Target Watch: Championship Week

Given the way NFL coaches have handled their players in Week 17 as division titles and playoff berths are secured, most fantasy football leagues – at least the ones run by people with the good sense to know better – have their championship game in Week 16. If this is that week and you are alive and well, congratulations. It’s been one of the most whacked-out seasons in recent memory and to last this far into such a bizarre year, you deserve as many accolades as I can bestow upon you. From an insane number of injuries to top-ranked players to a massive decline at the running back position, it took a serious amount of work to get this far. If there’s no prize at stake in your league, those clowns who failed to make it this far should at least take you out for a few beers on them.

But as the great Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over til it’s over,” and guess what…? It ain’t over. You’ve got one more week to get through. And of course, no one is making it easy on those who have advanced, especially Odell Beckham and the NFL.

Now at the time of writing this piece, Beckham is still suspended for one game with the assumption that he will miss Week 16 against the Vikings. The worst timing ever? No doubt. But there seems to be a glimmer of hope as his appeal will be heard Wednesday and a decision will be made as to whether he sits or plays. His counterpart in last Sunday’s shenanigans, Josh Norman, ended up with a fine of just over $24,000. He too was flagged for a number of unsportsmanlike conduct penalties as well as at least one unnecessary roughness call. The two battled back and forth with slaps and grabs and punches, to the point where both should have actually been thrown out of the game. Yes, Beckham’s WWE-like flying head butt was certainly inexcusable, but as we’ve seen, he did not get into that head space on his own.

The reason Beckham owners have a glimmer of hope right now is something we’ll refer to as #BatGate. I don’t know why I feel the need to add the hashtag, but for the sake of people discussing it on social media, I’ll leave it in. For those who just didn’t care enough to hear any more of this story, a new wrinkle developed afterward when it was learned that the Panthers, Norman included, threatened Beckham during pre-game warm-ups with a baseball bat they supposedly bring out with them for motivation. The player wielding the bat was some knucklehead jerk-off from the practice squad, but Norman was among the group of Panthers who were together at the time of the incident. There was even a comment later from Deion Sanders who learned that Norman told Beckham that he would end the Giants’ receivers’ career at the time the bat was being pointed at him.

Now, obviously there’s a whole lot of “he said, she said” here, but the fact remains that Norman, whose post-game comments seem to allude that he was the injured party here and a non-participant in the bush-league antics we saw on the field, should also be suspended. No, he didn’t leave his feet to throw a helmet-to-helmet hit, but his behavior throughout the game can, in some ways, be construed as just as bad. For Norman to receive only a fine, if this pre-game #BadGate bullshit is true, is a joke. Not only should he garner the suspension, but the practice squad idiot should be banned from the sideline and any Panther who even touched the bat should receive some sort of a penalty.

Trash talk is one thing. Threats of physical violence are another. In an era where the NFL is over-ridden with gun-toting thugs and guys who like to beat on women (yes, you may now appropriately insert a joke about Beckham’s hair), words are, and should be taken, just as seriously as the actual punch, or head-butt in this case. If Norman is not suspended, there is a reasonable chance that Beckham’s will be lifted and turned into just a substantial fine. At least the fantasy community can hope.

Now let’s talk targets…

Week 15 Target Leaders

Zach Ertz, TE PHI – Every year, someone in your league goes bananacakes over Ertz and drafts him like he’s a top-five tight end who’s about to have his most-explosive season and every year, it’s the same old story. He’ll see an average of six or seven targets per game, rack up 60-odd yards and do nothing else.  Then suddenly he has a big game and that guy who suffered through yet another disappointing season is back driving the bandwagon. Ertz is impossible to trust, especially here in championship week. However, his 13 targets here are encouraging as they are coming on the heels of a five-catch, 98-yard performance in Week 14 and gives a touch of hope that he will be a strong target option once again this week. After all, the Redskins rank 25^th in the league against the tight end. Depending on who your other options are, Ertz just might warrant a look here.

