Despite finishing third amongst all fantasy baseball third basemen in fantasy points per Yahoo! Fantasy scoring in 2024, Matt Chapman is the 12th third baseman taken off the board by NFBC ADP since January 1st.

Is it because he plays in San Francisco? Is it because fantasy baseball players don’t think last season is repeatable? Let me debunk all of that and tell you why Matt Chapman could finish as a top-five player at the position again.

 

 

 

Matt Chapman Stats (2024)

Matt Chapman, since first bursting onto the scene in 2017, has had very solid pop and has hit as many as 36 home runs back in ‘19. In fact, he’s hit 24 or more home runs in all but two seasons he’s played in full, and one of them was the covid-shortened season, and the other was his final year in Toronto.

He had a resurgent year in 2024 in his first season with the Giants as he belted 27 home runs, scored 98 runs, and drove in 78 more. There’s absolutely room to think the run production side of things increases. Matt Chapman played 154 games last year and here’s the list of Giants’ players that played at least 130 games:

The Giants went out and added Willy Adames and will have a healthy Jung Hoo Lee hitting in front of him, so there will be much more traffic on the basepaths for Chapman, a player that has driven in 90 runs in a season before.

There’s a lot to like about Chapman’s profile last season. Here’s what we’re looking at per Baseball Savant:

On top of that, his expected home runs in San Francisco was 26 and he hit 27, so there was no drop off whatsoever, because 40% of his home runs were considered no doubts. 

One of the more interesting parts of Matt Chapman’s game in 2024 was the stolen bases, quite honestly that was the most interesting piece, because is it something we can buy into? The Giants were second to last in stolen bases last season and only had two players steal double-digit stolen bases and it was Tyler Fitzgerald and Matt Chapman. 

The interesting part for Chapman is that he had stolen 11 bases in his entire career prior to ‘24 and swiped 15 last season. Buying into the stolen bases could make or break his true ceiling, because he was fifth in the league at third base in that category.

Per Baseball Savant, Matt Chapman has an 84 sprint speed, which is way above league average and could help him translate into a solid base stealer moving forward. I think it’s reasonable to believe he won’t top his career-best 15 steals, but there’s reason to believe he once again notches double-digit bases taken.

 

 

 

Matt Chapman Fantasy 2025

As Chapman enters his Age-32 season, he’s been incredibly durable. Putting his rookie campaign of 2017 and Covid-19 shortened season of ‘20, he’s played at least 140 games in each of his other six seasons in the majors, including 150 or more in four of those six.

In every season he’s appeared in at least 150 games he’s notched:

  • 600 plate appearances
  • 27 home runs
  • 75 runs
  • 72 runs batted in
  • 64 walks

He’s been an incredibly productive player throughout his career and that wasn’t lost when he landed in San Francisco. Not to mention he got a massive contract extension for six years and $151M at the end of last season.

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Projections 2025: Matt Chapman

The few things that could hurt Chapman owners in specific formats are the strikeouts and the batting average. Chapman’s projected batting average by multiple sites is .240, which is on par with his career. 

He was at .247 last year with an xBA of .250, so maybe a glimpse of an improvement in his new situation. Not to mention the K-rate was down to 24.4%, which was the lowest mark since 2019, and the average trending up and the strikeouts trending down seem to correlate together.

This screenshot above also shows an improvement in the contact department according to FanGraphs. O-contact is pitches outside of the zone, Z-contact is pitches in the zone, and he had a career-high contact rate at 79.2% on his swings. All things directly correlated to his slightly improved average. If he’s around a .250 hitter again this year big things are coming.

There are 11 names being drafted ahead of him at third base this year and more than half of them come with question marks from durability, to inconsistencies, to first year as a full-time player, etc. Chapman doesn’t come with any of them and because of that, has a legit opportunity at being a top-five fantasy baseball 3B again in 2025.