losing recently. That said, the Twins are in a fantastic spot against Jordan Lyles who struggles with left-handed bats, which is where Kirilloff and Julien come in. Lefties have a .254 ISO, .364 wOBA, and 13 home runs against Lyles this year. Both guys have a .400+ wOBA against right-handed hurlers this year while Julien has a robust .268 ISO and Kirilloff’s isn’t too bad at .194.
Chicago Cubs Outfield (sans Cody Bellinger) vs. Adam Wainwright
If you remove Cody Bellinger from the equation, the Cubs' outfield is being handed to us on a silver platter. Obviously, Bellinger’s in play too, but this is a value article. Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, and Seiya Suzuki are all in play and are all far too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings, but especially on DK. Happ’s scored double-digit DK points in four-of-six and is averaging north of 10 DKP/game over his last 10. Tauchman is hitting .314 with a .923 OPS, two home runs, and 17 combined runs/RBI over his last 10 games too. Suzuki has a .320 wOBA against righties and has scored at least one run in five straight games. Adam Wainwright is the real reason why I’m so interested in the Cubs and that’s because of how bad he’s been. Right-handed hitters have a .168 ISO and .385 wOBA while lefties have notched a .327 ISO and .493 wOBA. How do we NOT attack him from all angles?