Kamar Aiken, WR BAL – It seems reasonable enough to assert that it doesn’t matter who is under center for the Ravens, Aiken will get his no matter what. He’s averaging 10.3 targets per game over his last six with three touchdowns in that span. Save for this 128-yard performance, the yardage numbers aren’t eye-popping, but for a WR3 or flex play, there probably aren’t a whole lot better out there. A Week 16 matchup against a porous Steelers secondary looks ripe for the pickin’.

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT – It’s a bit of a head-scratcher as to why Wheaton was so under-utilized throughout much of the regular season, but since the bye in Week 11, Wheaton has now averaged 9.3 targets per game and has three touchdowns in his last four. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant still lead the way, but Wheaton has really locked into that WR3 role with the team. The Ravens' secondary is having as much trouble these days as the Steelers’ is.

Denard Robinson, RB JAC – It was as if the entire fantasy community was waiting for something bad to happen to T.J. Yeldon they were so eager to start the man they affectionately call “Shoelace. “ From a standard league perspective, the day was kind of a bust considering the hype, but from a PPR view, Robinson was at least a worthwhile play thanks to 10 targets and eight catches. There’s a foot sprain in play for this week, so monitor the practice reports, but with a matchup against the Saints, it’s going to be tough to pivot away from him.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Sammy Watkins, WR BUF – It really hasn’t taken Watkins all that long to finally break into the overall leaderboard. His target rate continues to climb and should be much closer to 20 percent after this week. Robert Woods is out for the season and Charles Clay’s back issues have hindered his production. Meanwhile, Watkins has 36 targets over his last four games with six touchdowns and an average of 114.8 receiving yards per game. Tyrod Taylor is locked onto him and will continue as such this week when the Bills face the 16^th-ranked Cowboys pass defense.

Michael Floyd, WR ARI -- While the 15.7-percent target rate isn’t all that high, it has been on the steady rise for more than just a few weeks now. Larry Fitzgerald’s ankle issue and role change has seen his target rate drop while John Brown and Floyd continue to see an increase in looks. Floyd has now seen 29 targets in his last three games and should continue to see an increase this week as the Cardinals face the Packers in what could be a preview of this year’s playoffs. If Fitzgerald were to start at his normal spot as the Cards’ WR1, then his matchup looks super-tasty on paper, but given the way things have progressed lately, Floyd looks like he could actually be the better play this week.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA – Granted, the Dolphins have been a veritable disaster recently, but this matchup with the even more hapless Chargers bodes well for the passing game. With Landry seeing a team-high 30 percent of the red zone targets, there’s an excellent chance that he finds the end zone at least once this week with a strong possibility of more. He hasn’t scored in the last three games, but that should not be a deterrent for you. I won’t say he’s due, but…well…he kinda is!

Danny Woodhead, RB SD – Be careful with over-estimating Woodhead after his four-touchdown Week 15 performance. His red zone targets rate jumped from 20.6 percent last week to a mark of 23.9 which actually makes him the No. 1 targeted running back inside the 20. While all that’s well and good and he’s got a soft matchup with the Dolphins this week, he should not be started over a regular running back who’s going to see 15-20 carries. I’m not saying don’t use him. Just be choosey where you do.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 16 Matchup to Watch

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints – Save for the Drew Brees owners who now have to sweat through the plantar fasciitis concerns this week, everyone should be anxious to see how this game unfolds. Even with Garrett Grayson or Matt Flynn under center, the Jaguars’ 30^th-ranked pass defense which allows an average of 261 passing yards per game and has given up 25 touchdowns through the air this season, is soft enough for even a couple of backups to thrive. Obviously, we’d feel better about Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and Benjamin Watson if Brees were under center, but at this point of the fantasy year, we’re just grateful for the matchup. And speaking of grateful for the matchups, how happy are all the owners of Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas? That group should post a fantastic points total against a Saints defense that ranks dead-last in the league, allows an average of 276 passing yards per game and has given up an astounding 39 passing touchdowns this season. Start ‘em all!